NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 4:11 a.m. ET — Market closed
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) heads into the final week of 2025 with a familiar cocktail for shareholders: real technological progress, headline-driven volatility, and a market trying to decide whether it’s watching the birth of a telecom giant—or just another space-stock hype cycle.
With U.S. equities closed for the weekend, ASTS investors are looking back at Friday’s sharp decline and sorting the signal from the noise: a post-launch “cooling off” period, renewed attention on insider selling, and ongoing debate about valuation versus long-term upside tied to the company’s direct-to-device satellite strategy. TipRanks
ASTS stock: where it left off before the weekend
AST SpaceMobile shares finished the last regular session (Friday, Dec. 26) around $71.95, down about 7.8% from the prior close, after trading roughly between $71.03 and $77.40 during the session. AAII
That drop matters not just because it was steep, but because it followed an unusually intense stretch of attention around BlueBird 6—attention that pushed the stock to wide intraday swings earlier in the week and left traders primed to take profits quickly. TipRanks
The last 24–48 hours: what’s driving the conversation now
1) “Hype reset” after BlueBird 6 headlines
A TipRanks weekend note framed the past week’s pullback as less about a new operational setback and more about market mechanics: profit-taking after a surge, elevated expectations, and a new wave of focus on execution risk in the rollout plan. TipRanks
Benzinga’s recap of retail chatter (Dec. 22–Dec. 26) also highlights how intensely ASTS circulated on social platforms during the week, with BlueBird 6 as the central storyline—often a recipe for sharp reversals once the crowd looks for the next catalyst. Benzinga
2) Insider-sale narrative resurfaces (even though the trade was earlier)
A big chunk of the “why did it drop?” narrative hinges on insider selling—specifically sales tied to AST SpaceMobile CTO Huiwen Yao. A Form 4 filed in early December shows Yao sold 40,000 shares (with a weighted average price listed at $73.52), and the filing explicitly indicates the trade was under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Otcmarkets
The key nuance many weekend readers miss: the filing itself flags it as pre-planned. The Form 4 notes the transaction was “pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan” adopted earlier in the year. Otcmarkets
Trefis argued that Friday’s selloff looked like a sentiment reaction to this insider-sale storyline overwhelming the otherwise positive satellite milestone—an example of how “old” information can still move a momentum stock when it becomes newly amplified. Trefis
3) Options activity and volatility remain part of the ASTS identity
Even without a live Sunday market, ASTS remains a trader’s playground. TipRanks’ weekend write-up noted options activity as a key backdrop—calls still leading puts and implied volatility staying elevated, implying the market continues to price in big daily moves. TipRanks
Independent options-data trackers also show ASTS carrying very high implied volatility levels and heavy options volume around the end of last week—conditions that tend to magnify price reactions to any new headline (or recycled headline). OptionCharts
BlueBird 6: why the milestone still matters, even as the stock chops around
The fundamental story is still orbiting (pun fully intended) around BlueBird 6, AST SpaceMobile’s next-generation satellite designed to connect standard, unmodified smartphones directly from space.
In a company release distributed via Business Wire, AST SpaceMobile described BlueBird 6 as spanning nearly 2,400 square feet and designed for peak data rates “up to 120 Mbps” directly to everyday devices. Founder, Chairman, and CEO Abel Avellan called BlueBird 6 a “breakthrough moment” that “marks the transition to scaled deployment.” Business Wire
Space.com’s reporting on the mission adds detail around the launch timeline: BlueBird 6 lifted off from India aboard an LVM3 rocket on Dec. 23 and was deployed into orbit about 15.5 minutes later at roughly 324 miles (521 km) altitude. Space
AST’s stated ambition after this step is not subtle: the company has pointed to plans to launch 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026, with launches occurring about every one or two months on average. Business Wire
In plain English: BlueBird 6 isn’t just another satellite. It’s meant to be the bridge from “spectacular demo” to “repeatable manufacturing and deployment cadence,” which is what the market ultimately needs to see to justify long-term valuation. Business Wire
Forecasts and analyst framing: big upside claims, big disagreement on valuation
ASTS attracts an unusually wide spread of opinions—partly because it sits at the intersection of telecom infrastructure, space hardware, spectrum/regulation, and consumer connectivity. In that kind of story, forecasting becomes less like spreadsheet math and more like scenario planning.
