ASX 200 Preview: What to Know Before the Australian Stock Market Opens on 15 December 2025

Australian shares head into Monday’s session with a mixed set of signals: local momentum improved into Friday’s close, but offshore leads turned risk-off late in the week as U.S. tech slid and bond yields jumped. The result is a cautious start to the new week, with futures pointing to a softer open and the day’s biggest macro catalyst arriving out of China later in the session.

Below is what matters most for the ASX 200 and the broader Australian share market before the opening bell on Monday, 15 December 2025.

At a glance: the five things traders will watch first

Futures lean lower: SPI/ASX 200 futures are signaling a modest pullback at the open after Friday’s rally in cash equities. ^[1]
Wall Street: tech drags, yields jump: U.S. markets ended Friday sharply lower, led by a tech sell-off and higher Treasury yields. ^[2]
Commodities split: Gold is holding near recent highs (supportive for ASX gold names), while oil remains soft and iron ore is jittery on China demand worries. ^[3]
RBA outlook stays the big local macro theme: The Reserve Bank’s “hawkish hold” has left markets debating whether 2026 brings a long pause, a hike, or delayed cuts. ^[4]
China data later Monday: Mainland China industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment are due Monday—potentially important for miners and cyclicals into the afternoon. ^[5]

1) Where ASX futures point heading into Monday’s open

After the S&P/ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,697.3 (up 1.23%), the futures market is suggesting the index may start Monday on the back foot. ^[6]

SPI 200 (Dec) futures were last indicated around the mid‑8,650s, implying the cash market could open roughly ~40 points lower (give or take) than Friday’s close. ^[7]

Why it matters: the ASX’s early tone often follows the “weekend lead” from global risk sentiment (especially the U.S.), but Monday’s sector leadership can still diverge—particularly when Australia’s heavyweight groups (banks and miners) are being pulled in opposite directions by rates vs commodities.

2) Offshore lead: Wall Street sold off as tech weakness returned

The strongest headwind into Monday is the late‑week shift in U.S. markets. On Friday:

The S&P 500 fell 1.07%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.69%, and the Dow fell 0.51%. ^[8]
A key driver was renewed caution around AI/tech positioning, with weakness tied to large-cap tech and AI-related names, alongside a jump in U.S. Treasury yields. ^[9]

For ASX investors, the transmission channels are straightforward:

ASX tech and growth stocks tend to feel Nasdaq-led risk moves most directly (via sentiment and discount-rate effects).
Bond yields rising is often a double hit for “long-duration” equities—first through valuation math, then through risk appetite. ^[10]

The nuance: Wall Street’s retreat wasn’t a broad “everything breaks” move. Cyclical and value pockets held up better than the high-multiple tech complex, which keeps the door open for continued rotation—a theme also being discussed locally as Australian tech has underperformed. ^[11]

3) Commodities check: gold strength vs oil softness vs iron ore nerves

Gold: still a tailwind for ASX materials and gold miners

Gold has remained near a seven-week high, supported by expectations that U.S. rates can drift lower over time even after the Fed’s recent cut—conditions that typically help non-yielding assets. ^[12]

This matters for Monday because Friday’s local rally leaned heavily on materials and gold exposure, with the broader market benefiting from that “defensive commodity” bid. ^[13]

What to watch at the open:

Whether gold-linked strength can offset weakness elsewhere (particularly if tech opens heavy).
Whether the market keeps rewarding “real asset” exposures amid ongoing macro uncertainty.

Oil: remains a drag risk for energy on the ASX

Oil ended the week lower, weighed down by surplus narratives and geopolitics that—at least for now—aren’t translating into sustained price support. Reuters reported Friday settlements around $61.12 Brent and $57.44 WTI. ^[14]

On the ASX, softer crude can pressure energy producers early (and influence broader “reflation” trades). The flip side is that cheaper oil can be a small positive for transport, consumer, and inflation-sensitive pockets over time.

Iron ore: the key swing factor for the “big miners” trade

Iron ore is still wrestling with a familiar tension: intermittent policy-hope bursts versus demand reality in China’s steel sector. Late last week, Reuters noted iron ore futures weakened on China demand concerns, with Singapore benchmark futures around $101.35/t and the Dalian contract down on the day. ^[15]

For Monday’s ASX open, this is crucial because:

The index’s heavyweight miners (and the broader materials complex) can’t rely only on gold—iron ore directionstill matters for the major diversified names.
Any negative surprise out of China’s data later Monday could amplify moves in ore and bulk-exposed stocks. ^[16]

4) The Australian dollar and global rates: a market that’s still trading the “pause vs hike” debate

The AUD/USD has been hovering in the mid‑0.66 area (around 0.665), a level that reflects competing forces: softer U.S. dollar trends after the Fed decision versus global risk volatility and commodity swings. ^[17]

In the U.S., yields moved higher again on Friday as investors absorbed post‑Fed messaging and inflation caution from officials, helping the dollar stabilize. ^[18]

For Australia, the bigger question remains domestic rates—and markets have become far less confident that the next RBA move is down.

