AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Stock on Dec. 12, 2025: BlueBird 6 Launch Date Shifts, Analyst Forecasts Diverge, and the Direct-to-Device Race Intensifies

December 12, 2025 — AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) is back in the spotlight as investors weigh a pivotal near-term catalyst (the first “next-generation” BlueBird satellite launch) against the realities of execution risk, schedule slips, and a valuation debate that is splitting Wall Street.

Below is a comprehensive roundup of today’s (12.12.2025) key news, forecasts, and analyses impacting AST SpaceMobile stock—plus what traders and long-term investors are watching next.

ASTS stock price today: sharp volatility as the countdown continues

ASTS is trading with outsized volatility on December 12. At the latest available print, AST SpaceMobile shares were around $75.73, down roughly 10.6% on the day, after swinging between about $74.60 and $85.21 on elevated volume.

This type of range is not unusual for ASTS in late 2025: the stock has been one of the market’s most closely followed “space connectivity” plays, with price action reacting quickly to launch updates, spectrum headlines, telecom partnership news, and shifts in the broader “space stocks” theme.

The headline catalyst: BlueBird 6 launch—now a moving target

Target date vs. updated launch-window reports

AST SpaceMobile previously announced a target launch date of December 15, 2025 for BlueBird 6, describing it as the start of a multi-provider launch campaign aimed at scaling its constellation. ^[1]

However, as of this week, multiple space-industry trackers and trade coverage point to a schedule slip:

A trade outlet report says ISRO delayed the mission by about a week, from Dec. 15 to Dec. 20 (04:20 UTC). ^[2]
Launch tracking sites list Dec. 20, 2025 at 04:20 UTC as the planned T‑0. ^[3]
One launch schedule explicitly notes the mission was “Rescheduled for NET December 20 per new NOTAMs.” ^[4]

AST itself also reminds investors that exact orbital launch timing can change due to provider readiness, weather, and other factors outside the company’s control. ^[5]

Why it matters for the stock: BlueBird 6 has become a credibility checkpoint for the “scale-up story.” Any perceived delay tends to amplify the core bull/bear disagreement: is ASTS a pre-commercial leader about to inflect, or a high-expectation name still vulnerable to schedule and execution setbacks?

Why BlueBird 6 matters: a step-change in capability (and expectations)

BlueBird 6 is widely described as a major upgrade over AST’s earlier satellites:

Reporting highlights a phased array near ~2,400 square feet, described as ~3.5x larger than earlier satellites and designed for ~10x more data capacity. ^[6]
AST has positioned BlueBird 6 as part of its “next-generation” system and a key step toward broader service ambitions. ^[7]

Market coverage frames the launch as more than a technical milestone: it’s a test of whether AST can move from prototypes and early satellites toward a repeatable manufacturing-and-launch cadence that supports commercial rollout.

“Heaviest U.S. commercial payload” angle adds global attention

Indian media coverage today emphasizes the geopolitical and commercial significance of the mission, describing BlueBird‑6 as a ~6.5‑tonne satellite slated for launch by ISRO’s LVM3 from Sriharikota, highlighting India-U.S. commercial space cooperation. ^[8]

This matters for ASTS investors for two reasons:

Visibility: A high-profile international mission draws broader market attention (and sometimes speculative trading).
Narrative reinforcement: The company’s story depends on scaling a space-based cellular broadband network that partners with terrestrial carriers, and a flagship launch reinforces that storyline—if it goes smoothly.

Commercial timeline: partnerships point to 2026, but execution is the gate

Verizon: “cellular service from space” starting next year

One of AST’s biggest credibility boosts in 2025 has been blue-chip telecom alignment. AP reported that Verizon signed a deal with AST SpaceMobile to provide cellular service from space beginning next year, extending Verizon’s reach with satellite-enabled coverage. ^[9]

Vodafone: Europe-led constellation and a 2026 start for commercial operations

On the European front, Reuters reported that Vodafone and AST unveiled plans for a Europe-led satellite constellation, with an operational center expected in Germany and commercial operations slated to begin in 2026. Reuters also contrasted AST’s current satellite count with Starlink’s much larger fleet—highlighting the scale gap AST must close. ^[10]

Vodafone’s own announcement adds detail, saying the planned EU constellation will include a “command switch” for European oversight and security and that commercial launch is planned from 2026. ^[11]

Investor takeaway: The partnership list is increasingly “real,” but the timeline is still forward-looking—making each launch and manufacturing update disproportionately important to the stock.

Manufacturing scale-up becomes part of the investment thesis

Local reporting in Texas said AST SpaceMobile has announced plans to expand manufacturing with new facilities, including a new Midland site intended to manufacture next-generation BlueBird satellites, alongside a new Florida location and an existing Maryland facility. The same report notes AST has more than doubled its workforce in the past six months to over 1,800 employees, with many based in West Texas. ^[12]

That capacity build-out supports the bullish view that AST is shifting from R&D to scaled deployment—though skeptics argue expanded fixed costs only heighten the pressure to execute.

Spectrum and regulation: Ligado’s FCC filing puts L-band back in play

A key regulatory/spectrum storyline this week: Ligado Networks says it filed an application with the FCC to modify its L‑Band satellite license to add an MSS system (“SkyTerra Next”) that would be hosted on AST SpaceMobile’s LEO constellation—with the stated goal of enabling space-based mobile broadband services in the U.S. ^[13]

Industry coverage frames the filing as part of a broader push to create competition beyond SpaceX’s growing direct-to-device footprint, noting that major telecom players want alternatives in the D2D market. ^[14]

Another policy-focused outlet describes the effort as repurposing 40+ MHz of L‑band spectrum for low‑Earth‑orbit broadband and notes the proposed system would use satellites built by AST to reach smartphones across the U.S. ^[15]

Why this matters for ASTS stock: Spectrum is strategic in D2D. Any regulatory path that expands usable spectrum—or validates AST as a hosting platform for new payloads—can shift long-term revenue expectations. But FCC processes can be slow, contested, and unpredictable.

