Amsterdam, Jan 15, 2026, 12:31 CET — Regular session
ASML (ASML.AS) shares soared to a fresh peak on Thursday, lifting the chip-equipment giant’s market cap past the $500 billion mark. This followed TSMC’s decision to boost its 2026 capital expenditure, aiming to meet the rising demand for AI-related chips. By 0952 GMT, ASML was up 4.3%, marking a 23% gain for January so far. “The new plan is great for equipment vendors in 2026, it will lead to consensus estimates upgrades across the board,” said Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg. 1
The spending call matters because chip investors keep zeroing in on one question: are customers still ramping up, or hitting the brakes? When a foundry like TSMC signals bigger budgets, it can shift the whole supply chain’s order outlook in a heartbeat.
ASML plays a key role in that process. Microchips are assembled layer by layer on silicon wafers, with lithography machines imprinting the patterns on each one — a task that grows tougher and costlier as designs become smaller. 2
TSMC (2330.TW) reported fourth-quarter revenue of NT$1,046.09 billion and net income of NT$505.74 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3%. The company forecasted first-quarter revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion. It also announced a 2026 capital budget ranging from $52 billion to $56 billion—a figure covering spending on plants and equipment. “Our business in the fourth quarter was supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies,” said CFO Wendell Huang. 3
According to Reuters, the profit figure surpassed market forecasts and hit a record high, based on an LSEG SmartEstimate — a consensus that gives more weight to analysts with proven accuracy. 4
In the U.S., other chip tool makers also got a boost. Applied Materials jumped 6.2% in premarket trading, Lam Research climbed 5.4%, and KLA added 5%. The gains followed TSMC’s earnings and spending forecast, sparking a wider semiconductor rally, Reuters reported. 5
But the bullish capex story has its flip side. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei sounded a note of caution over a potential AI spending bubble, admitting: “I’m also very nervous about it, you bet,” while emphasizing, “AI is real… it’s starting to grow into our daily life.” 6
For ASML, the key issue right now is if the order pipeline lives up to the buzz. Investors are on edge for signs that chipmakers might delay projects, push back delivery dates, or tap inventories more aggressively following a recent surge in buildout.
ASML is set to release its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on Jan. 28. Investors are focused on order intake figures and the company’s outlook for 2026. 7
