Asia Stock Markets Roundup: September 23–24, 2025
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged to an all-time high of 45,630 points, closing at a record on Sept 24 [1], driven by strength in AI and chip-related shares.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunged 0.7% on Tuesday amid typhoon fears [2], then rebounded 1.37% by Wednesday’s close, led by a 2.5% jump in tech stocks [3] as storm worries eased and tech optimism returned.
- Mainland China saw the Shanghai Composite rise 0.83% to 3,853.64 on Wednesday [4] and the high-tech Shenzhen Component Index soar 1.8% [5], buoyed by a rally in semiconductor and growth shares.
- South Korea’s KOSPI hit a fresh record high around 3,494 on Tuesday, but slipped back on Wednesday as U.S. Fed caution and a delay in domestic reforms spurred profit-taking [6] [7]. Foreign investors pulled funds, and the won weakened to ~₩1,398/$ amid the retreat [8].
- India’s Sensex and Nifty were flat to slightly lower on Tuesday [9], then fell ~0.5% on Wednesday – a fourth straight drop [10] – as IT stocks sold off on U.S. visa fee concerns and foreign funds outflowed [11].
- Southeast Asia: Singapore’s STI was little changed (-0.2%) around 4,295 [12], while Indonesia’s JCI notched record highs above 8,130 points [13], extending a rally in local shares.
Major Index Performances Across Asia
Japan (Nikkei 225 & Topix): Japan’s stock market has been a standout performer. The Nikkei 225 index, propelled by robotics and semiconductor names, broke above its 1980s bubble peak to set a new all-time closing high of 45,630.31on Sept 24 [14]. This marked a recovery from early-session losses that day, as investors piled into AI and data-center stocks like SoftBank and IHI, which led the gains [15]. The broader Topix index also ticked up +0.2% [16]. Analysts noted that recent momentum in Tokyo has been fueled by outsized optimism around tech investments and hopes of corporate reforms [17]. Even with such exuberance, economic undercurrents are mixed: fresh data showed Japan’s manufacturing activity remained in contraction (September PMI 48.4), underscoring a “challenging situation” as the Bank of Japan balances inflation and growth [18]. Still, the mood in Tokyo is bullish, with investors “front and center” on Japan after this historic rally [19].
Hong Kong & China: It was a tale of two turbulent days. On Tuesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped to a near two-week low 26,159 (–0.7%) [20] as the city braced for Super Typhoon Ragasa. Trading volumes thinned and volatility spiked amid worries the midweek storm could disrupt business [21]. By Wednesday, however, sentiment flipped: Hong Kong’s market rebounded 1.37% to about 26,519 [22] after the typhoon’s impact appeared manageable. Tech shares led the comeback, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.5% [23] – helped by a global chip rally and a major AI product launch from Alibaba that sent its stock soaring [24] [25]. In mainland China, indices also jumped mid-week. The benchmark Shanghai Composite edged up +0.83% to 3,853.64 on Wednesday [26], and the blue-chip CSI 300 climbed ~1.0% [27]. Gains were powered by a surge in technology names: the STAR Market’s tech index rocketed almost 3.5%, and semiconductor stocks spiked nearly 4.7% [28]on hopes of domestic stimulus and easing U.S.–China tensions. The Shenzhen market – heavy with growth companies – outperformed with a 1.8% rally [29]. Chinese traders have been torn between stimulus hopes and sluggish growth signals [30], but this week’s rebound suggests Beijing’s recent regulatory tweaks and hints of policy easing are filtering through to lift sentiment [31]. Helping the mood, officials signaled fresh trade discussions with the U.S., lending “support” to the market on Wednesday [32].
