NEW YORK, Jan 7, 2026, 14:43 EST — Regular session
- AST SpaceMobile shares fall about 11% in afternoon trade after a Scotiabank downgrade.
- The bank’s $45.60 target sits at the low end of a Street range that runs up to $95.
- Focus shifts to launch pace, early customer uptake and the cash burn timeline.
AST SpaceMobile shares slid about 11% on Wednesday after Scotiabank downgraded the satellite-to-smartphone company. The stock was down $10.77 at $86.72 in afternoon trade, after touching $95.25 earlier and a low of $85.37.
The drop matters now because ASTS is priced like a timetable. Investors have been leaning on the idea that direct-to-device broadband — 4G and 5G links beamed from orbit to standard phones — moves from tests to paying users sooner rather than later, and without ugly surprises.
AT&T said it plans to start offering a “beta” direct-to-device satellite service in the first half of this year after AST launched its next-generation BlueBird 6 satellite in December. The initial service will be available to “a select number” of consumer customers and FirstNet public safety users in the next six months, with a “commercial launch to follow,” and an AT&T spokesperson said it was “still too early to give a specific date” for expansion beyond beta. 1
Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello cut AST to “sector underperform” from “sector perform” and set a $45.60 price target, saying the company’s roughly $37 billion market value had reached “irrational levels” for a firm that has yet to win a retail customer. Coello said AST faces the heavy lift of deploying about 50 satellites to deliver continuous service in select markets by late 2026 or early 2027, and warned investors may have to wait until 2028 or 2029 for meaningful free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital spending. 2
For investors searching an ASTS stock price forecast, the spread between targets tells the story. TradingView data show an average 12-month price target of $77.01, with estimates ranging from $45.60 to $95.00. 3
The selloff shoved the shares back under $90 and left them deep in the red for the session. Traders will be watching whether the stock can hold above Wednesday’s lows, or whether more valuation-driven calls force another leg down.
But the bigger risk sits off the screen. Any slip in launch cadence, slower-than-hoped user uptake in early markets, or a larger funding need could keep the stock swinging, especially with SpaceX’s Starlink setting a high bar on scale and speed.
Next up, investors are looking for the next concrete milestone on deployment and partner rollouts — and for the company’s next results update to spell out cash burn and timing. MarketScreener lists AST’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release as projected for March 26. 4
