Arm Holdings (ARM) Stock on December 11, 2025: Oracle Shock, 200‑Day Breakdown and the AI Growth Story

Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARM) is back in the spotlight today as its share price slides alongside other AI‑linked names, even while Wall Street’s growth forecasts and AI narratives stay aggressively bullish.

On December 11, 2025, Arm stock is trading around $135, down roughly 5% on the day, after briefly falling below $134 and under its 200‑day moving average near $138. ^[1] The move comes as disappointing Oracle earnings trigger a sharp pullback in AI‑related stocks and reignite “AI bubble” worries across global markets. ^[2]

Key Takeaways for Arm Stock Today

Price action: ARM has broken below its 200‑day moving average (around $137.81) and traded as low as $133.60, down about 5–6% intraday. ^[3]
Macro driver: A steep Oracle sell‑off and rising skepticism about AI spending profitability have dragged down many AI and chip names, including Arm. ^[4]
Fundamentals vs. sentiment: Arm just posted 34% revenue growth and a strong Q3 forecast, with analysts projecting rapid earnings expansion into 2027–2030 — but the stock still trades at very rich multiples. ^[5]
Street view: Wall Street’s average 12‑month price target is about $179.80, implying ~30–35% upside from current levels, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating. ^[6]

1. How Arm Holdings Stock Is Trading on 11 December 2025

Intraday on Thursday, Arm shares crossed below their 200‑day moving average of $137.81, hitting a low around $133.60 before last trading in the mid‑$130s, down roughly 5–6%. ^[7]

Across major data providers and Arm’s own investor site, the stock’s 52‑week range sits around $80.00–$183.16, underlining just how volatile the post‑IPO trade has been. ^[8]

Market data sites also show:

Today’s range: roughly $133–$138 so far. ^[9]
10‑day average volume: around 3 million shares. ^[10]
Trailing P/E: often quoted in the 170–200x area on current earnings estimates, depending on the source and exact price snapshot. ^[11]

The key technical development is the break below the 200‑day moving average. Nasdaq’s technical note flags Arm as one of the stocks making a “notable cross” under this widely watched level on December 11, a move many traders interpret as a sign that momentum has shifted toward the bears, at least in the short term. ^[12]

2. Oracle’s AI Reality Check and Why It Hit Arm

Arm is being dragged into a broader AI sell‑off rather than reacting to company‑specific bad news today.

Oracle’s latest quarterly results missed revenue expectations and came with heavier‑than‑expected AI‑infrastructure spending, which raised uncomfortable questions about whether huge AI capex is yet translating into sufficient profits. ^[13]
Oracle shares dropped more than 11–15%, wiping out tens of billions in market value and spooking investors across AI‑linked hardware and software names. ^[14]

In London, City Index’s Fawad Razaqzada noted that “names in the broader AI universe” — including Arm Holdings, Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD — traded sharply lower as traders re‑examined whether AI valuations had run ahead of fundamentals. ^[15]

U.S. market wrap pieces echo the theme:

Barchart’s session commentary lists Arm among the biggest decliners in the Nasdaq‑100, with the stock down more than 3% early in the session as Oracle’s plunge hit big‑cap tech broadly. ^[16]
Benzinga highlights semiconductor stocks selling off after Oracle’s earnings, calling out Arm alongside Nvidia, AMD and other AI‑sensitive chip names. ^[17]

In short, Thursday’s drop is about AI sentiment and macro positioning, not a new Arm‑specific downgrade or guidance cut.

3. Fundamentals: A Strong Quarter and Bullish AI Guidance

Behind the volatility, Arm’s most recent numbers still look robust.

In early November, the company reported second‑quarter fiscal 2026 results (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025) and issued an upbeat forecast: ^[18]

Q2 revenue: about $1.14 billion, up 34% year‑on‑year, beating analyst estimates near $1.06 billion.
Adjusted EPS: roughly $0.39, versus consensus around $0.33.
Royalty revenue: up about 21% to $620 million, helped by newer Armv9‑based designs.
Licensing revenue: jumped around 56% to $515 million, boosted by the timing of larger, high‑value contracts.

