Dec. 25, 2025 — AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) is ending 2025 the way speculative “future-of-connectivity” stocks tend to end years: with a headline-grabbing technical milestone, a massive burst of trading activity, and a share price that refuses to move in a straight line.
The catalyst is BlueBird 6—AST SpaceMobile’s first next‑generation satellite aimed at delivering 4G/5G cellular broadband directly to standard, unmodified smartphones. The company confirmed the satellite reached orbit after launching from India late on Dec. 23 (U.S. time), and the stock’s reaction on Christmas Eve was dramatic: ASTS spiked early, then reversed hard into the close, underscoring the market’s tug-of-war between long-term vision and short-term execution risk. [1]
Below is a detailed, up-to-date roundup of the news, forecasts, and analyst/market analysis circulating on Dec. 25, 2025, plus the key drivers investors are watching next.
What happened: BlueBird 6 reached orbit, and ASTS stock turned volatile
AST SpaceMobile says BlueBird 6 is now in low Earth orbit, describing it as the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in LEO. The company puts the satellite’s communications array at nearly 2,400 square feet, and says the design targets peak data rates up to 120 Mbps directly to everyday phones—no special satellite handset required. [2]
Space coverage of the mission highlighted just how oversized this spacecraft is by normal standards. According to Space.com’s reporting, the launch took place at 10:25 p.m. EST on Dec. 23 (Dec. 24 in India), and the satellite was deployed roughly 15.5 minutes later into orbit at about 324 miles (521 km) altitude. Space.com also reported a mass of about 13,450 pounds (6,100 kg)—notably the heaviest payload delivered by India’s LVM3 rocket. [3]
The stock move: a spike, then a reversal into the close
In the last reported session before Christmas Day (Dec. 24), ASTS saw a huge intraday range. Data from the market close shows ASTS closed at $78.05, after trading as high as roughly $92.85 and as low as roughly $76.98, with volume around 26 million shares. [4]
Investors.com summarized the mood perfectly: strong launch news, followed by a sharp reversal, a pattern typical of high-expectation, pre-profit story stocks when the “big moment” finally arrives. [5]
Why the BlueBird 6 milestone matters for AST SpaceMobile’s business model
AST SpaceMobile’s bet is simple to state and brutally hard to execute: build a space-based cellular network that works with existing phones and integrates with existing mobile operators, turning satellites into something like “cell towers in space.”
BlueBird 6 is important because it moves the company from “tests and demos” toward repeatable deployment of a higher-capacity generation of satellites. In its launch announcement, AST said the event “marks the transition to scaled deployment,” and reiterated a target of 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026, with launches planned every one or two months on average. [6]
Industry reporting has framed the same idea in more operational terms: AST has described an initial phase of intermittent coverage (service that isn’t continuous everywhere) before it can reach true continuous coverage. Light Reading, citing commentary from AST’s Q3 earnings call, reported the company expects “intermittent nationwide” service in early 2026 in selected markets, with “continuous” service later in 2026 as more satellites come online. [7]
2026 rollout forecast: how many satellites, how fast, and where coverage starts
This is where most of the 2025–2026 bull vs. bear debate lives: launch cadence and commissioning.
Company target: 45–60 satellites by end of 2026
AST repeated in its BlueBird 6 release that it aims to launch 45–60 satellites by end of 2026. [8]
Light Reading added key “network math” context: the company indicated that an initial constellation of 25 BlueBird satellites (a mix of Block 1 and Block 2) could be enough for noncontinuous coverage, while 45–60 satellites could enable continuous service across major regions including the U.S. and parts of Europe and other strategic markets. [9]
Manufacturing tempo: “six satellites per month”
Scaling satellites isn’t like scaling software. It’s closer to scaling aircraft production—supply chain, QA, testing, and launch availability all have to align.
