NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 18:05 ET — Market closed.
- ASML was last at $1,069.86, down 0.25% in the latest U.S. session; U.S. markets were shut Thursday for New Year’s Day.
- Reuters reported China is pressing chipmakers to source at least half of new-fab equipment domestically, sharpening focus on foreign tool exposure.
- Investors are looking ahead to early-January U.S. data and ASML’s late-January results for guidance signals.
ASML Holding N.V.’s U.S.-listed shares slipped in the latest session after Reuters reported China is pushing chipmakers to use more domestically made equipment when building out new capacity. The stock was last at $1,069.86, down 0.25% from the previous close, after trading between $1,068.40 and $1,081.99. U.S. equities were closed on Thursday for the New Year’s Day holiday. 1
The China angle matters because ASML sits at the center of the semiconductor supply chain, selling lithography tools — machines used to print circuits onto silicon wafers. Any policy-driven shift in Chinese spending can move expectations for global chip capital expenditure at the margin.
It lands at a moment when investors are trying to pin down what “normal” demand looks like in 2026, after a period when export rules and catch-up investment helped reshape order patterns. ASML’s bookings — its measure of new orders — and guidance are expected to be key swing factors when it next reports.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that Chinese chipmakers have been told they must use at least 50% domestically made equipment when adding new capacity, a policy that is not publicly documented. The report said companies seeking state approval must prove the threshold through procurement tenders, with flexibility where local alternatives are insufficient and looser requirements for advanced production lines; officials prefer a higher share over time, aiming ultimately for 100%. Reuters also said the shift is already helping domestic suppliers in areas such as etching — the step that removes material from wafers to carve transistor patterns — nudging out foreign firms such as Lam Research and Tokyo Electron in parts of the tool chain. 2
For ASML, the risk is less about its most advanced systems and more about volumes of older tools, where China is trying to substitute local equipment faster. No extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system — the cutting-edge technology used for leading-edge chips — has ever been sold to a customer in China, ASML told Reuters, but China was still ASML’s largest market in 2024, representing 36% of sales, Reuters reported. 3
Export controls stayed in focus after TSMC said the U.S. Commerce Department granted its Nanjing unit an annual export license that allows U.S. export‑controlled chipmaking items to be supplied without individual vendor licenses. The move replaces an expiring privilege known as validated end-user status — a waiver that previously allowed certain tool shipments to China fabs under broader exemptions. 4
Reuters separately reported U.S. approvals for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to bring chipmaking tools to their China facilities for 2026, highlighting the shift toward renewable, time-limited permissions rather than open-ended waivers. For equipment suppliers, that framework keeps compliance risk and administrative friction on the radar even when operations continue. 5
Geopolitics involving the Netherlands remains a live wire. China urged the Dutch government to correct what it called “mistakes” related to chipmaker Nexperia, Reuters reported, underscoring the potential for policy spillover into the European semiconductor ecosystem. 6
China’s macro data offered a mixed backdrop for demand expectations. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) — a survey-based gauge of factory activity — rose back into expansion territory in December, but economists warned the upturn may not last. “The big picture is that the structural headwinds from the property downturn and industrial overcapacity are set to persist in 2026,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics. 7
Before the next U.S. session on Friday, traders will be watching whether ASML holds above the $1,068 area and challenges the $1,082 zone again, using Wednesday’s range as a near-term map. Any fresh signals on China’s procurement enforcement — or on U.S. licensing mechanics — could also move sentiment quickly in the chip-equipment group.
On the macro calendar, investors will focus on the Institute for Supply Management’s December manufacturing report due on Jan. 5, followed by the U.S. employment report for December on Jan. 9. The Federal Reserve’s first scheduled policy meeting of 2026 is set for Jan. 27-28, a key marker for rate expectations that often steer growth and tech valuations. 8
Company-specific attention then turns to Jan. 28, when ASML is due to publish fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results. Investors will be looking for bookings, gross margin commentary and management’s read-through on how much 2026 demand depends on China versus leading-edge builds in Taiwan and South Korea. 9