For the current fiscal third quarter, Arm guided to around $1.23 billion in revenue at the midpoint, ahead of Street expectations near $1.1 billion, with management explicitly citing booming AI compute demand and adoption of its Compute Subsystems (CSS) as key drivers. ^[19]

The shareholder letter and executive commentary highlight:

Growing Arm share in data‑center CPUs, where Arm believes it can approach ~50% share of CPUs deployed by major hyperscalers by 2025.
Expanded use of Arm designs in custom silicon, such as Google’s Axion processors, which Google says deliver around 60% better performance per unit of energy than comparable x86‑based parts. ^[20]

Put simply, the quarter reinforced the thesis that Arm is one of the main “picks and shovels” suppliers for AI computing, monetizing both higher‑royalty new architectures and richer subsystem IP.

4. Strategic Moves: South Korea “Arm School” and Qualcomm’s v9 Pivot

South Korea chip‑design school

On December 5, Reuters reported that Arm and South Korea’s industry ministry have signed a memorandum of understanding to create a chip design school in South Korea. ^[21]

Key points:

The program aims to train about 1,400 high‑level chip design specialists between 2026 and 2030. ^[22]
It targets South Korea’s relatively weaker system‑semiconductor and fabless segments, strengthening the local AI and chip ecosystem. ^[23]
Simply Wall St argues that the initiative deepens Arm’s ecosystem moat in AI, even if it doesn’t dramatically change near‑term financials. ^[24]

This fits Arm’s broader strategy of embedding its architecture deeply into national and industry AI roadmaps, which can translate into higher long‑term royalty volumes.

Qualcomm shifts flagship chips to latest Arm tech

In October, a separate Reuters exclusive revealed that Qualcomm has moved its flagship phone and PC chips to Arm’s latest v9 architecture, with features tuned for AI workloads. ^[25]

Highlights:

The move follows a legal dispute between the two companies and is seen as a vote of confidence in Arm’s roadmap, since Qualcomm could have shifted more aggressively toward alternatives. ^[26]
Arm charges higher royalties for newer architectures, so this migration could lift Arm’s revenue per device, even if the exact impact is hard to quantify. ^[27]
Reuters notes that while RISC‑V is a rising rival, it is still “decades less mature” than Arm and has a smaller developer base, reinforcing the durability of Arm’s ecosystem in the medium term. ^[28]

Taken together, the South Korea initiative and Qualcomm news underline how central Arm remains to the global AI and mobile‑compute stack, even as investors obsess over short‑term macro and AI bubble narratives.

5. What Wall Street’s Forecasts Say About ARM Stock

Analyst and data‑provider forecasts remain aggressively optimistic about Arm’s growth trajectory, though opinions differ on whether that growth fully justifies today’s valuation.

Consensus rating and price targets

MarketBeat’s ARM forecast page, updated with today’s price around $135, shows: ^[29]

Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy”
27 analyst ratings:
- 0 Sell
- 8 Hold
- 18 Buy
- 1 Strong Buy
Average 12‑month price target:$179.80
- High: $210
- Low: $135
- Implied upside vs. ~$135 share price: about 33%

Recent target moves gathered by StockAnalysis include: ^[30]

Loop Capital: target raised from $155 → $180 (Strong Buy).
J.P. Morgan: target lifted from $175 → $180 (Buy/Overweight).
UBS: target trimmed slightly from $200 → $195 but kept at Strong Buy.
TD Cowen & Mizuho: both maintaining Buy ratings with targets in the $180–$190 range.

Analysts broadly frame Arm as one of the highest‑quality ways to participate in AI compute growth, albeit at a premium price.

Revenue, earnings and valuation metrics

Forecast snapshots from StockAnalysis and StocksGuide show just how steep the expected growth ramp is: ^[31]

Revenue trajectory (fiscal years ending March):
- FY2025: $4.01 billion (actual)
- FY2026E: $4.94 billion (+23%)
- FY2027E: $6.02 billion (+22%)
- Out to 2028, some narratives model ~$7.4 billion revenue and $2.3 billion earnings, implying ~21–22% compound annual growth.
EPS trajectory:
- FY2025: about $0.75
- FY2026E: $1.76
- FY2027E: $2.34
- Outyear models extend EPS toward the $3–5+ range into the early 2030s.

