NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 7:09 a.m. ET — Market closed
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) heads into the weekend after another high-volatility stretch that’s quickly becoming the stock’s signature. Shares finished Friday at $71.95, down 7.82%, after trading between $71.03 and $77.40 on roughly 19.3 million shares—well above recent average volume. [1]
The drop came during a quiet, post-Christmas session for U.S. equities, with major indexes barely moving in thin year-end trading. [2] But ASTS didn’t get the memo about “quiet.” The stock has been whipsawing as investors weigh a very real milestone—BlueBird 6 is now in orbit—against very real questions about valuation, execution risk, funding needs, and how quickly the company can translate space hardware into recurring revenue.
What happened to ASTS stock on Friday
Friday’s slide extended a sharp reversal from earlier in the week. According to historical pricing data, ASTS closed at $78.05 on Dec. 24 after an intense session that saw the stock hit an intraday high near $92.95 before fading. Two sessions later, it ended Friday at $71.95, marking a steep pullback from that midweek peak. [3]
MarketBeat characterized Friday’s action as a heavy-volume decline, noting the stock fell about 7.8% and traded near session lows as volume ran above typical levels. [4]
That combination—big price swing, big volume—usually signals investors are actively re-pricing a narrative, not simply drifting on holiday illiquidity.
The key catalyst in the news cycle: BlueBird 6 is in orbit
The bull case for AST SpaceMobile has always been about turning an audacious engineering premise into a repeatable commercial system: space-based cellular broadband that works directly with standard smartphones (no special dish, no exotic handset).
This week’s milestone was significant because BlueBird 6 is the company’s first next-generation “BlueBird” satellite. Space.com reported that India’s LVM3 rocket launched BlueBird 6 on Dec. 23 at 10:25 p.m. ET, deploying it about 15.5 minutes later into low Earth orbit around 324 miles (521 kilometers) above Earth. [5]
In the last 24–48 hours, the most detailed company-linked recap circulating widely came via SpaceDaily, which reported AST had confirmed the successful orbital placement of BlueBird 6 and reiterated key performance targets. The article also quoted CEO Abel Avellan describing the launch as a turning point:
“BlueBird 6 is a breakthrough moment for AST SpaceMobile.” [6]
AST’s own announcement—distributed via Business Wire earlier this week—framed BlueBird 6 as a major step-change in capability, highlighting a communications array spanning nearly 2,400 square feet and designed to enable peak data rates up to 120 Mbps directly to unmodified mobile devices. [7]
In other words: the “space tower” concept is getting larger, more capable, and closer to a scale-out phase.
Why the stock fell anyway: milestone ≠ monetization (yet)
The market’s reaction—especially the fade after a major satellite milestone—may look counterintuitive, but it’s a familiar pattern in speculative, catalyst-driven equities:
- Buy the rumor, sell the news.
When a stock rallies hard into a known event, the event’s success can trigger profit-taking rather than fresh buying—particularly into year-end. - Investors are pricing execution risk, not just engineering risk.
Even with BlueBird 6 in orbit, AST still must execute a long chain of next steps: deploy and validate the satellite’s large phased-array system, conduct testing, integrate with partner networks, secure regulatory clearances across jurisdictions, manufacture at scale, and launch frequently enough to build usable coverage. - Valuation questions don’t go away just because a rocket works.
In recent commentary, Seeking Alpha summarized the push-pull investors are debating: meaningful long-term potential, but also concerns about overvaluation and execution uncertainties after a massive run-up. [8]
Trefis echoed that tension in a Dec. 26 analysis, arguing the launch is a validation event but also emphasizing that AST is still early in operational rollout—where expectations can outrun near-term fundamentals. [9]
The “insider selling” chatter: what’s confirmed vs. what’s speculation
When a momentum stock drops hard, the internet tends to go looking for a single villain. This week, some trading commentary pointed to insider selling as part of the bearish narrative. Benzinga options columnist Josh Enomoto wrote that some market pessimism “could be tied to insider selling,” while also noting the end-of-year context. [10]
Here’s what’s confirmed in SEC filings (facts, not vibes):
- CTO Huiwen Yao reported selling 40,000 shares on Dec. 5, 2025, with a weighted average selling price of $73.52. The Form 4 states the transaction was made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on June 12, 2025. [11]
- COO Shanti Gupta reported selling 10,000 shares on Dec. 10, 2025, at $77.34. [12]
Those sales occurred earlier in December, not in the last 48 hours. They may contribute to sentiment, but they do not automatically explain Friday’s move. The more defensible takeaway is narrower: ASTS is trading in a way where any incremental negative (or merely “not-perfect”) headline can amplify volatility.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: a wide range, with big-name firms on both sides
For investors trying to anchor the chaos, analyst targets provide a useful “street map”—but not a single destination.
