New York, Jan 7, 2026, 12:42 (EST) — Regular session
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) fell 8.5% to $89.18 in midday trading on Wednesday after Scotiabank cut the satellite communications company to sector underperform. The stock opened at $91 and hit a session low of $88.49 as volume rose past 12.3 million shares.
The downgrade hits after a sharp run that has pushed the stock close to its highs and made valuation the central argument. Shares have more than tripled over the past 12 months, even though the company is not expected to post positive operating profit until 2027. 1
Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello set a $45.60 price target — a broker’s estimate of where the stock could trade over the next 12 months — and called the company’s roughly $37 billion valuation at Tuesday’s close “irrational.” He said AST has yet to sign a retail customer and may need around 50 satellites in orbit to offer continuous service in some markets by late 2026 or early 2027. Coello said meaningful free cash flow, or cash left after capital spending, may not show up until 2028 or 2029. 2
AST says it is building a space-based cellular broadband network using a constellation of BlueBird low-Earth-orbit satellites designed to connect directly with standard, unmodified phones for commercial and government use. 3
In the race to link phones from space, Starlink is the yardstick. Coello wrote that AST faces an “uphill battle” against SpaceX’s Starlink, noting that while AST has launched seven satellites since 2017, Starlink orbited 3,169 in 2025 alone. 4
Targets elsewhere on the Street sit far below the stock’s recent price. Data compiled by MarketBeat show the average analyst target at about $45.66. 5
But the call cuts both ways. If AST accelerates launches and converts early trials into paying usage sooner than expected, the stock’s premium could hold; if not, the market may start pricing in more dilution and a longer wait for cash.
The next marker is the quarterly update. The company has not confirmed the date, but market calendars show the next earnings report expected around March 2. 6