South Korea (KOSPI): South Korea’s KOSPI stock index has seesawed around historic highs. On Sept 23, the KOSPI rallied to a record above 3,490 as heavyweight chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix rode a wave of global AI demand [33] [34]. That marked roughly the fifth consecutive session of all-time highs [35], backed by optimism over market reforms and ample global liquidity [36]. Come Wednesday, though, Korean stocks hit a speed bump. The KOSPI “slipped from record highs” on Sept 24 [37], dipping about 0.9% (to the mid-3,400s) as traders reacted to the U.S. Fed’s stern tone and a snag in Seoul’s reform agenda. Fed Chair Powell’s warning about “fairly highly valued” equities globally soured risk appetite and “sparked a worldwide risk-off mood” that hit Seoul just after its record run [38]. Locally, news that lawmakers might delay key changes to Korea’s Commercial Act dented sentiment, dragging down financial stocks by 1.4% and brokers by over 3% [39]. Market breadth turned weak – only 1 in 5 stocks rose – as foreign investors withdrew ₩180 million ( ~$180M) in a day [40]. The Korean won also eased to around ₩1,397.5 per USD amid the equity pullback [41]. Despite this stumble, analysts note the KOSPI’s broader uptrend remains intact thanks to hopes for structural reforms and earlier inflows; the question is whether Fed jitters and domestic politics will “cloud the narrative”going forward [42].
India (Sensex & Nifty): Indian equities were subdued, as investor attention shifted to global cues and domestic policy developments. On Sept 23 (Tuesday), the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 seesawed and ultimately closed nearly flat (Sensex down just 0.08% [43]). Banking and metal shares provided support while IT lagged. By Sept 24, the mood turned more clearly negative: the Sensex fell 386 points (-0.47%) to 81,716 and the Nifty lost 0.45% to 25,057, marking their fourth straight daily decline [44]. IT stocks bore the brunt, with the tech index down 0.7% on the day and now over 4% lower since the U.S. hiked H-1B visa fees this week [45]. Investors fear higher visa costs and new U.S. work visa rules could squeeze Indian software exporters’ margins [46]. Indeed, foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers – offloading ₹35.5 billion (~$400 million) of Indian shares on Tuesday alone [47] – and persistent FPI outflows have “overshadowed” the festive-season demand optimism on Dalal Street [48]. Other sectors also slipped mid-week: autos gave up 1.2% (Tata Motors sank 2.7% on an extended plant shutdown) [49], and financials dipped ~0.6% [50]. Despite the recent pullback, there are glimmers of optimism: inflation is softening and the central bank has begun cutting rates, which prompted HSBC this week to upgrade Indian equities to “overweight,” seeing valuations now attractive and predicting the Sensex could hit 94,000 by end-2026 (~13% upside) [51]. This suggests some institutional investors view the current dip as a buying opportunity, provided earnings and reforms stay on track.
Southeast Asia (Singapore & Indonesia): Major ASEAN markets saw mixed fortunes. Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) was muted, roughly holding the 4,300 level. It slipped about -0.17% to ~4,295 by Sept 24 [52], as cautious regional sentiment and weaker bank stocks offset gains in REITs. Traders in Singapore remain in wait-and-see mode, keeping watch on China’s economic data and global oil prices [53]. In Indonesia, by contrast, stocks extended a remarkable rally. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose for a seventh straight session and hit fresh record highs, closing around 8,139 on Sept 24 [54] (+0.17% day-on-day). The JCI has climbed over 4% year-to-date [55], buoyed by domestic economic resilience and commodity-driven gains – Indonesia is benefiting from firm prices for palm oil and nickel. Local analysts noted that the index “is predicted to break an all-time high record again” midweek amid strong investor appetite [56]. Indeed, Indonesian stocks were modestly higher across sectors, with particular strength in telecom and consumer names according to recent reports [57]. Elsewhere in the region, Malaysia’s KLCI and Thailand’s SET saw only minor moves (both largely flat), reflecting the balancing act between global uncertainties and local earnings. Overall, Southeast Asian markets have been relatively steady, with Indonesia’s outperformance standing out as foreign funds rotate into one of the region’s growth bright spots.
Drivers Behind Market Moves
Central Bank Signals: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent actions and commentary cast a long shadow over Asia’s markets this week. The Fed delivered its first rate cut of the year in September (a quarter-point trim) and traders are nearly fully pricing another cut in October [58] [59]. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a nuanced tone in remarks on Sept 23, offering “little clarity” on the pace of easing ahead [60]. Powell pointedly noted that equity valuations seem “fairly highly valued,” and emphasized the challenge of balancing lingering inflation against a cooling labor market [61]. This lack of dovish assurance disappointed some investors and contributed to a sell-off on Wall Street that rippled into Asia on Wednesday [62]. Higher-for-longer U.S. rate fears lifted the U.S. dollar and put pressure on risk assets worldwide [63]. Nevertheless, the overall expectation in markets is still that the Fed will be easing through year-end. “All markets…are taking comfort from the expectation that the Fed will be easing for the remainder of this year and again next year,” observed Daiwa Capital economist Chris Scicluna [64]. This tug-of-war – between hopes for Fed rate cuts and the Fed’s cautious messaging – has been a key driver of day-to-day volatility in Asian equities.