AST’s press release said it operates significant manufacturing capacity and employs more than 1,800 employees. [10]
Light Reading reported AST has said it ramped manufacturing capacity to produce six satellites per month (as of December) as it prepares for a compressed launch schedule. [11]
Launch cadence: every ~45 days (a widely cited goal)
MarketWatch reported AST plans launches every 45 days in 2026, and suggested intermittent direct-to-cell service in the U.S. could begin in early 2026. [12]
That cadence is also echoed in sector coverage focused on the company’s schedule disclosures and launch planning. [13]
Partnerships driving the bull case: Verizon, Vodafone, and 50+ operators
AST’s approach is to partner with major mobile network operators rather than compete with them as a consumer carrier. In its BlueBird 6 announcement, AST said it has agreements with over 50 mobile network operators covering nearly 3 billion subscribers, and named strategic relationships including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, Google, American Tower, Bell, and stc Group. [14]
Verizon: commercial service starting in 2026
A widely circulated partnership update this fall came via Verizon’s announcement of space-based cellular services starting in 2026, tied to AST SpaceMobile’s network development. [15]
MarketWatch framed that Verizon deal as validation for the broader satellite-stock boom and the direct-to-device theme. [16]
Vodafone: Europe-led satellite constellation initiative
Reuters reported in November that Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile plan a Europe-led satellite constellation initiative aimed at satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for commercial and government use, including a proposed European operational center in Germany and a focus on security features. Reuters also cited a projection that the satellite-to-phone connectivity market could exceed $10 billion by 2033 (Novaspace). [17]
Regulatory and spectrum storyline: competition with Starlink is shaping the filings
Direct-to-device isn’t just engineering—it’s spectrum rights, licensing, and regulatory approvals.
A notable December regulatory thread came from Fierce Network: Ligado is seeking FCC approval related to its L-band license modification in order to pursue a partnership with AST SpaceMobile, explicitly framing the argument around the need for competition beyond SpaceX/Starlink’s expanding footprint in direct-to-device. [18]
That same reporting underscored why telecom partners might back AST strategically: SpaceX’s scale advantage is enormous, and carriers may not want a future where a single satellite provider dominates the market. [19]
Wall Street forecasts: price targets are all over the map (and that’s the point)
If you’re looking for a clean, unanimous analyst view on ASTS… that unicorn does not exist.
As of Dec. 25, 2025, different aggregators show meaningfully different “consensus” pictures:
- MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of Hold, based on 11 analyst ratings (3 Sell, 5 Hold, 3 Buy). It shows an average price target of $45.66, with a high of $60 and a low of $30 (as displayed on its forecast page). [20]
- Investing.com displays a consensus based on 8 analysts with an average 12‑month target of about $71.51, a high of $95, and a low of $43, and labels the consensus rating as “Buy.” [21]
How to interpret the gap
This kind of divergence usually comes down to:
- different analyst sets included,
- different “last updated” timestamps,
- and whether older targets remain in the dataset after the stock has moved violently.
The practical takeaway isn’t “which site is right,” it’s that ASTS is being valued more like an outcome-weighted bet than a normal telecom equipment name: analysts and models disagree on how quickly AST can turn satellites into durable, high-margin service revenue.
Earnings and financial runway: revenue is rising, but profitability is still the big cliff
AST SpaceMobile is still in the expensive phase: building and launching hardware before the network is fully monetized.
Q3 2025: big revenue growth, but a notable miss
MarketBeat’s earnings summary shows AST reported Q3 2025 EPS of -$0.45, missing consensus expectations, and revenue around $14.74 million (up sharply year over year, but below some estimates). [22]
Barron’s similarly noted the Q3 loss and revenue level, while emphasizing the year-over-year improvement and the longer-term revenue ramp expectations analysts are modeling. [23]
Forward revenue expectations (the “if this works” narrative)
Barron’s reported that analysts were projecting 2026 sales far above 2025 levels (the article cited $267 million projected 2026 sales versus $56.4 million expected in 2025), highlighting just how steep the expected ramp is if deployment stays on schedule. [24]
Capital raising: AST has been funding the buildout aggressively
AST has also been explicit in filings and releases about financing network deployment:
- A U.S. SEC document (exhibit press release filed Oct. 21, 2025) describes AST’s pricing of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2036, with estimated net proceeds of about $981.9 million, intended for general corporate purposes including funding constellation deployment. [25]
- In July 2025, AST announced a $100 million equipment financing facility described as non-dilutive financing to support accelerated manufacturing and network deployment goals. [26]
This is the tradeoff investors keep scoring: progress de-risks the tech, but the constellation still requires substantial capital, and the market remains sensitive to dilution or debt-like financing.
Market sentiment today: options surge, meaningful short interest, and insider selling headlines
ASTS is not trading like a sleepy mid-cap. It’s trading like an event-driven story with a giant derivatives shadow.
