As of 3:16 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, the U.S. stock market is still in session — and AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) is having one of those “space-stock” days where the price action looks less like a calm stroll and more like re-entry plasma.
ASTS shares are trading at $71.46, down 8.44% on the day, after moving between $71.31 and $79.39. Volume is elevated at roughly 15.7 million shares with under an hour left before the closing bell.
Meanwhile, the broader market is relatively steady: the S&P 500 proxy SPY is essentially flat, the tech-heavy QQQ is modestly higher, and small-caps (IWM) are down — a backdrop that can amplify the swings in higher-beta, headline-driven names like ASTS.
So what’s driving today’s pullback, and what should investors be watching into the close and heading into the next session?
Why ASTS Stock Is Down Today: “Milestone Met” Meets “Now Prove It”
The short version: AST just hit a major technical milestone — the successful orbital launch of BlueBird 6 — and the stock is reacting like investors are trying to decide whether this is the beginning of an execution era… or a classic “sell-the-news” moment after a huge run.
On December 23, AST SpaceMobile announced the successful orbital launch of BlueBird 6, calling it the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in low Earth orbit, with a deployed array area of nearly 2,400 square feet. The company says the satellite is designed to enable peak data rates up to 120 Mbps directly to standard, unmodified mobile devices, supporting voice, data, and video applications from space. [1]
Investor’s Business Daily described the immediate market reaction as highly volatile, noting the stock surged intraday after the launch news before reversing. [2]
Seeking Alpha’s news coverage framed the post-launch dip as at least partly tied to valuation and execution concerns after a big move in the shares. [3]
Put differently: the launch was a “yes” to engineering and operations, but the market is still wrestling with the harder questions — timeline, regulatory permissions, service activation, and what demand/pricing ultimately look like.
The BlueBird 6 Launch: What Happened and Why It Matters
BlueBird 6 didn’t just leave the pad — it’s also a “statement satellite” in terms of size and mission profile.
Space.com reports that India’s LVM3 rocket launched BlueBird 6 on December 23 at 10:25 p.m. EST, with successful deployment about 15.5 minutes later at roughly 521 km (324 miles) altitude. The report also notes BlueBird 6’s approximate mass (6,100 kg) and highlights it as the heaviest payload the LVM3 has delivered to orbit. [4]
AST’s own release emphasizes that BlueBird 6 is more than three times the size and has 10x the capacity compared with its earlier satellites currently in orbit — positioning it as a bridge from demonstrations toward scaled service. [5]
CEO Abel Avellan called the launch “a breakthrough moment,” saying it marks the “transition to scaled deployment” and strengthens the path to delivering space-based cellular broadband directly to everyday smartphones. [6]
That’s the bull case in one paragraph: bigger satellite, higher capacity, real-world smartphone connectivity — and momentum toward a commercial constellation.
Launch Cadence and 2026 Scale: What AST Is Guiding
Investors don’t price “one satellite.” They price the factory + launch cadence + regulatory runway that turns one satellite into a network.
In AST’s Q3 2025 Business Update (dated November 10, 2025), the company laid out several key operational and financial claims, including:
- Over $3.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and liquidity (as of Sept. 30, 2025, pro forma for listed items) [7]
- Over $1.0 billion in aggregate contracted revenue commitments from partners [8]
- Reiterated second-half 2025 revenue guidance of $50 million to $75 million and reported GAAP revenue of $14.7 million in Q3 2025, driven by U.S. government milestones and gateway deliveries [9]
- A deployment ambition of 45–60 satellites by end of 2026, with launches “every one to two months on average” [10]
- “Initial activation” plans including nationwide intermittent service across the continental U.S., with potential activations in Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the U.K. in early 2026 [11]
That’s a lot of “if we execute” packed into a small number of quarters — which helps explain why ASTS can rip higher on good news and drop hard on any hint of delays, dilution, or regulatory friction.
Partnerships: Verizon Deal Puts 2026 on the Calendar
A major pillar of AST’s narrative is that it isn’t building a consumer brand from scratch — it’s building infrastructure that plugs into existing telecom giants.