Central banks in Asia were mostly in a holding pattern during this period. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s ultra-easy stance remains in focus, especially as the yen nears the ¥150 mark (sparking intervention watch). The BOJ has hinted it may tweak its yield-curve control if markets overshoot, but no changes came during these sessions. Meanwhile, China’s PBOC has been subtly supportive – injecting liquidity and easing some lending rules – though it held benchmark loan rates steady in September. Hints of further stimulus (such as relaxed property curbs and calls for banks to boost lending) helped improve sentiment in Chinese markets [65]. Traders are also looking ahead to China’s upcoming PMI and GDP readings to gauge if more policy support is likely. In India, the RBI is on an extended pause after earlier rate hikes, but falling inflation has fanned speculation of a possible cut in coming months, contributing to a generally constructive domestic outlook (despite short-term FPI outflows).
Macroeconomic Data: Fresh economic data released around Sept 23–24 played a role in shaping market moves. In the U.S., business activity surveys (PMIs) for September came in softer than prior months [66], hinting at slowing growth – which initially cheered equity bulls hoping for Fed cuts, until Powell’s comments tempered those hopes. In Europe, surprisingly firm services PMIs lifted European stocks early in the week [67], indirectly supporting Asia on Tuesday. Inflation readings remain critical: Japan’s core inflation has been trending just above target, and investors are watching if price pressures ease enough for the BOJ to stay dovish. In Australia, a decline in job vacancies and hints of slower inflation aided the case for the RBA to remain on hold, helping Australian shares rise on Fed dovish hopes [68] [69]. Manufacturing PMI data in Japan (48.4) and Taiwan (slipping further below 50) underscored that industrial sectors are still cooling [70]. This mix of data – some pointing to slowdown (favorable for policy easing), others showing resilience – kept markets oscillating as investors parsed each new release for clues.
Geopolitics and Local Developments: Geopolitical events added another layer of complexity. In Hong Kong, Typhoon Ragasa dominated local news; authorities curtailed flights and put the city on alert, which dampened trading on Tuesday [71]. Once it became clear by Wednesday that the storm’s disruption would be temporary, dip-buyers stepped in, especially into beaten-down property and financial stocks [72]. U.S.–China trade relations also nudged markets: mid-week, traders took note of “fresh signs of easing trade tensions” between Washington and Beijing [73]. This followed reports that the U.S. is planning to finalize new trade agreements with Southeast Asian nations in coming months [74], a sign of a more constructive engagement in the region. The improved tone helped Chinese and Hong Kong indexes rally, as investors wagered on better export and investment outlook. On the other hand, geopolitical risks – including ongoing war tensions in Europe and the Middle East – lurked in the background as a downside risk (IC Markets noted that “escalating geopolitical risks” weighed on sentiment on Wednesday) [75]. For example, oil prices jumped over 2% this week to one-year highs on supply concerns [76], which can be a double-edged sword for Asia: beneficial for oil exporters like Malaysia, but a headwind for importers like India and Japan where high fuel costs stoke inflation.
Domestic political news also played a role. In South Korea, as mentioned, a delay in passing market-friendly reforms (aimed at improving corporate governance) hurt financial shares and dented the record-setting rally [77]. In India, the government’s continued push on fiscal reforms and a surprise parliamentary session kept investors on their toes, though no market-moving policy was announced during these two days. Notably, HSBC’s upgrade of India’s equity market outlook mid-week – citing pro-growth reforms, tax cuts, and resilient consumption – was a vote of confidence that helped limit the downside in Mumbai [78]. Overall, markets across Asia navigated a complex web of influences: they drew strength from tech innovation and local positive stories, while contending with global central bank signals and occasional geopolitical curveballs.
