Amsterdam, Jan 19, 2026, 00:11 CET — The market has closed.
- Shares of ASML in Amsterdam closed 1.6% higher, at 1,167.20 euros.
- Morgan Stanley raised its ASML price target 40%, now at €1,400, maintaining an Overweight rating.
- ASML will release its quarterly and full-year results on Jan. 28.
ASML Holding NV starts the week with an upgraded price target, as Morgan Stanley raised its estimate to €1,400 and maintained its stance on the Dutch chip-equipment firm as a top pick.
This call is crucial since ASML occupies a key bottleneck in the chip supply chain. When major chipmakers start opening their wallets, ASML’s bookings and order chatter usually lead the way. Traders are now scrambling to gauge the shape of the upcoming spending cycle.
Morgan Stanley’s Lee Simpson bumped his price target to €1,400 from €1,000 and kept an Overweight rating, signaling confidence the stock will outperform. He pointed to “higher 2027 foundry and memory capex” along with “better than feared China demand.” Simpson projects fiscal 2027 sales around €46.8 billion and earnings per share near €45.7. He also highlighted potential for 80 EUV tools in 2027. EUV, or extreme ultraviolet, refers to the precise lithography equipment essential for cutting-edge chip production. 1
ASML closed Friday in Amsterdam at 1,167.20 euros, gaining 17.80 euros, after fluctuating between 1,150 and 1,183.80 euros during the session. U.S. trading for the stock will be halted Monday as U.S. markets observe Martin Luther King Jr. Day. 2
Investors are less focused on the target number itself and more on whether orders begin to stack up behind it. The key metric is order intake — the value of new orders secured — which can shift a 2027 projection into something reflected in 2026 guidance.
There’s a catch. The bullish outlook depends on chipmakers sticking to their factory spending plans and demand from China remaining strong. Any slowdown in the flow of shippable tools or tighter restrictions on sales could quickly cause trouble.
Export controls continue to be a sticking point. CEO Christophe Fouquet warned that in 2024, U.S. pressure to tighten restrictions on exports to China is likely to persist, no matter who wins the U.S. election. 3
ASML is gearing up to reset expectations soon. The company plans to release its Q4 and full-year results on Wednesday, Jan. 28. The press release drops at 07:00 CET, with a press conference scheduled for 11:00 CET, followed by an investor call at 15:00 CET featuring CEO Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen. 4
Investors are also tuned in for any news on capital returns. ASML revealed alongside its third-quarter 2025 results that it plans to roll out a new share buyback program in January 2026. 5
Looking ahead, the next key events are Monday’s reopening in Amsterdam, followed by the Jan. 28 earnings report. Traders will be watching closely for bookings, updated guidance, and any evidence that the 2027 spending projections are shifting from analyst forecasts to real orders.
