Updated: December 12, 2025
Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARM ) is back in the spotlight on December 12, 2025 , after a sharp pullback pushed the stock to the mid-$130s and below a widely watched technical level near its 200-day moving average. At the same time, fresh analyst commentary is reiterating the longer‑term growth narrative around Armv9 royalties, Compute Subsystems (CSS), and data-center adoption—while other research notes warn that rich valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
Below is a full, publication-ready roundup of the latest news, forecasts, and analysis shaping ARM stock today.
ARM stock price today: where shares stand on Dec. 12, 2025
Arm shares closed at $136.14 on Thursday, Dec. 11 , down $5.38 (-3.80%) . In pre‑market trading early Friday, Dec. 12 , the stock was indicated around $135.00 . [1]
Key reference points investors are watching:
- 200‑day moving average support: around $137 , where technical commentary says ARM recently “fell below” that level. [2]
- 52‑week range: roughly $80.00 to $183.16 , underscoring how volatile the post‑IPO ride has been. [3]
- Market cap: about $144 billion at recent prices.
Why Arm stock is falling: AI sentiment shifts after Oracle’s stumble
Arm’s slide this week looks driven more by macro/sector sentiment than by a single Arm‑specific headline.
Oracle shock reignites “AI bubble” worries
On Thursday, Oracle shares dropped sharply after quarterly results disappointed and investors focused on the company’s escalating AI infrastructure spending and balance-sheet risk. The move revived broader “AI bubble” debate across tech-linked names. [4]
The “AI trade” is getting more selective
Separate from Oracle, Broadcom delivered strong revenue guidance but flagged gross-margin pressure tied to AI chip mix—another reminder that AI demand can be real while profitability dynamics remain complicated. That combination has helped price high‑multiple, AI‑adjacent stocks across seedlings and infrastructure. [5]
ARM gets pulled into the rotation
In a market wrap published today, Arm was listed among notable decliners in the tech complex after Oracle’s sell‑off, reinforcing the view that risk appetite —not Arm‑specific fundamentals—has been steering the near‑term tape. [6]
New analyst takes for Dec. 12: William Blair reiterates Outperform on Arm
A key item of fresh, dated‑today coverage: William Blair reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Arm on December 12, 2025 , arguing that multiple structural growth drivers remain intact even after the recent share weakness. [7]
The five drivers analysts keep pointing to
In the note summarized today, William Blair highlighted five core themes that continue to anchor the bull case: [8]
- Royalty expansion as the ecosystem shifts toward Armv9 and CSS
- Data center share gains against x86 incumbents
- AI lifting global compute demand (more workloads, more silicon)
- A larger licensing opportunity as Arm “moves up the stack” toward fuller solutions
- A new product opportunity viewed as potentially EPS‑accretive
Also notable: the same note frames valuation as high but not “untouchable,” citing a price-to-earnings multiple based on the firm’s calendar 2026 estimates. [9]
Bottom line: today’s analyst message is “short‑term volatility, long‑term winner”—but with an implied warning that execution matters because expectations remain elevated.
Technical analysis today: ARM breaks below the 200‑day moving average
Technical commentary published today argues Arm has slipped beneath a major support zone:
- It points to $137 as a key level (aligned with the 200‑day moving average ) and warns that a sustained break can accelerate downside momentum. [10]
- The same analysis says Arm has fallen nearly 25% since late October , framing the move as part valuation compression and part sentiment reset across high-growth tech. [11]
This doesn’t “predict” direction—but it does help explain why ARM can move fast in either direction: when high-beta growth stocks lose technical support, systematic flows and momentum strategies can amplify the move.
Valuation check: bullish forecasts vs. bearish fair-value models
Arm’s valuation debate is widening today, and the gap between price and models is part of what’s driving choppy trading.
Simply Wall St: “overvalued” narrative with a $70 fair value estimate
A valuation note dated December 12, 2025 calls Arm “overvalued” under its framework, estimating an intrinsic fair value around $70 per share , and presenting an even lower “risk‑adjusted” number after applying an additional discount. [12]
Barchart: “north of 160x forward earnings”
A separate market analysis published today characterizes Arm as trading at very high forward earnings multiples (describing it as “north of 160 times forward earnings”), and suggests that’s why the stock is particularly sensitive if investors decide AI demand normalizes in 2026. [13]
Why the multiples don’t match across sources
You’ll see different P/E figures depending on whether the analysis uses GAAP vs. non-GAAP , which fiscal year is used, and whether the denominator is a single-year estimate or a blended forward view. What is consistent across today’s commentary is that ARM remains priced as a premium growth asset . [14]
Wall Street forecasts for ARM stock: price targets and ratings (as of 12/12/2025)
Despite the pullback, the consensus direction from sell-side analysts remains positive , with targets still implying meaningful upside—although the target ranges are wide.
