Amsterdam, Jan 27, 2026, 14:51 CET — Regular session.
- ASML shares climbed roughly 1% in Amsterdam as investors geared up for Wednesday’s earnings release.
- Broker notes over the past day maintained a mostly supportive tone ahead of the print.
- The big question now: will ASML raise its 2026 sales forecast amid a surge in AI-related chip demand?
ASML shares climbed roughly 1.1%, reaching about 1,190 euros on Tuesday and stayed close to their daily high. On Jan. 26, Evercore ISI reiterated a buy rating with a 1,300-euro price target. Barclays held its ground with a hold rating and a 1,200-euro target, per data from Investing.
The move comes a day ahead of ASML’s earnings, with investors eager to catch any shift in its 2026 outlook after the stock’s recent surge. Positioned in a narrow but vital segment of the AI supply chain, the chipmaking toolmaker has analysts watching closely to see if it upgrades its forecast for flat-to-modest sales growth in 2026. John West of semiconductor consultancy Yole Group called ASML’s extreme ultraviolet tools “the only game in town.” Mizuho’s Kevin Wang highlighted potential “China business upside” for 2026, and TechInsights senior fellow Dan Hutcheson warned that switching from ASML would be like “swapping a Formula One engine mid-race.” (Reuters)
The reason this matters now is straightforward: ASML’s order backlog and production outlook serve as a key indicator of the spending appetite among top chipmakers. Even a slight adjustment to its guidance can shift forecasts throughout the semiconductor equipment sector.
Lithography is the process of printing patterns onto silicon wafers with light during chip production. Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography employs a shorter wavelength compared to deep ultraviolet (DUV), which is crucial for creating the tiniest features in advanced chips — the kind found in high-end AI processors.
Traders aren’t just tuning in for the quarter’s numbers—they want to catch the tone. They’ll be on the lookout for hints of demand picking up beyond the current AI-driven surge, plus any news on how fast ASML can boost production of its top-tier machines.
ASML plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year results at 0700 CET on Wednesday. CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen will hold a press conference at 1100 CET, with an investor call set for 1500 CET, per the company’s investor page. (ASML)
Investors often zero in on “order intake” — or new orders booked — rather than just headline sales. That number can jump or drop dramatically from one quarter to the next. A big order figure might hide timing quirks, while a weak one could simply mean customers are pushing back delivery dates, not cancelling orders altogether.
ASML competes with Japan’s Nikon and Canon, as well as China’s SMEE, in older DUV machines. Yet, it stands alone as the sole supplier of EUV tools for cutting-edge chips. That edge underpins the bullish argument—and explains why the stock reacts sharply to any signs that major foundries or memory manufacturers might pull back on spending.
Yet after a solid rally into earnings, the risk of disappointment looms large. Should management maintain a cautious outlook for 2026, or if clients postpone equipment deliveries and shift orders forward, the stock could quickly falter—especially with elevated expectations already baked in.
Wednesday morning’s results and the guidance that comes with them are the next key trigger. Investors will be tuned in for the 0700 CET release, keen to see if management hints at a stronger 2026 outlook during the press conference and investor call—or decides to hold back on raising expectations.