Corporate Earnings and News: Corporate developments provided additional catalysts on a micro level. The global AI boom continued to make waves – for instance, Nvidia’s announcement of up to $100 billion investment in AI (OpenAI) lifted U.S. tech to records, which then fed into Asian tech stocks early in the week [79]. Regionally, Alibaba’s unveiling of its new AI model “Qwen-3 Max” grabbed headlines on Wednesday; Alibaba’s stock jumped nearly 8% in U.S. pre-market trading [80] and its Hong Kong listing also leapt, boosting the Hang Seng. This exemplifies how Asia’s markets are tightly linked into the global technology cycle. Other notable corporate news: In Australia, retailer Myer saw shares plunge 28% after a weak profit report, while biotech firm Telix surged 8% on regulatory approval for a new therapy [81] – highlighting that earnings surprises are still moving individual stocks even as macro factors dominate the broader indices. In India, drone-maker ideaForge rose 5% after inking a U.S. joint venture [82], showing investor appetite for high-tech manufacturing stories. And in Japan, there is ongoing buzz that corporate governance improvements (share buybacks, unwinding of cross-shareholdings, etc.) are attracting foreign investors – a theme often cited behind the Nikkei’s powerful rally. Earnings season in Asia is largely between quarters at the moment, but investors are positioning ahead of Q3 results (due in October) and any profit warnings or upbeat guidance in specific sectors (like electronics or autos) are being closely watched.
In sum, macroeconomic cues (especially Fed policy) and sector-specific trends (especially tech) were the primary drivers of Asian market performance over Sept 23–24. Markets reacted swiftly to each hint of central bank policy shifts and each piece of news, resulting in a rollercoaster of alternating declines and rallies across the region.
Currency and Bond Market Highlights
Asia’s currency and bond markets reflected the week’s risk sentiment and interest rate expectations:
- Japanese Yen (¥) – The yen hovered near its weakest level in a year, trading around 147.8–148.3 per US dollar [83]. As U.S. yields rose and the dollar strengthened broadly mid-week [84], the yen lost ground – touching ¥148.27 on Sept 24 [85]. This puts the yen uncomfortably close to the ¥150 level that last year prompted government intervention. Traders are on high alert for any signs Tokyo might step in to support the yen if it breaches that psychological line. Thus far, officials have limited themselves to verbal warnings, and the yen’s weakness has actually bolstered the earnings outlook for Japan’s exporters, adding fuel to the Nikkei’s rally. Still, a very weak yen is a double-edged sword, as it raises import costs – a dynamic the BOJ will monitor if oil prices continue climbing.
- Chinese Yuan (CNY) – The offshore yuan held relatively steady around 7.11 per dollar [86]. Beijing has been managing the yuan tightly via its daily reference rate and stepped-up dollar selling by state banks. This week, support measures (like a tighter fix bias) kept the yuan range-bound, even as the dollar gained elsewhere. Currency stability has been part of Chinese policymakers’ toolkit to restore market confidence. The yuan’s steadiness, despite interest rate differentials with the U.S., suggests investors expect the PBOC to prevent excessive depreciation. Any signs of U.S.–China trade détente also help the yuan.
- Indian Rupee (₹) – The rupee traded near all-time lows around the ₹83–84 per dollar zone (lacking a dramatic move these two days). Persistent foreign outflows from equities put mild pressure on the rupee. However, the RBI’s presence in the FX market (likely selling dollars from reserves) has curbed volatility. With India’s inflation easing and oil prices inching up, the rupee’s trajectory will depend on how those forces balance. Over the week, the rupee was relatively stable, a small silver lining for foreign investors in an otherwise weak stock market stretch.
- Korean Won (₩) – The won depreciated slightly to about ₩1,397.5 per USD by Wednesday [87], losing roughly 0.3% over two days. It tends to weaken when global investors retreat from emerging markets, as seen with the KOSPI’s dip. Additionally, higher U.S. yields widen the U.S.–Korea rate gap, pressuring the won. Bank of Korea officials have indicated readiness to stabilize the currency if needed, but for now the moves have been orderly. South Korea’s 10-year bond yield ticked up with global yields, reflecting the cautious mood.
