On Thursday, 11 December 2025, the Australian stock market managed a cautious win. The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,592 points, up 12–13 points (around 0.15%), nudging back above its 20‑day moving average after a choppy session that started with Fed-fuelled optimism and ended with more muted risk appetite. [1]
Key takeaways for Australia’s stock market today
- ASX 200 closed at 8,592 (+0.15%), with the All Ordinaries up about 0.1%, while small caps and tech underperformed. [2]
- Miners led the charge: the Materials index hit record territory this month as iron ore held above US$100 a tonne and heavyweight names like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue gained. [3]
- Rate narrative is turning more hawkish: unemployment stayed at 4.3% but weaker participation and full‑time job losses sharpened debate about a possible RBA hike as early as February 2026, even as AMP and others still expect rates on hold through 2026. [4]
- Fed cut, but fewer cuts ahead: the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bp rate cut and restarted bond purchases, yet signalled a slower pace of easing next year – a key reason the ASX finished only modestly higher. [5]
- Stock stories of the day included surges in James Hardie, Ramelius Resources, Flight Centre and Myer, while Catalyst Metals, DroneShield, Premier Investments and several growth names were among the laggards. [6]
Market close: modest gains mask a volatile session
By the closing bell in Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 had added roughly 12.6 points to 8,592, a gain of 0.1–0.15%, putting the index back above its 20‑day moving average but leaving it down about 0.3% over the past five sessions and up a little over 5% year‑to‑date. [7]
Other key benchmarks painted a similar “soft green” picture:
- All Ordinaries: 8,877.5, up 0.11%
- Small Ordinaries: 3,649.5, down 0.17%
- S&P/ASX All Tech: 3,425.9, down 1.41% [8]
The storyline of the day was one of early enthusiasm fading into caution. Futures and the open were buoyed by the Fed’s overnight rate cut, with the ASX 200 at one point up nearly 1% and the Materials index surging close to 2%. But by mid‑afternoon the benchmark had surrendered most of those gains, ending only slightly in the green as tech, healthcare and other long‑duration sectors came under pressure. [9]
Several outlets characterised the move as the market “hardly moving” or “modestly higher” after all the central‑bank excitement – a reminder that big macro headlines don’t always translate into big local moves when they’re already fully priced in. [10]
Miners shine as iron ore and China tailwinds build
If you only looked at the resource sector, you might think it had been a blockbuster day.
- The S&P/ASX 200 Materials index climbed again and is now up about 7.5% for the month, trading around all‑time highs as investors pile into iron ore, gold, copper and lithium names. [11]
- Sector data showed Materials up around 0.85–0.9% on the day, outperforming every other major group, with Real Estate and Energy also in the green. [12]
On the stock level:
- BHP traded near two‑year highs, less than 2% away from fresh records, supported by iron ore around US$100–106 a tonne. [13]
- Rio Tinto hit record territory, while Fortescue extended a powerful rally, now roughly 50% higher than its June levels. [14]
- News coverage also highlighted strong days for gold producers and diversified miners, benefiting from both firmer commodity prices and hopes that policy support in China will continue to underpin demand. [15]
Behind the rally, strategists pointed to China’s latest trade and commodity data, which suggest resilient iron ore, copper and coal demand into 2026, with supply constraints and structural demand in India and Southeast Asia providing additional support. [16]
For investors, the message is that resources remain the market’s workhorse – but valuations are getting fuller, and a lot now rides on Chinese growth, stimulus and the durability of iron ore above US$100.