Options activity spiked during the launch reaction
TipRanks/TheFly reported that options volume was more than double the daily average, citing 245,000 contracts traded with calls leading puts and a put/call ratio around 0.45. [27]
Schaeffer’s reported that earlier in the session, about 75,000 calls and 40,000 puts had traded, describing options volume as running at roughly six times typical intraday levels at that point. [28]
Short interest remains significant
MarketBeat’s short-interest page reported that as of Dec. 15, 2025, AST had about 38.12 million shares sold short, representing roughly 15.03% of the public float. [29]
Schaeffer’s cited a similar magnitude (mid‑30 millions) and a mid‑teens percentage of float in its Dec. 24 note, consistent with a stock that remains heavily debated on both sides. [30]
Insider and major-holder selling is part of the December backdrop
Form 4 summaries and market coverage have highlighted notable sales activity in December, including a large sale attributed to American Tower Corp (listed as part of a 10% owner group in the Form 4 summary) and smaller executive transactions. [31]
It’s worth keeping this in perspective: insider selling can happen for many reasons (taxes, diversification, planned sales), but in a high-volatility stock it tends to amplify investor nerves—especially when the market is already fixated on the funding needs of a capital-intensive constellation.
Competing with Starlink: the unavoidable comparison
The direct-to-device space is rapidly becoming a competitive market, not a science project.
Reuters noted AST’s plan to reach up to 60 satellites by 2026 while contrasting it with Starlink’s much larger fleet (Reuters cited Starlink with more than 8,000 satellites). [32]
Fierce Network reported SpaceX has already placed hundreds of direct-to-device satellites in orbit and launched a commercial service with T‑Mobile in October after a long beta period, reinforcing the “AST must execute fast” pressure. [33]
AST’s counter-positioning is essentially: work with carriers, integrate into their spectrum and billing relationships, and offer a direct-to-standard-smartphone service that carriers can treat as an extension of their network rather than a replacement.
What investors are watching next after Dec. 25, 2025
With BlueBird 6 in orbit, the story shifts from launch risk to commissioning, performance proof, and repeatability. The key “next chapters” investors are tracking include:
- Commissioning and in-orbit performance
- The next proof points are service quality metrics: throughput, latency, voice/data performance, and how the system behaves under real-world load.
- Launch cadence in early 2026
- Multiple sources point to an aggressive 2026 schedule (every month or two, ~45-day cadence), making schedule discipline itself a market-moving variable. [34]
- Operator trials and commercial rollout timing
- Light Reading reported AST expectations for intermittent service in early 2026 and continuous coverage later in 2026 as satellites accumulate. [35]
- Regulatory wins (and spectrum access)
- The Ligado/FCC process and broader spectrum/regulatory positioning could materially affect U.S. capacity and competitive posture. [36]
- Financial updates
- Investors will keep weighing funding progress against dilution risk—especially as manufacturing and launches accelerate. [37]
Bottom line on AST SpaceMobile stock on Dec. 25, 2025
As of today, the AST SpaceMobile stock narrative has crystallized into a high-stakes checklist:
- Technology milestone achieved: BlueBird 6 is in orbit, and AST is showcasing a very large, high-capacity satellite architecture designed for direct-to-smartphone broadband. [38]
- Market is still split: price targets and ratings vary widely across tracking platforms, reflecting uncertainty about timeline, cost, and eventual margins. [39]
- Trading is event-driven: massive options activity, meaningful short interest, and high volatility signal that ASTS remains a battleground stock. [40]
- Execution is everything in 2026: AST’s stated goal—dozens of launches and early commercial service—will likely be the primary determinant of whether this stock behaves like a compounding growth story or a boom-and-bust prototype cycle. [41]
References
1. www.businesswire.com, 2. www.businesswire.com, 3. www.space.com, 4. www.investors.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. www.lightreading.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.lightreading.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.lightreading.com, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. www.advanced-television.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. apnews.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.fierce-network.com, 19. www.fierce-network.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.barrons.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.businesswire.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 31. www.secform4.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.fierce-network.com, 34. www.marketwatch.com, 35. www.lightreading.com, 36. www.fierce-network.com, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. www.businesswire.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.tipranks.com, 41. www.businesswire.com
