Amsterdam, Jan 17, 2026, 23:25 CET — Market closed.
- ASML shares closed Friday in Amsterdam at €1,167.20, up 1.6%.
- Morgan Stanley outlined a bull-case scenario indicating significant upside potential for the chip-equipment maker.
- Attention shifts to order intake data and ASML’s earnings and guidance due January 28.
Morgan Stanley laid out a bull case for ASML Holding NV that could push the stock up by as much as 70% in its most optimistic forecast, keeping the chip-equipment giant in focus as the new week starts. On Friday, ASML shares (ASML.AS) closed at €1,167.20 in Amsterdam, gaining 1.55% on the day. (Bloomberg)
Why it matters now: European semiconductor trade is fixated on one key issue — the duration of the next spending surge and how much of it translates into actual equipment orders. Bernstein analysts pointed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s 2026 capital expenditure plan, ranging from $52 billion to $56 billion, which suggests a 32% year-on-year increase at the midpoint, with a stronger focus on advanced logic. (Investing)
Morgan Stanley’s Lee Simpson raised his price target on ASML to €1,400 from €1,000, maintaining an “Overweight” rating and calling it a “Top Pick.” He highlighted “better than feared China demand” and a stronger capex cycle in 2027. Simpson also expects the “order intake over the next 2-3 quarters” to support this outlook, noting there’s potential for 80 EUV tools in 2027. (Investing)
EUV stands for “extreme ultraviolet” lithography, the cutting-edge technology for printing tiny features on silicon chips. DUV, or deep ultraviolet, is an older method but remains in broad use. High-NA represents the next step for EUV, aiming to boost resolution and enable smaller nodes. It’s a crucial product to watch since it could change product mix and impact margins.
The broader backdrop remains volatile. U.S. stocks closed almost unchanged on Friday, while the semiconductor index (.SOX) gained 1.2%. Traders are preparing for lighter volume ahead of Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day market holiday. “Historically the middle part of January tends to be pretty choppy,” noted Bruce Zaro of Granite Wealth Management. (Reuters)
There’s a catch to the rally: price and politics. “European equities aren’t cheap anymore, but they’re not expensive either,” said Morningstar strategist Michael Field, noting the “margin of safety” has narrowed. ASML faces a clear risk—if chipmakers curb orders or if export controls and geopolitical tensions weigh more heavily on China demand than expected, the earnings growth that bullish broker models forecast could be delayed. (Reuters)
At present, investors are using capex plans as a stand-in for bookings. That shortcut carries risks—chipmakers might pour money into construction and infrastructure well before the major tool deliveries come through, which themselves can be clustered.
In Europe’s upcoming session, traders will be monitoring if the post-note buying momentum sticks without any new catalyst. They’ll also see if chip equipment stocks follow the broader risk sentiment or begin to move on company-specific news. U.S.-listed counterparts like Applied Materials and Lam Research share the same capex cycle, but ASML remains the critical bottleneck, given the tight EUV supply.
The next key date is nearly here. ASML plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Wednesday, Jan. 28. The press release will drop at 07:00 CET, followed by a press conference later that morning, per the company’s investor calendar. (ASML)
