AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) is making headlines on Wednesday, December 24, 2025 after confirming the successful orbital launch of “BlueBird 6,” its first next‑generation satellite designed to deliver space-based 4G/5G cellular broadband directly to standard, unmodified smartphones. [1]
Yet despite the milestone, ASTS stock has been whipsawing in a holiday-shortened U.S. trading session—a reminder that for high‑beta “future-network” names, major technical wins don’t always translate into a straight-line move in the share price. [2]
Below is a comprehensive roundup of the Dec. 24, 2025 news flow, the key catalysts and risks being debated, and what analysts’ forecasts are signaling right now.
ASTS stock price action on Dec. 24, 2025: a “sell-the-news” feel in a shortened session
U.S. markets are operating on an early-close schedule (1:00 p.m. ET) for Christmas Eve, which often brings thinner liquidity and sharper intraday swings. [3]
In AST SpaceMobile’s case, the swings have been pronounced. Intraday data shows ASTS opened well above the prior close and then pulled back sharply, with a wide day range and elevated volume. [4]
Schaeffer’s Research summed up the day’s tone: ASTS was down mid-session even after the launch success, after trading as high as the low-$90s early in the session and with the stock still up roughly triple-digits year-to-date. [5]
What this suggests: many traders appear to be locking in profits after a powerful run, while others are repositioning ahead of the next phase—commissioning the satellite, proving throughput at scale, and accelerating launches into 2026. [6]
The headline catalyst: BlueBird 6 successfully reaches orbit
What happened
AST SpaceMobile says BlueBird 6 launched at about 10:25 p.m. ET on Dec. 23 from Satish Dhawan Space Centre (Sriharikota, India), and the company is positioning it as the start of its “scaled deployment” phase. [7]
Why the satellite matters (the specs investors are focused on)
AST describes BlueBird 6 as a step-change in capability:
- ~2,400 square feet of phased-array communications area (the company says it is the largest commercial communications array deployed in low Earth orbit) [8]
- “Over three times” the size and ~10x the capacity of AST’s previously launched satellites [9]
- Designed to enable peak data rates up to ~120 Mbps directly to unmodified mobile devices, supporting voice, data, and video applications [10]
In parallel, Indian media emphasized the significance for ISRO’s commercial launch cadence, describing the mission as a milestone for India’s heavy-lift rocket operations and cross-border commercial collaboration with AST SpaceMobile. [11]
The big forward-looking claim: 45–60 satellites by end of 2026
The most important number repeated across Dec. 24 coverage is AST’s target of launching 45–60 satellites by the end of 2026, with launches planned every one or two months on average. [12]
AST’s own materials also point to an industrial scale-up narrative—highlighting large production footprints and the intent to keep cadence high through 2025–2026. [13]
Why investors care: ASTS is not being priced like a typical early-revenue aerospace company. Much of the valuation debate hinges on whether the company can (1) manufacture and launch at pace, (2) commission each satellite successfully, and (3) begin converting carrier partnerships into recurring service revenue as coverage expands.
Commercial rollout outlook: early 2026 activations and major carrier partners
From the company’s earlier SEC-reported business update (Nov. 10, 2025), AST reported:
- Over $1 billion in “aggregate contracted revenue commitments” [14]
- A partner footprint of 50+ mobile network operator partners representing nearly 3 billion subscribers globally [15]
- Initial activation plans that included nationwide intermittent service across the continental United States, and planned activations in Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom in early 2026 [16]
On Dec. 24, the launch coverage again highlighted AST’s relationships with major telecom names, including AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone (among others), as central to the investment narrative. [17]
Financial reality check: high ambition, early-stage revenues, and big funding moves
Investors weighing ASTS stock today are balancing technical progress against the financial profile typical of “buildout mode” network infrastructure plays.
From AST’s SEC-filed materials for Q3 2025, the company reported:
- GAAP revenue of $14.7 million in Q3 2025 (driven by government milestones and gateway deliveries) [18]
- Reiterated second-half 2025 revenue guidance of $50.0–$75.0 million [19]
- $3.2 billion in “combined cash and liquidity” on a pro forma basis (including availability under its ATM facility) [20]
- A $1.15 billion gross proceeds 10-year convertible notes raise with a 2.00% coupon and an effective conversion price of $96.30 per share [21]
This mix—meaningful liquidity plus heavy execution spending—helps explain why ASTS can rally hard on milestones and sell off quickly on “valuation vs. timeline” worries.
Regulation and licensing: the “can they operate at scale?” gate
Beyond launches and manufacturing, AST’s roadmap is also conditioned on regulatory permissions.
In a September 2025 Form 8‑K, AST disclosed that 20 satellites had been approved to launch by the FCC, subject to certain conditions. [22]
That kind of disclosure matters to the stock because constellation scale and service continuity ultimately depend on ongoing approvals and compliance, not just the engineering.