Banks, retailers and travel names quietly support the index
Outside the miners, the big banks provided a steadier, if less exciting, backbone to the market:
- Reports noted Westpac, NAB and ANZ posting modest gains, while Commonwealth Bank eased slightly. [17]
- Sector indices showed Financials up roughly 0.3%, helped by a small pullback in bond yields after recent spikes. [18]
In the consumer and travel space, several stocks told more colourful stories:
- Flight Centre jumped around 5–8% after announcing the acquisition of UK cruise agency Iglu and upgrading its FY26 profit guidance, with management flagging the deal as earnings accretive as the company leans harder into the high‑growth cruise segment. [19]
- Myer rallied close to 10% intraday on the back of record Black Friday sales and the news that billionaire Solomon Lew will join the retailer’s board, signalling intensified strategic focus after a volatile year for the share price. [20]
- Insurance group IAG was under pressure after the competition regulator ACCC blocked its proposed acquisition of RAC Insurance, warning the deal would significantly reduce competition in Western Australia for motor and home insurance. [21]
These stories underscore a broader theme: investors are rewarding companies with clear growth catalysts or credible turnaround narratives, even as the wider index trades sideways.
Growth and healthcare stocks lag; small caps keep struggling
Zooming out beyond the big end of town, Thursday’s session once again penalised high‑multiple, growth‑oriented names:
- The All Tech index fell about 1.4%, while Health Care dropped just over 1%, continuing a multi‑week pattern of underperformance for longer‑duration sectors. [22]
- Intraday scans highlighted weakness in Telix Pharmaceuticals, Regis Healthcare, REA Group, Life360, Liontown, Seek and Hub24, all down between ~1.8% and 3% from their opening levels. [23]
At the individual stock level, the top of the leaderboard was dominated by resource‑linked and cyclical names:
- James Hardie surged about 7%, tracking a strong move in its US‑listed peers and topping the ASX 200 performance tables.
- Ramelius Resources rose roughly 6–7%, while Flight Centre, Scentre Group and Whitehaven Coal also featured prominently among the day’s biggest gainers. [24]
On the flip side, some big losers stood out:
- Catalyst Metals sank nearly 9%,
- DroneShield dropped more than 6%,
- Premier Investments, Mesoblast and Eagers Automotive all recorded falls of around 4–5%. [25]
A separate wrap on the small‑cap space noted that despite the broader index inching higher, many smaller, more speculative names continue to struggle, highlighting the two‑speed nature of the Australian market right now: blue‑chip miners and defensive yield names on one track, small caps and growth on a much bumpier one. [26]
Macro backdrop: Fed cut, RBA nerves and a mixed jobs report
Fed’s third cut, but a cooler path ahead
Globally, Thursday’s trade in Australia was framed by the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy move. The Fed:
- Delivered its third consecutive 25 bp rate cut, taking the funds rate to about 3.50–3.75%,
- Restarted quantitative easing, authorising US$40 billion a month in Treasury purchases,
- Signalled via its “dot plot” that only one cut is likely in 2026 and one in 2027, with several officials favouring nocuts at all in 2026. [27]
Because markets had long anticipated this step, Australian shares barely budged on the news, with one analysis noting that the ASX 200 “hardly moved” as traders instead focused on the Fed’s more cautious outlook for future cuts. [28]
The key implication for local investors: global liquidity isn’t evaporating, but the turbo‑charged easing cycle some had hoped for looks less likely, tempering enthusiasm for high‑growth and rate‑sensitive sectors.
Australian jobs data: soft edges on a still‑tight market
Locally, the November labour force report was the major macro catalyst:
- The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, slightly better than the 4.4% consensus.
- Full‑time employment fell by about 57,000, while part‑time roles rose by around 35,000, indicating a shift in job quality.
- Participation slipped as roughly 21,000 people left the workforce, and overall employment growth (1.3% over the year) lagged population growth (about 2%). [29]
Economists described the data as “mixed” – soft enough to show the labour market is easing gradually, but still tight by historical standards. A note from RBC Capital Markets emphasised that underutilisation is creeping higher yet remains well below its long‑run average, and projected unemployment to drift towards 4.25–4.5% through 2026. [30]
What it means for the RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stressed that the risks to inflation are now tilted to the upside, particularly after stronger‑than‑expected October CPI and household spending data. [31]
Key points from today’s commentary:
- Several analysts warned that if Q4 CPI prints at 0.9% quarter‑on‑quarter or higher, the RBA may feel compelled to raise rates at its February 2026 meeting. [32]
- At the same time, AMP’s economists argued that, despite the hawkish rhetoric, they still expect the cash rate to remain on hold throughout 2026, viewing current conditions as consistent with a gently cooling economy rather than an overheating one. [33]
In practical terms, that leaves rate‑sensitive sectors (banks, property, growth tech) in a kind of limbo: supported by the prospect of lower global rates and a soft landing, but also facing the risk of another RBA hike if domestic inflation refuses to behave.