- Other Currencies: The Australian dollar (A$) initially strengthened early in the week on rising risk appetite and higher gold prices (Australia being a major gold producer), but later flattened out as equities wavered [88]. The Euro and British pound fell against the dollar after Powell’s remarks, indirectly influencing Asia’s FX by boosting the dollar index. In Southeast Asia, most currencies like the Singapore dollar and Indonesian rupiahsaw limited moves, thanks in part to relatively hawkish stances by their central banks providing carry support. Notably, Indonesia’s rupiah held firm even as the JCI hit records, underpinned by strong trade surpluses from commodity exports.
- Bond Yields: U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly mid-week (10-year ~4.10%, down from recent highs) as investors rotated into safe-haven bonds after the Fed’s mixed signals [89]. This helped cap rises in Asian bond yields. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield hovered around 0.75%, near multi-year highs, as traders speculate the BOJ could let long-term rates drift up. The BOJ intervened in bond markets earlier in the month to slow the rise in yields, and it succeeded in keeping Japanese yields stable during these sessions. India’s 10-year bond yield stayed around 7.1%, only marginally higher on the week – RBI’s rate pause and inclusion of Indian bonds in a global index (announced earlier in Sept) have supported Indian bonds, even as equity outflows continued. Australia’s 10-year yield was about 4.29% after a small uptick [90], as RBA’s outlook of stable rates kept bond traders calm. In emerging ASEAN markets like Indonesia, bond yields were little changed; Indonesia’s 10-year yield remained near 6.5%, with strong demand from domestic institutions balancing out any foreign selling. Credit markets in Asia also remained stable – no signs of stress, and credit spreads were largely unchanged, reflecting that investors still view the environment as accommodative overall.
- Commodities Safe Havens: Safe-haven assets and commodities provided additional context. Gold prices inched toward record territory (around $1,950/oz in spot terms), even hitting an all-time high in some currencies, as investors sought an inflation hedge [91]. By mid-week, gold was flat, consolidating after a climb to record levels [92]. Oil prices jumped significantly – Brent crude traded above $67.5, up over 2% this week [93] [94]. This oil surge, driven by supply cuts and geopolitical tensions, fed into bond expectations (higher oil can mean higher inflation and yields) and also bolstered energy stocks, particularly in Australia and Malaysia. Cryptocurrencies even saw a mention: Bitcoin held around $112K (having surged in prior months after multiple ETF approvals), showing little net change during these days [95]. Overall, currency and bond movements in Asia indicate a market bracing for potential policy shifts – relatively stable for now, but quick to adjust as signals emerge from the Fed or local central banks.
Analyst Commentary and Outlook
Market experts are advising caution even amid the recent equity gains, pointing to a mix of encouraging trends and persistent risks:
Several analysts remain constructively optimistic on Asian markets, but with caveats. “The rally in artificial intelligence stocks is still providing some pep,” noted Devesh Kumar of Invezz, even as investors remain mindful of looming headwinds from China’s internal struggles and a “monsoon” of regulatory news [96] [97]. In other words, tech innovation (AI, chips, etc.) continues to be a major upside driver in markets like Japan, South Korea, and now China, but regulatory and economic uncertainties – especially in China’s property sector – could rain on the parade at any time.
On the bullish side, global investment banks have started turning more positive on Asia. HSBC’s strategists, for instance, just upgraded India to overweight, arguing that valuations have cooled to attractive levels relative to peers and that India’s macro fundamentals (e.g. easing inflation, pro-growth policies) provide a “favorable backdrop for equities.”They set a Sensex target of 94,000 for end-2026 [98], implying steady double-digit returns ahead. Similarly, in Japan, foreign investors have been net buyers this year – a trend expected to continue as long as corporate earnings and shareholder returns improve. Some analysts say Japan’s market is in a sweet spot of solid earnings and still-easy monetary policy, a combination that could keep the Nikkei elevated. “Investors should be ‘responsibly bullish’,” quipped Goldman Sachs’ Tony Pasquariello after Wall Street’s recent run-up [99] – implying that while there’s room for further gains, one should stay vigilant for signs of excess. That advice resonates in Asia too, where markets like India and Japan have seen strong rallies: participants are optimistic but keeping an eye on any red flags.