Growth expectations are aggressive
A Motley Fool commentary published on Nasdaq.com late Saturday (ET) pointed to sell-side forecasts expecting AST SpaceMobile’s sales to surge in 2026, citing estimates that imply triple-digit percentage growth and projecting a path toward positive earnings later in the decade. Nasdaq
That’s the bull case in one sentence: commercialization ramps, satellites scale, revenues follow.
Price targets: named analysts and targets vary widely
AST SpaceMobile’s own investor relations site lists coverage from multiple firms and specific analysts (including B. Riley’s Mike Crawford, Barclays’ Mathieu Robilliard, Clear Street’s Greg Pendy, Scotiabank’s Andres Coello, UBS’ Christopher Schoell, and others). Ast Science
Meanwhile, Quiver Quantitative’s roundup of recent targets (as tracked in its dataset) shows a wide range of published price targets in recent months—from the $40s at the low end to the $90s at the high end—underscoring how differently analysts are modeling risk, timelines, and dilution/financing needs. Quiver Quantitative
A valuation tug-of-war is explicit in third-party analysis
AAII’s stock write-up highlights a point value investors keep repeating: ASTS has negative trailing EPS, so traditional valuation lenses (like P/E) don’t apply cleanly, and alternative valuation metrics can look stretched during momentum surges. AAII
This is the core tension investors will keep trading until the company’s execution becomes boring (which, ironically, would be bullish): the stock is pricing in future network scale before the full constellation exists.
What investors should know before the next session opens
Because the market is closed now, the practical question is: what could change sentiment before Monday’s opening bell? Here are the big, concrete items traders typically key on in a name like ASTS:
Watch for new filings and insider-trade headlines.
Even when insider sales are pre-scheduled (as the CTO’s December Form 4 indicates), fresh social-media amplification can move the stock. If additional Form 4s appear, the market will parse whether they look like routine 10b5-1 activity or something more discretionary. Otcmarkets
Look for operational updates tied to “commissioning” and deployment progress.
The milestone wasn’t merely launch—it’s turning a satellite into a working, reliable node. Any update on BlueBird 6 deployment/activation cadence or testing progress can sway expectations for the broader 2026 rollout. Business Wire
Expect volatility to stay elevated.
With options activity and implied volatility still high, ASTS can gap hard on relatively small news. That cuts both ways: it can juice rallies, and it can punish crowded positioning. TipRanks
Know where the “next catalyst” window may be.
Earnings-date calendars are not perfectly aligned across providers, but Zacks currently lists ASTS’ next earnings release as expected in early March 2026. Until AST confirms a date, treat calendars as estimates—but they still influence trader positioning. Zacks
Remember what actually moved the stock Friday.
Multiple weekend analyses converged on the idea that the pullback looks like a reset after a hype-driven burst—profit-taking plus refreshed execution-risk debates—more than a single new negative development about BlueBird 6 itself. TipRanks
Bottom line
AST SpaceMobile stock is closing 2025 in a very “ASTS” way: dramatic upside narrative powered by real engineering milestones, paired with mood swings driven by trading flow, valuation anxiety, and insider-sale headlines that can reappear like ghosts at the meme-stock feast. Business Wire
Going into Monday, the key question isn’t whether BlueBird 6 happened—it did. The question is whether AST can turn that milestone into a steady drumbeat of follow-through: satellite commissioning updates, manufacturing cadence proof points, and credible steps toward service commercialization at scale. Business Wire
