Ashtead Group plc Stock in December 2025: US Listing Shift, $1.5bn Buyback and What It Means for AHT Shares

Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT), the FTSE 100 owner of Sunbelt Rentals, heads into December 2025 trading well below its highs, in the middle of a large share buyback and preparing to move its primary listing from London to New York in early 2026. ^[1]

For investors in AHT on the London Stock Exchange and in the US tickers ASHTY and ASHTF, the stock has become a battleground between cyclical worries and a still‑strong long‑term rental story. Here’s a detailed look at the latest share price action, fundamentals, forecasts and analyst views as of 2 December 2025.

Ashtead Group share price in December 2025

Ashtead shares closed at around 4,776p on 2 December 2025 (bid 4,776p, offer 4,778p), leaving the company valued at just under £20 billion, or roughly $26.7 billion at recent exchange rates. ^[2]

Over the past 12 months, the stock has dropped about 23%, trading between roughly 3,479p and 6,448p, according to historical data. ^[3] On 1 December 2025, MarketWatch reported that Ashtead closed at £47.66, around 26% below its 52‑week high of £64.48, underperforming the broader FTSE 100 on the day. ^[4]

On US markets, Ashtead’s OTC line (ASHTF) translates into a market cap of about $26.7 billion, with a trailing price/earnings multiple around the high‑teens. ^[5]

In other words: Ashtead today trades clearly off its peaks, priced as a cyclical stock working through a slowdown rather than a high‑flying structural growth story.

Business snapshot: a US‑centric rental giant

Ashtead is one of the world’s largest equipment rental groups, operating under the Sunbelt Rentals brand in the US, Canada and the UK. Around 98% of profits are generated in North America, and the US business alone runs a network of more than 1,100 locations. ^[6]

The core thesis behind Ashtead has long been the “rental penetration” story: instead of owning construction and industrial equipment outright, customers increasingly rent, which benefits large, well‑capitalised players like Sunbelt that can run huge fleets efficiently.

Latest results: record rental revenue, slower profit growth

Full‑year 2025 (year to 30 April 2025)

Ashtead’s latest full‑year numbers show a business still growing, but with margins under pressure:

The company delivered record rental revenue, up about 4% year‑on‑year, and record adjusted EBITDA, up around 3%, according to its 2025 Annual Report. ^[7]
Reuters reported annual adjusted pre‑tax profit of roughly $2.13 billion, slightly ahead of forecasts, while a separate analysis put total revenue at about $10.8 billion and net income around $1.51 billion, down mid‑single digits year‑on‑year. ^[8]
A widely cited article noted rental revenue of about $9.98 billion, with operating profit down about 7%, highlighting weaker utilisation and lower used‑equipment sales as key drags. ^[9]

Free cash flow was a bright spot: Ashtead generated close to $1.8 billion of free cash, even after investing roughly $2.4 billion back into the business and returning $886 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. ^[10]

The group’s rental fleet stood at around $19 billion at cost as of 30 April 2025, with an average age of 49 months, up from 45 months the year before – another sign that investment has been dialled back a little after the post‑pandemic capex surge. ^[11]

Q1 2025/26 (quarter to 31 July 2025)

The first quarter of the new financial year continued the “low‑growth, high‑cash” theme:

Revenue rose 2% to $2.8 billion, with rental revenue also up 2%.
Operating profit fell 7% to $642 million, and adjusted profit before tax slipped 4% to $552 million. ^[12]
Free cash flow jumped to $514 million (from $161 million a year earlier), boosted by lower capex.
The group spent $330 million on share buybacks in the quarter, under its new repurchase programme. ^[13]

Management reaffirmed guidance for revenue and capital expenditure for the year, and even nudged free‑cash‑flow guidance higher – reinforcing the idea that Ashtead is prioritising cash returns while trading conditions are somewhat softer. ^[14]

US primary listing: moving Ashtead’s centre of gravity

One of the biggest strategic developments for Ashtead shareholders is the decision to move the company’s primary listing from London to New York.

In December 2024, Ashtead first flagged plans to seek a US primary listing and launch a large buyback alongside it. ^[15]
On 11 February 2025, the company formally announced it would ask shareholders to approve the creation of a new US‑based parent, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, which will carry the primary listing in New York while retaining a secondary listing in London. ^[16]
Reuters reports that shareholders have since backed the plan, and the company expects the US relisting to complete in Q1 2026. ^[17]

The rationale is straightforward: almost all of Ashtead’s profits are earned in the US, and management believes a New York listing will put the stock in front of a deeper pool of specialist investors and potentially command a higher long‑term valuation multiple.

