AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) has become one of 2025’s most explosive – and controversial – space stocks. As of December 9, 2025, shares are trading around $73–74, up well over 200% year‑to‑date, yet still well below their recent 12‑month high above $100. [1]
At the same time, new insider sales, a looming BlueBird 6 launch on December 15, and sharply divided analyst opinions are turning ASTS into a battleground between growth optimists and valuation skeptics.
Below is a structured look at everything investors following AST SpaceMobile need to know today, December 9, 2025, including the latest news, forecasts and analysis.
Key takeaways
- ASTS is extremely volatile: the stock dropped about 30% in November, then surged more than 30% in early December as traders piled in ahead of the BlueBird 6 satellite launch. [2]
- Insiders have been selling: both the CTO and Chief Accounting Officer sold shares in early December at prices around $73–74, drawing attention to near‑term valuation. [3]
- Q3 2025 results missed expectations, but revenue jumped more than 10× year‑over‑year and the company now claims over $1 billion in contracted revenue commitments and about $3.2 billion in liquidity. [4]
- BlueBird 6, scheduled to launch on December 15 from India, will carry the largest commercial phased array ever flown in low Earth orbit, with roughly 10× the data capacity of prior satellites. [5]
- Wall Street is cautious: the average analyst price target around $46 sits well below today’s share price, and the consensus rating is only “Hold”, even as some research and DCF models argue the stock is deeply undervalued. [6]
ASTS stock today: still hot, still high‑risk
As of the latest trade on December 9, 2025, AST SpaceMobile shares are changing hands around $73.37, down less than 1% on the day and roughly flat versus Monday’s close of $74. [7]
Key metrics that define just how speculative ASTS has become:
- Market cap: about $27.2 billion
- 12‑month range: from $17.50 to $102.79
- Valuation: negative earnings (P/E about ‑60), trading at roughly 50× projected 2027 EBITDA versus ~12× at the start of the year, according to Barron’s. [8]
- Volatility: beta around 2.8, reflecting strong swings versus the broader market. [9]
Despite a 30% drawdown in November, ASTS has rallied sharply in December, supported by:
- Speculation around BlueBird 6
- A widely reported Wall Street Journal story about Sam Altman’s interest in space‑related assets that sent space stocks spiking, with ASTS among the biggest movers. [10]
- Retail enthusiasm on Reddit and X, where sentiment has turned “remarkably bullish,” as one report put it. [11]
In other words: ASTS today trades like a high‑beta call option on whether AST SpaceMobile can successfully stand up a global satellite‑to‑smartphone network over the next 24–36 months.
The technology and BlueBird 6: why December 15 matters so much
AST SpaceMobile aims to build the first space‑based cellular broadband network that talks directly to ordinary, unmodified mobile phones, using large phased‑array satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). [12]
BlueBird 1–5: proof‑of‑concept
The company’s first‑generation BlueBird 1–5 satellites, launched in 2024, have already demonstrated:
- Two‑way broadband links directly to standard smartphones outside normal coverage
- The first space‑to‑phone video calls in Europe, the U.S. and Japan
- Early VoLTE calls integrated with AT&T and Verizon core networks
- Initial government / defence use‑cases in 2025 [13]
These achievements have helped AST secure big‑name partners, including AT&T and Verizon in the U.S., Vodafone in Europe, and Saudi Arabia’s stc Group in the Middle East. [14]
Time magazine even named AST’s BlueBird system one of the “Best Inventions of 2025”, highlighting planned peak speeds up to roughly 120 Mbps to standard devices and ambitions for intermittent U.S. coverage by the end of 2025 and global reach by 2026. [15]
BlueBird 6: first of the next generation
BlueBird 6 is the first satellite of AST’s next‑generation Block 2 platform and is scheduled to launch on December 15, 2025, on India’s LVM3 rocket from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre. [16]
According to AST’s November 21 press release, BlueBird 6 will feature: [17]
- A phased array of nearly 2,400 square feet – about 3.5× larger than the arrays on BlueBirds 1–5
- Roughly 10× the data capacity, enabling far more simultaneous connections
- Construction at AST’s expanded Midland, Texas facilities
This launch is also meant to kick off a rapid deployment phase:
- AST plans five orbital launches by the end of Q1 2026,
- and aims for 45–60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026,
- enabling continuous coverage across the U.S. and select international markets. [18]
For investors, BlueBird 6 is more than a test flight – it’s a credibility event. Several recent research notes and articles explicitly frame December 15 as a line‑in‑the‑sand date for ASTS shareholders. [19]
Q3 2025 results: small revenue, big pipeline
The numbers
On November 10, 2025, AST SpaceMobile reported Q3 2025 results that missed Wall Street expectations: [20]
- Revenue: about $14.7 million, versus consensus near $19–22 million
- EPS:‑$0.45 per share, compared with expectations around ‑$0.20
- Still deeply loss‑making, with negative net margin and return on equity
Yet, year‑over‑year growth was dramatic:
- Q3 2024 revenue was roughly $1.1 million
- Loss per share narrowed from ‑$1.10 in the year‑ago quarter
Despite the miss, the stock barely budged after hours, and subsequent coverage described the reaction as ASTS “riding out” the earnings disappointment as investors focused on the pipeline and launch schedule. [21]
$1+ billion in contracted revenue commitments
Much of the bullish narrative now hinges on AST’s contracted future revenue rather than today’s small sales base. In its Q3 update and follow‑up commentary, the company disclosed: [22]
- Over $1 billion in aggregate contracted revenue commitments from mobile operator partners
- $3.2 billion in liquidity, combining cash, restricted cash and availability under its ATM facility
These commitments are tied to long‑term deals with operators such as AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, stc, and others, who plan to use AST’s network to fill rural coverage gaps and support emergency and government services. [23]
However, it’s important to note that this $1+ billion figure represents future service commitments, not current revenue; the commercial rollout still depends on successful satellite deployment, regulatory approvals and integration work.