In October, Verizon announced a partnership with AST SpaceMobile to provide space-based cellular services beginning in 2026. The AP report explains the service would extend Verizon’s coverage using 850 MHz low-band spectrum in remote areas, with AST’s network using a mix of AST spectrum and partner spectrum globally. [12]
Investopedia’s coverage included direct executive commentary. Avellan said the deal extends Verizon’s 850 MHz reach, while Verizon executive Srini Kalapala framed the partnership as creating a “new paradigm of connectivity.” [13]
For investors, this matters because it turns “someday” into a visible commercialization window — while also raising the stakes on AST delivering reliable performance and regulatory clearance on schedule.
Regulation: The FCC Is a Key Character in the ASTS Story
If rockets are the hardware bottleneck, the FCC is one of the big permission bottlenecks.
The testing phase: Special Temporary Authority (STA)
Mobile World Live reported that the FCC granted AST SpaceMobile a Special Temporary Authority (STA) to test satellite broadband in the U.S., including satellite-to-device voice, data, and video. Importantly, the STA allowed AST to use Verizon and AT&T’s 850 MHz spectrum in combination with AST’s LEO satellites — a key technical detail because low-band spectrum is compatible with standard smartphones. [14]
The same report quotes analyst Tim Farrar (TMF Associates) making a crucial point: temporary testing approval was expected, but AST still needs a full application compliant with the FCC’s Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) rules before the agency would consider permission to launch additional satellites for broader service. [15]
The scaling phase: SCS framework, leases, and waivers
A September 2025 FCC document (Public Notice / DA 25-815) discusses AST’s request for authority to provide SCS across multiple frequency bands and references lease arrangements involving AT&T and Verizon, plus an arrangement involving FirstNet (Band 14) — while also noting that waivers and public comment processes are part of the path. [16]
This is the part of the story that’s boring until it isn’t: a single regulatory snag can shift timelines, economics, and competitive positioning.
Additional regulatory/commercial threads: Ligado
Fierce Network reported in December that Ligado is seeking FCC approval to modify its L-band satellite license so it can pursue a partnership with AST SpaceMobile, explicitly positioning the argument around market competition in direct-to-device/direct-to-cell services. [17]
Manufacturing Expansion: AST Is Building a “Satellite Factory,” Not a Science Fair Project
AST’s scale ambitions require industrial throughput, not just clever prototypes.
A local Texas report said AST SpaceMobile planned expansion with two new facilities (Midland, Texas and Homestead, Florida), with Midland focused on producing next-generation BlueBird satellites. It also reported the company had more than doubled its workforce to over 1,800 employees over the prior six months and planned continued launches through 2026. [18]
AST also stated in its BlueBird 6 press release that the satellite was assembled and tested at its Midland facilities and described a large manufacturing footprint and workforce. [19]
Short Interest and Market Mechanics: Why ASTS Can Swing Violently
ASTS trades like a story stock because it is a story stock — and the market structure can intensify the drama.
MarketBeat reports that as of December 15, 2025, AST SpaceMobile had 38.12 million shares sold short, representing about 15.03% of the public float, with a short interest ratio (days to cover) of 2.8. [20]
High short interest doesn’t automatically mean “short squeeze incoming,” but it does mean:
- sharp moves can be exaggerated by covering,
- rallies can accelerate quickly,
- and drops can deepen if momentum flips and liquidity thins (especially around holidays).
Insider Transactions: What the SEC Filings Show (and What They Don’t)
When a stock is this headline-sensitive, investors often scan insider filings for signals. The key is to read them like a scientist, not like a horoscope.
A Form 4 filed on the SEC’s EDGAR system shows AST SpaceMobile’s COO Shanti Gupta reported a transaction dated 12/10/2025 (the filing includes the standard checkbox language indicating a 10b5-1 plan framework). [21]
Separately, reporting on another filing indicates director Keith Larson disclosed a planned purchase under a 10b5-1 trading plan, with details distributed via Refinitiv/Reuters through TradingView. [22]
Also worth noting: an SEC filing index page shows a Form 144 filing dated December 9, 2025 connected to AST SpaceMobile and American Tower (as reporting entity), which is typically a notice related to a proposed sale of securities. [23]
Important reality check: insider sales can happen for many reasons (taxes, diversification, pre-set plans), and small purchases can be symbolic rather than financially material. Still, in a high-volatility name, these filings can influence sentiment at the margin.