Currency, commodities and global risk sentiment
The macro cross‑currents also flowed through FX and commodities:
- The Australian dollar slipped to around US$0.663, down roughly 0.6% on the day, as traders digested the Fed’s cautious stance and the mixed local jobs picture. [34]
- Iron ore ticked up to around US$102–106 a tonne, reinforcing the bullish tone in miners. [35]
- Brent crude eased slightly and Bitcoin fell close to 2%, reflecting a broader “risk‑off” tilt in global futures into the European and US sessions despite the Fed cut. [36]
On the currency outlook, IG strategist Tony Sycamore projected that, barring major shocks, the Aussie dollar could grind higher towards US$0.6940–0.6950 by mid‑2026, helped by resilient domestic demand and steady employment, even as global policy support wanes. [37]
Outlook: what today’s ASX trade signals for 2026
Taken together, today’s modest rise in the ASX 200 hides some powerful trends that may shape the Australian sharemarket in 2026:
- Resource leadership looks durable – but increasingly priced in
- With miners at or near record highs, iron ore holding around US$100 and China data broadly supportive, resources could continue to anchor index returns. [38]
- The flip side is that any disappointment – whether via weaker Chinese growth, policy missteps or commodity price corrections – could trigger sharper pullbacks from elevated levels.
- High‑multiple growth and healthcare remain in the penalty box
- Persistent underperformance in tech and healthcare reflects both higher real yields and investor preference for near‑term cashflows over long‑duration earnings stories. [39]
- A stabilisation – or clear downtrend – in global yields may be needed before these parts of the market regain sustained momentum.
- Rates path is the swing factor for banks, REITs and small caps
- A February 2026 RBA hike would likely favour the major banks’ net interest margins but could weigh on housing‑linked names and more leveraged small caps. [40]
- Conversely, confirmation that the RBA is firmly on hold, paired with gentle global easing, would be a tailwind for REITs, infrastructure and growth – but might cap bank outperformance.
- Consumers and services are quietly keeping the expansion alive
- Household spending rose about 0.5% month‑on‑month and 5.5% year‑on‑year, according to today’s coverage, with experiential categories like travel and entertainment leading the way – consistent with strong moves in Flight Centre and related names. [41]
- As long as employment remains high and wage growth reasonably healthy, this consumer resilience could cushion the market if external shocks hit.
- Key near‑term catalysts to watch
- November CPI (7 January) and Q4 CPI (28 January) – crucial for gauging whether a February RBA hike is on the table. [42]
- Chinese activity data on 15 December – particularly industrial production and property‑related numbers that feed directly into demand expectations for Australian commodities. [43]
- Ongoing corporate updates, including further board and strategy moves at Myer, integration progress at Flight Centre’s Iglu acquisition, and regulatory developments around IAG and the broader insurance sector. [44]
Bottom line
Australia’s stock market today delivered a small gain that felt more like a ceasefire than a victory.
Miners and select cyclicals are doing the heavy lifting, powered by iron ore and China optimism, while tech, healthcare and many small caps struggle under the weight of higher‑for‑longer real yields and lingering growth worries. The Fed’s latest cut offered no new sugar rush, and the RBA’s increasingly hawkish tone means local investors will be watching every inflation print and labour update very closely.
For now, the ASX 200 sits in a narrow band: not cheap enough to scream value, not expensive enough to scream danger – and today’s trade suggests that until the tug‑of‑war between inflation, rates and growth is resolved, modest, miner‑led advances like this may be the template rather than the exception.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own objectives and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
References
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