MarketBeat: Moderate Buy, $179.80 average target
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot (updated 12/12/2025 ) shows: [15]
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
- Average 12‑month price target:$179.80
- High / low targets:$210 / $135
- Implied upside from ~$136: about 32%
StockAnalysis: Strong Buy, $178.86 average target
StockAnalysis’ compilation shows a similar average target but a higher ceiling: [16]
- Consensus rating: Strong Buy
- Average price target:$178.86
- High / low targets:$225 / $135
- It also notes that targets were last updated Nov. 12, 2025 , meaning the database may not yet reflect any very recent target changes. [17]
Forward fundamentals in analyst models
StockAnalysis also summarizes Wall Street-style “financial forecast” expectations that embed continued growth (revenue and EPS rising year over year). [18]
Next catalyst: Arm’s next earnings date and what the Street expects
For traders and longer‑term investors alike, the next major scheduled event is Arm’s fiscal Q3 results .
- Arm’s investor events calendar lists Q3 (FYE 2026) earnings as February 4, 2026 (noted as tentatively proposed). [19]
- Major market calendars also peg the next report around Feb. 4, 2026 . [20]
- One widely used earnings calendar expects Arm to report about $0.41 EPS in the next release. [21]
What to watch into that print: guidance for royalties (Armv9/CSS mix), licensing deal timing, and any updates on Arm’s strategy around fuller solutions (and the competitive/customer implications).
Fundamentals recap: why Arm remains central to the AI compute stack
Even after this week’s downside, Arm’s underlying business story still has strong momentum—especially in data centers and AI-adjacent compute.
Arm’s most recent quarter: revenue +34% to $1.14B
In its latest reported quarter (fiscal Q2 ended Sept. 30, 2025), Arm reported: [22]
- Revenue:$1.14 billion , up 34% year over year
- Royalty revenue:$620 million , up 21% year over year , driven by higher royalty-rate technologies like Armv9 and CSS , plus increased Arm-based data-center usage
- Arm also highlighted additional CSS licensing progress (including new CSS licenses signed and growing deployment) [23]
Reuters reported adjusted EPS of 39 cents for the quarter (vs. consensus estimates cited in that report), alongside management commentary emphasizing power efficiency as a critical constraint in AI compute—an area where Arm believes it can benefit. [24]
Guidance: Q3 forecast above expectations (as of the last report)
In early November, Arm’s outlook for the next quarter was described as topping expectations, with Reuters noting a revenue forecast around $1.23 billion (midpoint context) and linking the strength to AI compute demand and CSS adoption. [25]
Strategic expansion in South Korea
Arm also continues to deepen its ecosystem footprint. Reuters reported Arm plans to set up a chip design training facility (“school”) in South Korea , aiming to train about 1,400 specialists under an agreement tied to strengthening the country’s semiconductor and AI sectors. [26]
Risk watch: regulation and licensing scrutiny in South Korea
Not all of today’s Arm narrative is bullish.
Reuters has reported that South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission has been investigating Arm’s Seoul operations related to scrutiny of licensing practices, following a complaint from Qualcomm (according to the report). [27]
For investors, the key question is not whether Arm has pricing power—many bulls believe it does—but how regulators and large customers react if Arm’s licensing model is perceived as becoming less open or more restrictive.
Ownership and flows: fresh 13F headlines on Dec. 12
Two separate MarketBeat items dated December 12, 2025 highlight institution-level positioning based on filings:
- DZ Bank reportedly reduced its stake in Arm during Q2, per its 13F-related coverage. [28]
- SEI Investments was reported to have boosted its stake modestly in Q2, also based on 13F reporting. [29]
These are backward-looking snapshots (Q2 positioning), but they feed the broader narrative that ARM remains a heavily institutionally watched name—often with large, fast-moving positions.
What to watch next for ARM stock: 7 practical checkpoints
Here are the most important catalysts and pressure points into year‑end 2025 and early 2026:
- AI capex “quality” vs. “quantity” : Spending is up across the ecosystem, but investors increasingly care about profitability timelines and margin structure. [30]
- Armv9 + CSS royalty mix : Higher royalty rates matter because they expand monetization even if unit growth moderates. [31]
- Data center adoption pace : Arm continues to position itself as a power-efficient alternative in servers, including custom silicon efforts at hyperscalers. [32]
- Licensing model evolution : “Moving up the stack” can expand revenue—but can also create customer tension if Arm is seen as competing more directly. [33]
- Regulatory overhang : Any escalation in the South Korea licensing probe could move sentiment quickly. [34]
- Technical levels : Traders are watching whether ARM can regain the ~ $137 zone (200‑day area) or continues to trend below it. [35]
- Earnings date and guidance : The market is already looking toward Feb. 4, 2026 and what the next guide implies about 2026 demand. [36]
The takeaway for Dec. 12, 2025
Arm’s stock action today reflects a familiar tug‑of‑war:
- The bull case is still intact in much of Wall Street’s view—especially around Armv9, CSS, and data-center/AI-driven compute demand. [37]
- The bear case is increasingly focused on valuation, technical deterioration, and the idea that AI spending optimism can cool quickly when mega-cap results (like Oracle’s) shake confidence. [38]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.theguardian.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.streetinsider.com, 8. www.streetinsider.com, 9. www.streetinsider.com, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. www.barchart.com, 12. simplywall.st, 13. www.barchart.com, 14. www.streetinsider.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. investors.arm.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.zacks.com, 22. newsroom.arm.com, 23. newsroom.arm.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.theguardian.com, 31. newsroom.arm.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.streetinsider.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.barchart.com, 36. investors.arm.com, 37. www.streetinsider.com, 38. www.barchart.com