Today’s market backdrop: SpaceX IPO chatter lifts “space stocks”

ASTS is also trading amid a broader “space sector” wave.

Business Insider reports that renewed talk of a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026 has boosted enthusiasm across publicly traded space names, noting AST SpaceMobile among the top-performing “space stocks” in the past five days in that burst of speculation. ^[16]

This kind of thematic rally can add fuel to ASTS—while also increasing the risk of sharp pullbacks when narratives cool or catalysts slip.

Forecasts and analyst targets: wide dispersion (and why it’s important)

Consensus targets imply very different “fair values”

As of December 12, forecasts and target prices for ASTS remain unusually spread out:

MarketBeat shows a consensus target around $45.66 with an average rating described as Hold. ^[17]
StockAnalysis lists an average target around $59.37 with a Buy consensus, with a low of $30 and a high of $95. ^[18]
Benzinga’s analyst-rating page notes a recent target reference of $45.60 (example: Scotiabank on Nov. 25, 2025) and tracks a larger set of analyst actions. ^[19]

Recent rating changes still echo in the stock

MarketBeat’s compilation of analyst actions includes:

Barclays moving ASTS to underweight with a $60 target (dated Oct. 17), and
Other changes such as Scotiabank’s late‑November shift to sector perform with a $45.60 target. ^[20]

What the dispersion signals: Analysts are not simply disagreeing on near-term price action—they’re disagreeing on the probability-weighted outcome of a complex scale-up (launch cadence, regulatory outcomes, carrier commercialization, and competitive intensity).

“Two narratives” dominate today’s ASTS debate: bullish moat vs. bearish execution risk

Bullish framing: a generational connectivity platform—if it scales

A December 12 investor note referenced by Advanced Television says one AST investor sees AST’s progress as a shift toward scaled deployment and commercialization—citing manufacturing acceleration, spectrum acquisitions, partnerships, and regulatory progress as positioning for an initial 2026 rollout. ^[21]

Bearish framing: delays + unclear revenue timing + expensive valuation

A prominent December 12 Seeking Alpha analysis takes a sharply more cautious stance, arguing that AST still hasn’t launched production satellites enabling continuous service, that the stock’s 2025 surge is driven by financing and agreements, and that claimed contracted revenue commitments have uncertain timing and annualization—making execution and valuation major risks. ^[22]

Bottom line: Both sides agree the upside is enormous if AST delivers. The disagreement is over timelines, probability, and what’s already priced into ASTS.

Fundamentals check: still early revenues, losses, and big expectations

AST’s latest reported quarter remains a reminder that commercialization is still ahead:

MarketBeat summarizes AST’s Q3 report as a loss of ($0.45) EPS on $14.74 million revenue, below consensus expectations. ^[23]
Barron’s similarly noted the earnings miss and highlighted that Wall Street expects materially higher sales in 2026—while also discussing how the stock’s run has pushed valuation metrics higher. ^[24]

This is why the next successful deployment milestones matter so much: ASTS is trading less on trailing financials and more on whether the company is on track to “turn on” a commercial constellation.

Sentiment signals: short interest and options pricing remain notable

ASTS also remains a high-sentiment battleground name:

MarketBeat lists short interest around 36.62 million shares (about 14.44% of float) with ~3.8 days to cover (as of its cited settlement date). ^[25]
Barchart commentary on ASTS options points to elevated uncertainty priced into contracts—typical ahead of binary events such as launch windows and major regulatory headlines. ^[26]

These factors can amplify moves in both directions, especially when a catalyst headline hits outside regular market hours.

Insider activity: buys, planned sales, and 10b5‑1 selling all in the mix

Recent filings and trade reports show a mix of insider signals:

A director purchase was reported (e.g., Keith R. Larson buying shares around $72.71). ^[27]
TradingView/Refinitiv reported that COO Shanti B. Gupta filed a Form 144 proposing to sell 10,000 shares (approximate date of sale listed as 12/10/25). ^[28]
TradingView also reported the CTO Huiwen Yao sold 40,000 shares on Dec. 5, 2025, and that the sale was under a Rule 10b5‑1 plan adopted earlier in 2025. ^[29]

Separately, MarketBeat’s institutional/insider roundup notes meaningful insider selling over a recent 90‑day window, underscoring that investors should read filings carefully (planned sales, tax withholding, and diversification can all be factors). ^[30]

What matters next for AST SpaceMobile stock: a practical checklist

Here are the near-term items most likely to move ASTS in the coming days and weeks:

BlueBird 6 launch confirmation and execution — especially whether the mission proceeds near the currently tracked window (and how markets react to any further slip). ^[31]
Post-launch deployment updates — confirmation of satellite health, deployment milestones, and performance signals. ^[32]
Manufacturing cadence evidence — proof that facility expansion and workforce growth translate into consistent satellite output. ^[33]
Carrier commercialization milestones for 2026 — progress from Verizon/Vodafone-related announcements into operational timelines and market-by-market rollout specifics. ^[34]
FCC and spectrum developments — especially outcomes tied to Ligado’s application and broader D2D competitive dynamics. ^[35]