On valuation:

StocksGuide estimates a current P/E near 180x based on today’s price and near‑term EPS, falling toward 80x (2026) and 60x (2027) if forecasts are met. ^[32]
Simply Wall St’s fair‑value framework arrives at roughly $167.97 per share, implying about 20–30% upside from the mid‑$130s, depending on the real‑time quote. ^[33]

In plainer language: analysts see Arm growing fast enough that today’s nosebleed multiple could “grow into” something merely expensive — but not ludicrous — over the next few years. The Street’s debate is less about whether earnings grow, and more about how much of that growth is already priced in.

6. Key Risks: RISC‑V, China and Customer Concentration

Underneath the AI enthusiasm, several structural risks feature heavily in recent research notes and in Arm’s own SEC filings.

RISC‑V and the open‑source CPU threat

Arm’s Form 20‑F explicitly warns that many major customers support RISC‑V, and that if this free, open‑source architecture gains broader adoption, customers may choose to use it instead of Arm’s proprietary IP. ^[34]

Recent commentary adds color:

Yahoo Finance and other outlets note that China, Arm’s second‑largest market, is rapidly pivoting toward RISC‑V, raising the risk of slower growth or share loss in that region. ^[35]
Reuters has reported that China is preparing a national policy to boost RISC‑V usage nationwide, as part of its strategy to reduce reliance on Western IP. ^[36]
Industry analyses from EE Times and other sources emphasize RISC‑V’s customizability and royalty‑free model, making it particularly attractive in cost‑sensitive or geopolitically constrained markets. ^[37]

At the same time, Reuters’ Qualcomm piece underlines that RISC‑V is still far less mature than Arm, with a smaller developer ecosystem — one reason big players like Qualcomm are doubling down on newer Arm architectures instead of jumping ship wholesale. ^[38]

China, export controls and customer concentration

Analysts also flag:

High customer concentration: In FY2025, a majority of Arm revenue came from a handful of large customers and Arm China, amplifying the impact of any single customer’s strategic shift. ^[39]
Geopolitics and export controls: U.S. restrictions on advanced chip exports to China create both uncertainty and potential demand shifts for Arm‑based solutions, especially as Chinese firms seek alternatives like RISC‑V to avoid Western IP chokepoints. ^[40]

SoftBank ownership and financial engineering

SoftBank Group remains Arm’s majority owner, with sources like SoftBank’s own filings and public profiles placing its stake at around 87–90% in recent years. ^[41]

Additional moving parts:

In October, Reuters reported that SoftBank was in talks to raise around $5 billion via a margin loan secured by Arm shares, underscoring how central Arm has become to SoftBank’s financing strategy. ^[42]
When AI sentiment sours — as on December 11 — SoftBank’s stock tends to trade in sympathy, magnifying volatility around the Arm “complex.” ^[43]

For Arm shareholders, this concentration means SoftBank’s strategic decisions and balance‑sheet maneuvers can influence Arm’s trading dynamics, even if the underlying business is performing well.

7. Outlook: Short‑Term Pain, Long‑Term Leverage to AI

Today’s price action is a snapshot of a familiar story in high‑growth tech:

In the short term, Arm is trading like a high‑beta AI proxy. Oracle’s earnings and macro worries about AI capex economics are driving risk‑off flows, pushing ARM below key technical levels and amplifying intraday swings. ^[44]
Under the surface, fundamentals and forecasts still point to rapid revenue and EPS growth, with Arm deeply embedded in smartphones, cloud data centers, automotive and emerging AI infrastructure. ^[45]
Valuation is the lightning rod: even bullish models that show 20%+ annual growth for the rest of the decade still leave Arm trading at a high‑teens to low‑20s EV/sales and rich forward P/E multiples, depending on whose estimates you use. ^[46]

For investors and traders, the central question after December 11, 2025 is not whether Arm will play a major role in AI — almost every major forecast assumes it will — but whether the current price properly reflects the balance between AI‑driven upside and structural risks like RISC‑V, China, and customer concentration.