At the same time, voices of caution have grown louder. Fed Chair Powell’s remarks served as a reminder that valuations are no longer cheap. Veteran investors like Ray Dalio even suggested this week that stocks are a “zero-sum game” at current prices and said he prefers inflation-linked bonds for safer returns [100] [101]. While not everyone is that bearish, many fund managers acknowledge that a lot of good news (rate cuts, AI boom, China stimulus) is already priced in. The risk is that if any expected good news fails to materialize, markets could correct. For example, if the Fed pauses on cutting rates due to sticky inflation, or if China’s economic recovery disappoints after Golden Week, Asia’s equities might see renewed pressure.
Key trends to watch in coming days:
- Federal Reserve trajectory: Markets will closely monitor upcoming Fed speeches and U.S. data (like the core PCE inflation reading due Friday) to gauge if an October rate cut is still on track [102]. Any hawkish surprise could strengthen the dollar and weigh on Asian assets, while confirmation of easing could extend the rally in stocks and currencies.
- China’s economic indicators: China is heading into its early October Golden Week holiday, after which PMI data for September will be released. Investors will be watching if recent policy support (like lower mortgage rates and infrastructure spending) translates into improved factory output or consumer spending. A positive surprise in China’s numbers could “lift all boats” in Asia, especially commodity-sensitive markets. Conversely, any weakness may revive global growth concerns.
- Geopolitical and policy developments: U.S.–China relations remain a wildcard – any progress (or setback) in trade talks can move markets quickly. Additionally, Japan’s government budget and potential tax breaks, India’s election-season fiscal spending, or South Korea’s reform bills are local developments that could influence investor sentiment. The handling of inflation and fuel prices (e.g., any government intervention or subsidy adjustments) in emerging Asia will also be important as oil trades high.
- Earnings season and sector rotation: As Q3 corporate results start in a few weeks, analysts expect a divergence: technology and consumer companies are projected to post robust growth (thanks to AI demand and post-pandemic spending), whereas exports manufacturers and some banks might show softer numbers. Any earnings misses in the tech sector could test the resilience of the current rally. Conversely, strong guidance from bellwethers (like Samsung, TSMC, or Reliance Industries) would reinforce confidence. Investors are also eyeing whether the recent surge in energy prices boosts oil & gas stocks further and whether defensive plays (like utilities or telecoms) come back in favor if volatility rises.
In the immediate term, market sentiment in Asia appears cautiously upbeat. Despite Fed jitters, there’s a prevailing view that the interest-rate cycle is turning downward in the U.S. and many Asian economies, which provides a supportive backdrop for equities [103]. Liquidity conditions are still favorable – evident in the hefty trading turnover in markets like Hong Kong (nearly HK$295 billion on Tuesday) [104] and the continued foreign buying of certain Asian bonds.
However, volatility may stay elevated. As Saxo Bank’s strategy team noted, political uncertainty (like the U.S. government shutdown risk brewing in Washington) and Powell’s tone have nudged up volatility indices, though “day-to-day swings may stay modest” absent a major shock [105] [106]. Investors would do well to expect swings and remain selective. The consensus among many strategists is to favor sectors with structural tailwinds – such as technology, green energy, and domestic consumption – while being wary of interest rate-sensitive areas like highly leveraged real estate or utilities.
Bottom Line: Asia’s stock markets delivered a dynamic two-day roundup of highs and lows – from Tokyo’s record peak to Hong Kong’s stormy dip and rebound – reflecting the push-pull of tech-driven optimism against macroeconomic caution. The coming days will test whether this rally has legs: Will central banks indeed deliver the anticipated rate relief? Will China’s fledgling recovery gain traction? For now, the region’s investors are riding a wave of optimism but with one finger always on the pulse of policy and global events. As one analyst summed up the climate, “the reflation play is on, provided external shocks don’t interrupt the rhythm” [107]. All eyes will be on those potential shocks – and opportunities – in the days ahead.
Sources: Asian market reports and data from IC Markets [108] [109], Reuters [110] [111], Economic Times (India) [112] [113], Xinhua/China.org.cn [114], Invezz/Cryptorank [115] [116], and other financial media as cited.
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