December 9, 2025 news: insider selling and options market anxiety
Large insider sales near the highs
Two insider transactions disclosed in early December are drawing scrutiny: [24]
- CTO Huiwen Yao
- Sold 40,000 shares on December 5 at an average price of $73.52, totaling about $2.94 million.
- This reduced his stake by roughly 89%, leaving him with only 4,750 shares.
- Chief Accounting Officer Maya Bernal
- Sold 6,000 shares on the same date at about $73.76, for roughly $442,560.
- She still holds over 122,000 shares after the sale.
Both sales were reported today in fresh coverage, and come on top of earlier insider selling by the CTO in September at much lower prices around $40.58. [25]
Insider selling does not automatically mean insiders are bearish – it can reflect diversification or personal liquidity needs – but the size and timing of these sales, right as ASTS trades at a multi‑hundred‑percent gain for 2025, will inevitably feed valuation concerns.
Options market: huge volatility priced in
A new analysis published today on Barchart highlights just how nervous derivatives traders have become around ASTS: [26]
- Most of the largest option trades show implied volatility above 100% on both calls and puts.
- That suggests “smart money” is paying up for hedges in either direction, rather than taking one‑sided bets.
- Based on a proprietary statistical model, the author estimates a 10‑week forward price cluster between roughly $72 and $81, with a central tendency in the mid‑$70s – close to where the stock trades now.
The article’s preferred trade idea is a $70/$80 bull call spread expiring in January 2026, essentially betting on moderate upside but not a sustained move far above $80.
The takeaway: options traders expect big moves, but the distribution of likely outcomes suggested by this model is narrower than the hype might imply, at least over the next couple of months.
Expanding factories and workforce: AST goes big on U.S. manufacturing
Alongside its orbital ambitions, AST has been scaling its physical footprint on the ground.
Recent press releases and local coverage describe: [27]
- Two new manufacturing sites in Texas and Florida, taking the total manufacturing footprint to about 500,000 square feet.
- A more than 100% increase in U.S. headcount over the last six months, to 1,800+ employees, most based in West Texas.
- A new Midland, Texas plant focused on next‑generation BlueBird production, working in concert with other facilities.
AST presents this build‑out as evidence that it is insourcing key manufacturing processes and strengthening supply chain resilience, which could be a strategic differentiator versus competitors who rely more heavily on third‑party manufacturers.
Of course, the flip side is that such expansion consumes capital and raises the bar for how much revenue the company must ultimately generate to justify its current valuation.
Analyst views and valuation: split between euphoria and caution
Wall Street consensus: “Hold” and below‑market targets
According to MarketBeat’s summary of broker research: [28]
- ASTS currently carries an average rating of “Hold”.
- The consensus price target sits near $45–46, well below today’s ~$73 share price.
- At least three firms rate the stock “Sell”, with others at “Hold” and a minority at “Buy”.
- Several banks have cut ratings or price targets in recent months as the share price outran their models.
A new piece of analysis published today notes that even after factoring in AST’s $1+ billion contracted revenue and strong liquidity, the stock trades at a rich premium to its de‑risking, leading the author to keep it at “Hold”. [29]
Bullish research: upside to $87 and beyond
Other analysts and independent researchers remain highly optimistic:
- A December 9 Seeking Alpha article rates ASTS a “Buy” with a $87 price target, suggesting roughly 18% upside from current levels and pointing to the company’s unique position in direct‑to‑device satellite connectivity. [30]
- A Simply Wall St DCF model estimates an intrinsic value around $194 per share, implying the stock trades at roughly a 60% discount to their long‑term cash flow projections even after this year’s huge rally. [31]
Those bullish models generally assume:
- AST reaches its satellite deployment targets on time,
- contracted revenue converts smoothly into cash, and
- the company scales toward hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue by 2026–2027, in line with FactSet consensus figures cited by Barron’s. [32]
Quant and AI‑driven forecasts: more muted
Algorithmic and technical‑analysis‑based sites are more cautious:
- Intellectia’s technical dashboard sees ASTS in an overall uptrend, but with 3 buy and 4 sell signals, and labels the mid‑term outlook as “Neutral”. [33]
- Its 2026 price forecasts show most monthly “average” prices well below today’s level, implying negative potential ROI in many scenarios, though those models are purely statistical and don’t “understand” AST’s specific business. [34]
- The same site’s near‑term similarity analysis predicts only a ~0.2% move lower over the next month, effectively calling for a flat period around the current price. [35]
Taken together, the fundamental bulls and quant/technical models paint very different pictures: one sees enormous upside if AST executes, the other sees a stock already priced for perfection with elevated downside risk.
