AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) ended Christmas Eve trading with a dramatic reversal that highlights both the promise — and the volatility — of the direct-to-cell satellite theme. In the holiday-shortened session on Wednesday, Dec. 24, ASTS surged early on confirmation that its next-generation BlueBird 6 satellite reached orbit, then slid sharply into the close. [1]
With U.S. equity markets closed on Christmas Day (Thursday, Dec. 25), the more practical question for investors is what to watch before markets reopen on Friday, Dec. 26 — especially as AST SpaceMobile enters a critical “execution phase” where engineering milestones can move the stock as much as headlines. [2]
ASTS stock price action today: big pop, sharp fade into the early close
In the shortened Dec. 24 session, AST SpaceMobile shares spiked to about $92.95–$92.86 intraday before reversing lower and finishing down about 8.9% at $78.05 at the 1:00 p.m. ET close. [3]
After the bell: In the first stretch of post-market activity, ASTS ticked up modestly to around $78.29 (+0.31%) as of about 1:30 p.m. ET (after-hours liquidity can be thin on early-close days). [4]
Today’s action unfolded during a broader market backdrop that was upbeat but quiet: U.S. stocks finished a holiday-shortened day near record levels with thin volume overall — the kind of tape where single-name volatility can look exaggerated. [5]
The catalyst: BlueBird 6 successfully reaches orbit — and it’s a big deal technically
AST SpaceMobile said it achieved a successful orbital launch of BlueBird 6, calling it the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in low Earth orbit and the first of its next-generation BlueBird satellites. [6]
Independent space coverage added useful context on what happened in flight:
- BlueBird 6 launched on India’s LVM3 rocket from Satish Dhawan Space Centre on Dec. 23 at 10:25 p.m. ET, and was deployed roughly 15.5 minutes after liftoff into low Earth orbit. [7]
- Space.com reported the satellite’s array size at nearly 2,400 square feet, and noted BlueBird 6 is the first of AST’s next-generation designs. [8]
AST’s own release emphasized the “why it matters” for investors: BlueBird 6 is designed to deliver space-based 4G/5G broadband directly to standard, unmodified smartphones, and the company highlighted peak data rates of up to 120 Mbps for unmodified mobile devices. [9]
Why did ASTS fall even after “good news”?
When a stock runs hard into a catalyst, the market can respond with a classic “sell the news” reaction — especially when the next phase is less about headlines and more about step-by-step execution.
Several dynamics likely contributed to the fade:
1) The market’s focus shifts from “launch” to “deploy and prove”
A successful launch is essential, but investors often price in the next questions immediately: Will the array deploy cleanly? How fast will commissioning proceed? When do real-world performance updates arrive? (More on the key checkpoints below.) [10]
2) Heavy speculative positioning showed up in options
Options activity surged alongside the news cycle. Schaeffer’s reported options volume running well above typical levels, with calls outpacing puts and notable activity in short-dated contracts. [11]
3) Short interest remains meaningful — which can amplify moves both ways
Schaeffer’s also flagged short interest in the mid-teens as a percentage of float, a setup that can contribute to sharp rallies (short covering) and equally sharp pullbacks (profit-taking). [12]
4) Holiday week liquidity can exaggerate reversals
Dec. 24 is an early close day, and U.S. markets are closed Dec. 25 — conditions that often widen spreads and reduce depth, particularly after the bell. Official calendars also show that while the core session ended at 1:00 p.m. ET, certain “late trading sessions” run to 5:00 p.m. ET, but that doesn’t guarantee normal liquidity. [13]
The roadmap investors are trading: cadence, constellation scale, and commercialization
Today’s press release matters because it ties BlueBird 6 to a very specific operational ramp.
AST SpaceMobile reiterated expectations that it aims to:
- Launch 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026
- Maintain a launch cadence of roughly every 1–2 months through that build-out phase
The company also pointed to commercial readiness and distribution leverage via its operator ecosystem, stating it has agreements with more than 50 mobile network operators (representing nearly 3 billion subscribers) and cited partnerships across the telecom and infrastructure landscape.
For investors, this framing is crucial: the stock is no longer moving only on whether AST’s “direct-to-cell” concept works in principle — it’s increasingly trading on whether AST can execute a repeatable manufacturing + launch + commissioning cycle fast enough to reach meaningful coverage and recurring revenue.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: wide dispersion, and many targets sit below today’s price
One reason AST SpaceMobile can be tricky to trade is that “forecast” data varies significantly depending on the source and analyst set being aggregated. As of today, several widely followed compilations show a broad range:
- Investing.com listed an average 12‑month analyst price target around $71.51 (high estimate $95, low $43) — implying downside from today’s close. [14]
- TipRanks described a Moderate Buy consensus and an average price target around $72.39, also below today’s price. [15]
- StockAnalysis showed a consensus “Buy,” but with a lower average target near $59.37 (high $95, low $30), underscoring just how split forecasts are. [16]
- Zacks summarized targets ranging from $43 to $95. [17]
How to interpret this before the next session: ASTS is trading like an execution story that bulls think can surprise to the upside — but many published targets still reflect caution about valuation, financing needs, and timelines. That tension is exactly what produces days like today.
What to watch before markets reopen Friday, Dec. 26
Because the U.S. market is closed Thursday, Dec. 25, the “tomorrow morning” setup is really about the next live trading day: Friday, Dec. 26. [18]
Here are the most actionable things to monitor in the meantime:
1) BlueBird 6 deployment and commissioning updates
Investors will be listening for any confirmation around:
- Antenna/array deployment
- Power and thermal performance
- First links and early service demonstrations
Even without a full commercial rollout, incremental technical updates can move the stock sharply.
2) Clarity on the next launch and cadence
AST has framed a 2026 cadence of launches every 1–2 months and a 45–60 satellite goal by end‑2026. Any scheduling confirmation — or slippage — tends to be market-moving for “constellation ramp” names.
3) Liquidity and execution risk: use discipline if you trade it
On early-close/holiday weeks, after-hours and the next open can be jumpy. If you trade around it, consider practical guardrails (like limit orders) rather than assuming normal depth.
4) Positioning signals: options and short interest
Today’s elevated options activity is a reminder that positioning can overpower fundamentals in the short run. If call volume stays elevated into Friday, expect larger intraday swings. [19]
5) Broader “risk-on” tape vs. single-name reality
The major indexes rose again in the holiday-shortened session, but ASTS still sold off hard after a bullish headline — a sign that name-specific expectations (and valuation sensitivity) are dominating near-term price action. [20]
Bottom line for AST SpaceMobile stock after the bell
AST SpaceMobile delivered the headline bulls wanted: BlueBird 6 is in orbit, moving the company closer to demonstrating scalable, direct-to-smartphone connectivity from space. [21]
But today’s price action — a surge to the low $90s followed by a close near $78 — shows the market is already looking past “launch success” to the harder questions: deployment, commissioning, cadence, and commercialization. [22]
With markets closed on Dec. 25 and reopening Dec. 26, ASTS enters the next session as a high-volatility, catalyst-driven stock where execution updates (and positioning) can matter as much as fundamentals.
References
1. www.investors.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.investors.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.space.com, 8. www.space.com, 9. ca.investing.com, 10. www.space.com, 11. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 12. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 13. www.nyse.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.zacks.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.space.com, 22. www.investors.com