What the RBA signal is doing to the ASX

A Reuters poll ahead of the RBA’s December meeting captured the shift: economists broadly expected the cash rate to stay at 3.60%, with many looking for a prolonged hold through 2026, while interest-rate markets have been pricing growing odds of a hike later in 2026. ^[19]

After the December decision, the debate intensified. Reuters reported the RBA flagging inflation risks “to the upside”and highlighting uncertainty around the monthly CPI signal, while noting inflation had been running hotter than the target band. ^[20]

ABC’s coverage underscored how direct the rhetoric was: Governor Michele Bullock said cuts were not on the horizon “for the foreseeable future,” shifting focus to whether the outcome becomes an extended hold or a possible hike. ^[21]

Westpac’s economists described the decision as a “hawkish hold,” noting hike probabilities rose after the press conference, though their base case remained a prolonged pause dependent on incoming data. ^[22]

ASX implication for Monday:

Banks can be supported by “higher-for-longer” expectations (net interest margin narratives), but the market also weighs credit quality and mortgage stress if rates were to rise again.
Rate-sensitive sectors (A‑REITs, high‑multiple tech, “bond proxy” defensives) can be more fragile if yields keep pushing up. ^[23]

5) Stocks and themes in focus: what carried Friday, and what could reverse Monday

Friday’s rally was led by gold and banks

The ASX finished last week on a strong note, with gold-linked names and major banks among the key drivers of Friday’s jump. ^[24]

That matters because Monday’s open could test whether the market can hold those gains when the U.S. tech lead is negative and oil is soft.

M&A and “deal stocks” remain part of the local tape

One of the biggest corporate stories in play is the agreed buyout of National Storage REIT by a Brookfield/GIC-led consortium—one of the largest take-private deals in Australian real estate—expected to complete in Q2 2026 (subject to conditions). ^[25]

Why it matters into Monday:

Deal activity can buoy sentiment in A‑REITs and yield assets, even when macro is choppy.
It can also put a spotlight on “who’s next” speculation across parts of the market.

ASX Ltd and market infrastructure: operational resilience is a live issue

S&P reportedly revised ASX’s outlook to negative (while maintaining ratings), citing persistent operational issues and risk management concerns linked to major outages and the ageing CHESS platform. ^[26]

Even if it doesn’t dominate headlines on Monday morning, it’s the kind of development that can influence ASX Ltdsentiment and keep attention on market plumbing—particularly for institutional investors.

6) The calendar: the data releases that can move the market today and this week

Monday 15 December: China macro is the main event

S&P Global’s weekly preview flags a heavy Monday in Asia-Pacific data, with China set to report industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, unemployment, and house prices. ^[27]

Why it matters for Australian stocks:

Stronger China activity data can lift bulk commodities and support miners.
Weak data can reinforce demand concerns already showing up in iron ore commentary and keep pressure on China-sensitive cyclicals. ^[28]

Tuesday 16 December: Australia flash PMI and consumer sentiment

Two domestic reads are on the radar this week:

Australia S&P Global flash PMI (manufacturing & services) is due Tuesday. ^[29]
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index is also due Tuesday, with investors watching for any hit to confidence from revived rate-hike talk. ^[30]

Global macro: more volatility catalysts are queued up

The global schedule includes key PMI surveys and major data points in the days ahead, which can influence risk pricing and rates (and therefore the ASX’s sector leadership). ^[31]

7) How to think about Monday’s session: three scenarios

Base case (most likely early):
A slightly weaker open as futures imply, with leadership likely rotating toward gold/materials if bullion stays firm—while tech and growth remain vulnerable to the U.S. lead. ^[32]

Bull case:
China’s data prints stronger than feared, easing demand concerns and stabilizing iron ore and the big miners. That could help the ASX shake off Wall Street’s late-week weakness into the afternoon. ^[33]

Bear case:
U.S. rate pressure persists (higher yields), China data disappoints, and iron ore stays heavy—creating a two‑front drag on the ASX via valuation pressure (rates) and resources pressure (China/commodities). ^[34]

Bottom line before the ASX open

The Australian stock market is set to begin 15 December 2025 cautiously: futures indicate a softer start after Friday’s strong close, with Wall Street’s tech-led decline and rising yields acting as the immediate headwinds. ^[35]

But the ASX’s direction won’t be decided at the open alone. Gold’s resilience and the day’s China economic data are likely to determine whether early weakness becomes a simple “Monday fade” or something more sustained—and whether leadership stays with materials and financials or rotates again. ^[36]

This article is general market commentary and not financial advice.