Wall Street Forecasts: Targets Are All Over the Map (Here’s Why)
Because AST is still early in scaled commercialization, analysts’ valuation models depend heavily on assumptions about:
- satellite deployment timelines,
- regulatory approvals,
- pricing and usage rates,
- partner economics,
- capex, and dilution.
TipRanks currently shows:
- Average 12‑month price target: $72.39
- High: $95
- Low: $43
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy (based on a mix of buy/hold/sell ratings in the last 3 months) [24]
One nuance: TipRanks’ “downside/upside” percentage in its snapshot is calculated off a “last price” shown on its page. With ASTS now around the low $70s in today’s trading, the implied upside/downside can look very different minute-to-minute.
Other aggregators show different consensus numbers. For example, MarketBeat’s snapshot lists an average price target of $45.66 with a “Moderate Buy” consensus, highlighting just how wide the spread is depending on which analysts and update windows are included. [25]
How to interpret this as an investor: when you see targets ranging from the $40s to the $90s, that’s not “Wall Street is confused.” That’s “the future cash flows are highly uncertain,” which is exactly the kind of uncertainty that produces explosive rallies and abrupt drawdowns.
Competition: AST Isn’t Alone Up There
The direct-to-device satellite race has multiple heavyweight narratives colliding: SpaceX/Starlink expansion, Apple’s satellite-enabled features through partners, and broader telecom efforts to avoid a single-provider future.
Barron’s previously highlighted AST as a “hot satellite cellphone stock” competing in a field that includes SpaceX, Apple, and Amazon, while also emphasizing the financial and technological hurdles of scaling a constellation. [26]
And competition is moving fast: The Verge reported that EchoStar agreed to sell spectrum licenses to SpaceX in a deal tied to expanding Starlink’s direct-to-cell ambitions, underlining how quickly the competitive chessboard can change. [27]
What Investors Should Watch Into the Close and Before the Next Session
Because the market is open right now (late afternoon Friday in New York), the most relevant “next steps” are closing dynamics and weekend headline risk.
Into today’s 4:00 p.m. ET close
- Watch volume into the final hour. ASTS is already trading heavy volume today, and late-day flows can exaggerate moves.
- Track whether ASTS stabilizes near the day’s lows or rebounds — “down big, then bounce” vs “down big, then drift” often sets the tone for the next session.
- Keep perspective on the broader tape: the overall market is calm-to-mixed, so ASTS’s move is largely idiosyncratic.
If you’re holding or considering ASTS into the weekend
U.S. markets are closed Saturday and Sunday, so the next regular session after today is Monday, December 29, 2025.
The big “know before Monday” items for ASTS are:
- Commissioning updates on BlueBird 6 (deployment/unfurling milestones and early testing results are often price catalysts). [28]
- Regulatory headlines tied to SCS approvals, spectrum leasing, waivers, and related FCC proceedings — a core gating factor for scaled U.S. service. [29]
- Partner-related news flow (especially Verizon and other MNO integrations), since AST’s go-to-market strategy is fundamentally partnership-driven. [30]
- Sentiment triggers like short-interest chatter and insider-filing narratives that can move a high-volatility stock even when fundamentals haven’t changed. [31]
Bottom Line
AST SpaceMobile is delivering real milestones — BlueBird 6 is in orbit, and the company is explicitly pointing toward scaled deployment through 2026. [32]
But the market is reminding everyone (loudly) that the stock price is ultimately a referendum on execution: launch cadence, regulatory clearance, partner integration, and turning intermittent coverage into a service customers pay for — all while managing the financial realities of building a constellation in a very competitive “direct-to-device” landscape. [33]
References
1. www.businesswire.com, 2. www.investors.com, 3. seekingalpha.com, 4. www.space.com, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. irp.cdn-website.com, 8. irp.cdn-website.com, 9. irp.cdn-website.com, 10. irp.cdn-website.com, 11. irp.cdn-website.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.mobileworldlive.com, 15. www.mobileworldlive.com, 16. docs.fcc.gov, 17. www.fierce-network.com, 18. www.mrt.com, 19. www.businesswire.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.barrons.com, 27. www.theverge.com, 28. www.businesswire.com, 29. docs.fcc.gov, 30. apnews.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.businesswire.com, 33. www.mobileworldlive.com