For London, Ashtead’s departure is another symbolic blow in the ongoing “listings drift” toward the US, but for existing shareholders the practical impact will be more about index inclusion, trading liquidity and tax treatment once the new structure is live.

The $1.5 billion share buyback: shrinking the share count

Alongside the listing move, Ashtead is running an up to $1.5 billion share repurchase programme over roughly 18 months, announced in December 2024. ^[18]

Key points so far:

In Q1, Ashtead spent $330 million on buybacks. ^[19]
Recent regulatory filings show daily repurchases continuing into late November 2025. One announcement detailed the purchase of 93,176 shares on 28 November, leaving 418,495,724 shares in issue (excluding treasury). ^[20]
A further update reported an additional 94,500 shares bought as part of the same programme. ^[21]

For investors, the buyback matters in two ways:

It supports earnings per share and can cushion downside in weaker markets.
It signals management confidence in the company’s long‑term cash‑generation capacity, even as growth slows cyclically.

However, critics note that buybacks at the wrong point in the cycle can destroy value if profitability weakens more than expected – a theme some analysts have started to highlight.

Growth outlook: modest near‑term, structurally positive

In its June 2025 update, Ashtead guided for flat to 4% rental revenue growth for the year to April 2026, essentially matching the 4% growth achieved in 2025 but acknowledging a less supportive backdrop. ^[22]

The company and external commentators point to a mixed macro picture:

Weak US non‑residential construction – particularly in some commercial segments – is dragging on utilisation and used‑equipment pricing. ^[23]
“Mega‑projects” such as data centres, semiconductor facilities and LNG infrastructure continue to support demand in specific categories. ^[24]
High interest rates and sticky wage and repair costs are squeezing margins, even with good fleet management. ^[25]

Looking out a few years, Simply Wall St’s consensus model suggests earnings growth around 11.7% per year, revenue growth of about 5.3%, and EPS growth near 13% on average, with return on equity forecast above 21% within three years. ^[26]

That fits the long‑standing Ashtead narrative: not a hyper‑growth stock, but a high‑return, cash‑rich cyclical that can grow through the cycle by expanding its footprint and taking share as equipment ownership shifts toward rental.

Analyst price targets: upside on paper, but a split tape

Analyst opinion on Ashtead is more divided than it has been for years.

Consensus targets

Data from several platforms shows a cluster of price targets modestly above the current share price:

The Financial Times collates 14 analysts with a median 12‑month target of about 5,560p, implying around 17% upside from roughly 4,766p, with a range of about 4,608p to 6,762p. ^[27]
MarketBeat reports a smaller group of analysts with an average target around 5,920p and a range from 4,600p to 7,300p, suggesting roughly 24% upside from current levels. ^[28]
TradingView’s forecast page points to a consensus around 5,836p, with a wide band between about 4,533p and 8,042p. ^[29]

In short, the median Wall Street and City view is “moderate upside, but not a screaming bargain” – with plenty of uncertainty reflected in the spread of targets.

Bulls: cash, ROE and US re‑rating

On the positive side:

Bernstein reiterated an “Outperform” rating in April 2025 with a £61.50 target price, highlighting Ashtead’s roughly 7.8% forward free‑cash‑flow yield, a much higher figure than many peers in the machinery and rental space, and expecting a valuation re‑rating as the US listing approaches. ^[30]
Simply Wall St’s valuation work pegs intrinsic value around £62.98 per share, versus trading levels near £46–48, arguing that the stock still looks significantly undervalued given consensus growth expectations. ^[31]
Fundamental analysis from the same source emphasises return on equity around 19%, well above industry averages, and a three‑year median payout ratio of about 27%, indicating that Ashtead retains most of its earnings for reinvestment while still paying a growing dividend. ^[32]

Ashtead has also maintained a 20‑year dividend record, another marker of consistent shareholder returns, even through downturns. ^[33]

Bears: RBC’s underperform and cyclical caution

On the other side of the ledger, RBC Capital Markets downgraded Ashtead to “Underperform” in September 2025, cutting its price target to 4,600p, about 13% below the then share price of 5,362p. ^[34]

