Amsterdam, Jan 18, 2026, 16:52 CET — Market closed.
- Morgan Stanley raised its target for ASML, citing a robust order pipeline extending through 2027.
- The shares ended Friday’s session higher in Amsterdam.
- Traders kicked off the week focusing on trade headlines and order intake numbers from late January.
ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS) kicks off the week after Morgan Stanley raised its price target to €1,400, highlighting a bull case as high as €2,000 for the Dutch chip equipment giant. The stock closed Friday at €1,167.20 in Amsterdam, up 1.55%. Analyst Lee Simpson expects “order intake over the next 2-3 quarters to confirm this strength,” pointing to “higher 2027 foundry and memory capex as well as better than feared China demand.” 1
Why it matters now: ASML’s order intake—the total value of new machine orders—is closely watched as a barometer for chip factory spending, given its equipment is used at the start of the production process. The company plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year results on Wednesday, Jan. 28, with a press release scheduled for 07:00 CET, followed by a press conference and investor call, ASML said. 2
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co announced plans this week to ramp up capital expenditure to between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of around $46 billion. Analysts noted this could boost spending on chipmaking equipment by as much as 21%. 3
Chip stocks drew buying interest ahead of the weekend. The U.S. semiconductor index rose 1.2% on Friday, while the major Wall Street indexes finished mostly unchanged. U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. 4
Trade tensions flared again Sunday as President Donald Trump threatened a fresh 10% tariff starting Feb. 1 on imports from eight European countries, the Netherlands among them. He warned that if no agreement is struck, that rate could jump to 25% come June 1. 5
Another tariff thread runs through the sector. The U.S. has slapped a 25% tariff on certain advanced computing chips. Officials have hinted at a possible second phase that might expand the scope, despite the White House insisting the initial steps are narrowly targeted. 6
ASML’s short-term outlook hinges on a few key figures: order intake, shipment schedules, and the pace at which clients adopt its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools — the machines that use ultra-short-wavelength light to carve the tiniest details into cutting-edge chips.
The share price sets a high bar. Any weaker bookings, factory ramp delays, or cautious comments on 2026 demand could quickly weigh on the stock. Investors are banking on the belief that the next phase of chip spending is already unfolding.
Traders eye Monday’s European open closely for signs of response to the newest tariff news and to see if chip stocks can hold their ground after last week’s rally. Much of the upside bet rests on customers continuing to buy new systems as quickly as bulls expect.
The next key date is Jan. 28, when ASML releases its report. Management is set to detail bookings, China exposure, and their outlook on demand through 2026.