Competitive and strategic backdrop: Vodafone JV and European ambitions
While AST is heavily focused on the U.S. market via AT&T and Verizon, it’s also moving aggressively in Europe.
In early November, Vodafone and AST SpaceMobile announced plans for a Europe‑led satellite constellation for direct‑to‑smartphone connectivity, with: [36]
- A new operations centre in Germany
- Target markets spanning 21 EU countries that have expressed early interest
- A design emphasizing sovereign control and security over European satellite communications
The JV is explicitly pitched as an answer to SpaceX’s Starlink, which has been expanding direct‑to‑cell services and acquiring spectrum rights in multiple regions. [37]
If AST and Vodafone can deliver a credible alternative, it would greatly strengthen the long‑term network effects around AST’s technology – but again, the constellation must actually be launched and operated successfully for that promise to be realized.
Bull vs bear case for ASTS as of December 9, 2025
The bull case
Supporters of ASTS typically focus on:
- Huge addressable market
- Billions of mobile subscribers still experience coverage gaps; AST wants to sell satellite coverage as a wholesale layer to carriers globally. [38]
- Strong partner ecosystem
- Long‑term agreements or partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, stc and others, plus tower and cloud partners, provide a built‑in customer base. [39]
- $1+ billion in contracted revenue, $3.2 billion liquidity
- Management argues this locks in early demand and fully funds the planned constellation build‑out. [40]
- Proven technical milestones
- Live smartphone video calls and VoLTE made via BlueBird 1–5, and recognition in Time’s Best Inventions list, show the underlying radio and network technology can work at scale. [41]
- Optionality if the model succeeds
- If AST hits revenue forecasts (e.g., revenue ramping from about $56 million expected in 2025 to around $267 million in 2026 and beyond), the current valuation may prove conservative in hindsight, particularly if EBITDA grows toward the $500 million level implied by 2027 estimates. [42]
The bear case
Skeptics, on the other hand, emphasize:
- Valuation far ahead of fundamentals
- Just $14.7 million in quarterly revenue, yet a $27+ billion market cap and a multiple of about 50× 2027E EBITDA; many analysts see the stock as priced well beyond its current de‑risking. [43]
- Execution and regulatory risk
- AST must launch dozens of large satellites, secure spectrum and regulatory approvals in multiple jurisdictions, and integrate with carriers’ networks – all while competitors (Starlink, Apple/Qualcomm satellite features, other D2D players) are also moving quickly. [44]
- Extreme volatility
- A 30% drop in November followed by a 30%+ rebound in early December underscores how quickly sentiment can swing; those moves have been amplified by retail trading and social‑media‑driven speculation. [45]
- Insider selling at elevated prices
- Significant December sales by the CTO and CAO at current levels make some investors question whether insiders view the recent rally as an opportunity to cash out. [46]
- Diverging models and forecasts
- While some fundamental models see over 60% upside, quant and AI‑driven forecasts cluster around flat or negative returns from today’s price over the next year or so. [47]
What to watch next
For investors following ASTS around December 9, 2025, several near‑term catalysts stand out:
- December 15, 2025 – BlueBird 6 launch
- Successful deployment and early performance data will heavily influence sentiment. Any delay or malfunction would likely hit the stock hard. [48]
- Subsequent launch cadence through Q1 2026
- AST has promised launches every one to two months to get to 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026. Investors will be watching closely to see if that schedule holds. [49]
- Commercial service milestones
- Clarity on when intermittent and then continuous service becomes available in the U.S., Europe and selected markets – and at what pricing – will help the market gauge how quickly the $1+ billion in commitments translates into recognized revenue. [50]
- Further insider activity and analyst revisions
- Additional insider sales or purchases, as well as changes to Wall Street ratings and price targets after the launch, could recalibrate the risk/reward profile in either direction. [51]
- Macro & sector sentiment
- ASTS has been trading in sympathy with broader space‑communications and speculative tech names. Shifts in risk appetite, interest‑rate expectations or regulation around spectrum and satellite operations could feed into its volatility. [52]
Bottom line
As of December 9, 2025, AST SpaceMobile sits at the intersection of transformational technology and speculative valuation:
- If the company executes on its launch plan, turns its $1+ billion of contracted revenue into cash, and proves that large operators will lean on its network at scale, today’s price could represent an early entry into a category‑defining infrastructure play.
- If launches slip, technology underperforms, regulation bites or the funding math stops working, the stock’s current valuation leaves plenty of room on the downside.
For now, ASTS remains a name best suited to investors who fully understand high‑risk growth stocks, can tolerate sharp swings, and are prepared for a bumpy ride around the December 15 BlueBird 6 launch and beyond.
References
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