RBC’s concerns include: ^[35]

Depreciation rising faster than rental revenue for several years, with depreciation at roughly 23% of rental revenue in FY 2025.
Persistent cost pressures – skilled wages, repair and logistics – limiting scope for margin expansion.
Industry overcapacity in multi‑application equipment, keeping rental rates under pressure, alongside falling auction values for key categories like forklifts and telehandlers.
Competition risk, particularly if US rival EquipmentShare pursues a large IPO, potentially crowding Ashtead in the eyes of US equity investors.
Listing transition risk: RBC notes that another UK‑to‑US migrant, Ferguson, underperformed ahead of its own US listing, and fears Ashtead might see similar volatility.

In other words, while long‑term structural drivers remain appealing, some analysts see a tougher near‑term risk/reward balance as the cycle matures and the company navigates a major listing shift.

Fundamental quality: is the market too pessimistic?

Recent analysis from Simply Wall St framed Ashtead as a high‑quality business with a temporarily out‑of‑favour share price:

Over the last five years, Ashtead’s net income has grown around 13% annually, versus about 8% for its industry, driven in part by high returns on equity and reinvestment. ^[36]
Return on equity around 19% means the company generates roughly 19 cents of profit for every dollar of shareholder equity – a strong figure for a capital‑intensive industrial business. ^[37]
With a payout ratio in the high‑20% range, the company retains most of its earnings to fund fleet growth, acquisitions and buybacks. ^[38]

At the same time, share‑price data shows that AHT is down about 15% over the past three months, even as fundamentals have held up reasonably well – leading some commentators to suggest the market may be over‑discounting cyclical risk. ^[39]

Whether that pessimism is justified depends on how you weigh the macro risks versus Ashtead’s proven ability to compound through cycles.

Key risks for Ashtead Group shareholders

Based on company disclosures and recent analyst commentary, the main risks to watch include: ^[40]

US non‑residential construction slowdown: Prolonged weakness could cap rental growth and keep fleet utilisation below optimal levels.
Margin squeeze: Rising wages, repair costs and logistics, plus a softer market for used equipment, could depress operating margins further.
Capital intensity and depreciation: Large, ageing fleets require ongoing investment; if depreciation keeps outpacing rental revenue, returns could drift lower.
Competitive dynamics: Existing peers and potential new public competitors in the US may intensify price competition, especially if equity markets reward growth over discipline.
Execution risk on the US listing: The transition to a New York primary listing could generate technical selling, index rebalancing and short‑term volatility, even if the long‑term logic holds.
Cyclical exposure to US interest rates and housing‑related indicators: Historically, Ashtead’s share price has been correlated with the US homebuilder indices and existing home prices.

Upcoming catalysts: Q2 results and the road to New York

Investors won’t have to wait long for more hard data.

Ashtead’s Q2 results are scheduled for 9 December 2025, according to the company’s financial calendar, and US‑listed instruments also flag that date as the next earnings announcement. ^[41]

Key things the market is likely to focus on:

Whether rental revenue growth remains within the flat to 4% guidance band. ^[42]
Any change to capex and free‑cash‑flow guidance, given management’s growing emphasis on cash returns. ^[43]
Updates on the share buyback pace and remaining capacity under the $1.5 billion programme. ^[44]
Further detail on the US listing timetable, regulatory filings and expected structure of the new parent, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings. ^[45]

Beyond December, the key medium‑term catalyst is the completion of the New York listing in early 2026 and how US investors choose to value a large, cyclical but high‑return rental franchise.

Bottom line: a high‑quality cyclical in transition

As of 2 December 2025, Ashtead Group sits at an intriguing junction:

The business remains fundamentally strong, with high returns on equity, solid free cash flow and a long track record of dividend growth. ^[46]
The stock trades significantly below its highs and at what several models suggest is a discount to intrinsic value – though not all analysts agree. ^[47]
The newsflow in late 2025 is dominated by three themes: a slowing but still‑growing rental market, a large and ongoing buyback, and the structural shift of Ashtead’s centre of gravity from London to New York. ^[48]

For long‑term investors, Ashtead continues to look like a classic “quality cyclical”: exposed to economic swings, but with structural drivers and capital discipline that can reward patience over a full cycle. For shorter‑term traders, the combination of macro uncertainty, analyst disagreement and the looming US listing virtually guarantees more volatility as 2025 turns into 2026.

References

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