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 24, 2025: price targets are all over the map
A notable feature of the ASTS story today is that consensus targets differ significantly across data providers, partly due to different analyst universes and update methodologies.
MarketBeat (updated Dec. 24): “Hold,” with targets well below the current price
MarketBeat shows:
- Consensus rating: Hold (based on 11 analyst ratings)
- Average 12-month price target: $45.66 (with a $60 high and $30 low) [23]
MarketBeat also lists a string of 2025 rating actions (downgrades and trims) that reflect the “valuation vs. execution risk” pushback from parts of Wall Street. [24]
StockAnalysis: “Buy,” with a higher—but still below-market—average target
StockAnalysis shows:
- Consensus rating: Buy
- Price target: $59.37 (from 9 analysts) [25]
It also reflects that some firms issued much higher targets in late 2025 (for example, targets stepping up into the $80–$90+ range in certain notes), contributing to the spread. [26]
Schaeffer’s: consensus target cited at $73.23, but still framed as cautious
Schaeffer’s Research cited a 12-month consensus target price of $73.23 and noted that most ratings in their referenced set were “hold.” [27]
How to interpret the disagreement
When you see targets ranging from the mid‑$40s to the low‑$70s (and individual targets higher), it usually signals:
- The company is hard to model (commercial service scale is still ahead)
- The stock is trading on milestones and narrative, not mature cash flows
- Analysts disagree on the pace of launches, adoption, pricing, and capex needs
“Positioning and sentiment” indicators lighting up today: options, short interest, and insider headlines
Options activity spikes
Schaeffer’s reported that options volume was running about six times the intraday average, with calls leading puts and the most active contract tied to a near-dated call strike. [28]
Short interest remains meaningful
Schaeffer’s also highlighted 36.62 million shares sold short, pegged at ~16% of float in its snapshot. [29]
Other market data pages show similar magnitude with slightly different float math (a common discrepancy), including short interest of 36.62M and short float in the mid‑teens. [30]
Insider/holder selling remains part of the narrative
Earlier in December, a Refinitiv/Reuters item reported that American Tower filed a Form 144 proposing to sell 2,288,621 shares (with an “approximate date of sale” listed as Dec. 9, 2025). [31]
Meanwhile, MarketBeat’s data-driven reporting noted insider selling volume in the prior quarter and highlighted insider ownership levels—details that continue to circulate in market commentary as traders debate supply/overhang dynamics. [32]
The bull case vs. bear case for AST SpaceMobile stock right now
Why bulls are excited
- BlueBird 6 is a major proof point: a much larger array and higher claimed throughput moves AST closer to real service-scale capability. [33]
- A defined scale target for 2026 (45–60 satellites) gives the market a measurable execution roadmap. [34]
- Carrier relationships and global partner count: AST continues to emphasize broad telecom participation and future market activations. [35]
- Liquidity runway: the company has highlighted substantial pro forma liquidity, which matters for a capital-intensive constellation build. [36]
What skeptics focus on
- Valuation vs. current revenue: even with improving revenue, the financial profile is still early-stage relative to market expectations. [37]
- Execution risk: high launch cadence, commissioning complexity, and manufacturing scale-ups are hard—even for experienced aerospace operators. [38]
- Regulatory conditions: approvals exist, but ongoing compliance and permissions remain a gating factor for scaling service. [39]
- Street caution: several consensus views still cluster around “Hold,” with price targets below the current trading range in multiple datasets. [40]
What to watch next after Dec. 24’s launch-driven volatility
If you’re following AST SpaceMobile stock into year-end and early 2026, the next “catalyst checkpoints” are likely to include:
- On-orbit deployment and commissioning updates for BlueBird 6 (and proof of performance consistent with the company’s throughput claims) [41]
- Next launches (BlueBird 7 and beyond) as AST pushes to maintain cadence [42]
- Network integration milestones with telecom partners in targeted early-2026 markets [43]
- Any new regulatory disclosures tied to constellation scale or operating conditions [44]
- Updated analyst notes/targets as firms refresh models following real-world satellite performance data [45]
Disclosure: This article is for informational and news reporting purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All forward-looking plans discussed above are subject to execution, technical, regulatory, and market risks. [46]
References
1. www.businesswire.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 5. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 6. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 12. www.businesswire.com, 13. ast-science.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 28. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 29. www.schaeffersresearch.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.tradingview.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.businesswire.com, 34. www.businesswire.com, 35. www.businesswire.com, 36. www.sec.gov, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. www.businesswire.com, 39. www.sec.gov, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.businesswire.com, 42. ast-science.com, 43. www.sec.gov, 44. www.sec.gov, 45. www.marketbeat.com, 46. www.businesswire.com