Investing.com’s consensus snapshot shows an overall “Buy” consensus (based on recent analyst inputs), with an average 12‑month target around $71.51, and estimates ranging from $43 (low) to $95 (high). [13]
Quiver Quant’s tracking of recent targets highlights just how divergent those views are—and names the analysts behind them. In the last six months, Quiver lists targets including: [14]
- Andres Coello (Scotiabank): $45.6
- Greg Pendy (Clear Street): $87.0
- Mike Crawford (B. Riley Securities): $95.0
- Mathieu Robilliard (Barclays): $60.0
- Christopher Schoell (UBS): $43.0
- Michael Funk (BofA Securities): $55.0
So you’ve got a genuine spread: some analysts effectively say “the upside story is real, but the stock is ahead of itself,” while others are willing to underwrite a much larger long-term opportunity.
A separate aggregator view from MarketBeat described the analyst picture as mixed and cited a consensus leaning “Hold” with a lower average price target on its dataset. [15] The practical point: different platforms pull different analyst universes and weighting methods, so “the consensus” can look very different depending on where you’re standing.
Fundamentals snapshot: progress, partnerships, and the cost of building a constellation
AST isn’t a mature telecom company; it’s a company trying to become one, from orbit.
In its third-quarter 2025 update, AST emphasized commercial traction and partner commitments—reporting over $1 billion in aggregate contracted revenue commitments from partners and calling out definitive agreements, including with Verizon and stc Group. [16]
That same update also underscored the financial reality of building a satellite network: heavy operating expenses and significant capital requirements. The company reported GAAP revenue of $14.7 million in Q3 2025 and detailed substantial quarterly operating expenses, while also highlighting liquidity resources (including cash and pro forma liquidity figures tied to financing and facility capacity). [17]
This is the core investor tension in one line: AST is making tangible technical progress, but the business model is still transitioning from “build and prove” to “sell and scale.”
Options and technical positioning: the market is pricing “big moves”
ASTS has become a favorite playground for options traders precisely because it behaves like a live wire.
In his Dec. 26 Benzinga column, Josh Enomoto argued that ASTS can be difficult to trade because of its “highly kinetic” moves, and he laid out an example bullish spread structure that assumes the stock is more likely to trade in a bounded range over the coming weeks than sprint to new highs immediately. [18]
Whether one agrees with that trade idea or not, it reflects a broader point: the options market is treating ASTS as a high-volatility name where timing and path matter as much as direction.
What investors should know before the next session (Monday, Dec. 29)
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, ASTS investors effectively have a “cool-down lap” before Monday’s open. Here are the items most likely to matter:
1) Watch for confirmation of post-launch milestones.
Launch and orbital insertion are huge—but investors will be listening for updates on deployment and operational milestones that move BlueBird 6 from “in orbit” to “working as intended,” especially given the satellite’s record-scale array and the complexity of in-orbit commissioning. [19]
2) Expect year-end liquidity and positioning effects.
Friday’s session was thin and nearly flat for the major indexes, with Reuters and AP both describing light post-holiday trading conditions. [20] Into the final trading days of the year, price action can be shaped by rebalancing, profit-taking, and risk management as much as fundamentals—especially for high-beta names.
3) Know the levels traders are staring at.
ASTS just printed lows near $71 and closed at $71.95 on heavy volume. Those prices tend to become reference points for Monday’s first hour—because many traders will define risk around “does it break Friday’s low, or reclaim Friday’s range?” [21]
4) Analyst narratives are split—so headlines can hit harder.
With targets spanning roughly the low-$40s to the mid-$90s, incremental updates (technical, regulatory, commercial, or financing-related) can quickly shift the “which camp is right?” debate. [22]
5) Remember what kind of stock this is right now.
ASTS is not trading like a slow-and-steady telecom name; it’s trading like a frontier infrastructure bet. That means even good news can be met with selling if expectations have outrun the news flow—and bad news can cascade if liquidity thins.
Bottom line
As of this weekend in New York, the market is closed, but the AST SpaceMobile story is very much “open.” BlueBird 6’s successful launch and orbital deployment strengthens the company’s credibility at a critical moment in its scale-up roadmap. [23]
At the same time, the stock’s violent pullback—down to $71.95 on Friday—shows that investors are still wrestling with the gap between technical milestones and durable, scaled revenue. [24]
Monday’s session won’t settle that argument, but it will likely reveal which force has the louder voice right now: conviction buyers treating weakness as opportunity, or risk managers treating volatility as a reason to step back until the next clear milestone lands.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.space.com, 6. www.spacedaily.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. seekingalpha.com, 9. www.trefis.com, 10. www.benzinga.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.quiverquant.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.benzinga.com, 19. www.space.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.space.com, 24. stockanalysis.com
