New York, January 28, 2026, 15:18 EST — During the regular session
- AST SpaceMobile shares jumped in afternoon trading following a choppy start to the week.
- Investors are focused on the upcoming satellite launch as the company advances its 2026 target for “direct-to-device” service.
- Execution risk remains a key concern, as skeptics doubt whether the launch pace can be maintained.
Shares of AST SpaceMobile climbed roughly 9% to $121.42 in afternoon trading Wednesday, after earlier fluctuating between $111.65 and $124.02. The move happened on robust volume, nearing 13 million shares traded.
The next few weeks are crucial for the company’s rollout plan. Investors want to see if AST can stick to its launch schedule and convert early satellite deployments into functioning coverage instead of just isolated demos.
AST is developing a “direct-to-device” network—satellite connections compatible with regular smartphones—designed to push mobile coverage past traditional cell tower limits. The concept sounds straightforward. The execution, far from it.
This week, AST reminded partners and shareholders of its near-term goals: a BlueBird 7 satellite launch slated for late February and a broad plan to roll out commercial service in 2026. The company noted these next-gen satellites feature a communications array covering roughly 2,400 square feet and can hit peak data speeds of 120 Mbps. Launches are expected every one to two months throughout 2026 as AST aims to deploy between 45 and 60 satellites by year-end. Scott Wisniewski, AST’s President and Chief Strategy Officer, described the BlueBird 7 launch as a key step forward in the push toward commercial service. 1
That timeline alone has drawn buyers back in—at least for the moment—after volatile day-to-day swings turned ASTS into as much a trader’s play as a telecom rollout story.
There’s a clear risk: timelines slip, launches cluster, or capacity proves tougher to lock down than investors anticipate. Satellite analyst Tim Farrar, president of TMF Associates, warned AST’s plans for early 2026 launches and hitting 45–60 satellites by year-end “are not happening.” He points out the numbers don’t add up if launches slow or carry fewer satellites than expected. Novaspace consultant Sumaiya Najarali described the target as “definitely ambitious,” noting the first quarter’s results will be key to gauging what 2026 holds. The competition is heating up too, with SpaceX’s Starlink ramping up direct-to-device services alongside U.S. carriers. 2
That uncertainty works both ways for investors. If AST meets the cadence, it bolsters the argument that service could shift from “intermittent” to more continuous coverage down the line. But if it falls short, the stock could swiftly reprice, since the whole story hinges on execution.
On the Street, the focus is sharpening on how many satellites are needed to deliver a service customers will actually want. After recent talks with the company, William Blair stuck to a Market Perform rating, suggesting around 25 satellites might provide intermittent coverage in key markets for now. More extensive service is anticipated as the constellation expands through 2026. 3
Traders are focused on one key point: whether the late-February window for BlueBird 7 holds firm. They’re also looking for hints that subsequent launches are lining up behind it. Any updates from carrier partners about trial schedules would help clarify when revenue might start flowing.
AST is set to update investors next with its quarterly earnings, penciled in for around March 2 on most market calendars. Details on launch schedules, satellite production rates, and cash requirements could push the stock up or down ahead of the late-February launch window. 4
