The Australian share market is set for a cautious start on Tuesday as investors juggle a soft overnight lead from Wall Street, a pivotal Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision this afternoon and the US Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025 later this week. Here’s your pre‑open playbook for 9 December 2025.
Quick snapshot
- Futures: ASX 200 SPI futures are pointing lower, down about 26 points (‑0.3%) ahead of the open. [1]
- Wall Street: S&P 500 (‑0.35%), Dow (‑0.45%) and Nasdaq (‑0.14%) all slipped as bond yields climbed and traders waited on the Fed. [2]
- Rates: Markets price roughly an 85–90% chance of a 25 bp Fed rate cut this week and expect the RBA to hold at 3.60% this afternoon, with a “hawkish hold” the base case. [3]
- Commodities: Iron ore has softened on signs of seasonal slowdown in China; gold is hovering just above US$4,180/oz; oil has retreated, with WTI around US$59. [4]
- FX: The Australian dollar is trading around US$0.66, a touch weaker overnight as US yields push higher. [5]
- Local drivers: RBA decision (2:30pm AEDT), NAB Business Survey (11:30am AEDT) and continuing reaction to M&A (National Storage REIT) and lithium sector upgrades (Liontown, Pilbara, Mineral Resources). [6]
Let’s dig into the details.
1. Futures point to a softer open for the ASX 200
MarketIndex’s morning wrap shows S&P/ASX 200 futures down about 26 points (‑0.30%) as of 8:30am AEDT, implying a modest pull‑back at the open. [7]
That comes after the ASX 200 closed 10.2 points lower on Monday, down 0.12% around 8,624, as losses in heavyweight miners offset strong gains in lithium stocks. [8]
Key context:
- Materials and utilities were among the weakest sectors on Monday.
- Lithium names – Liontown, Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources – surged, helping limit the index decline. [9]
The futures move reflects both that mixed local backdrop and a slightly risk‑off tone from offshore markets.
2. Wall Street pulls back from record highs ahead of the Fed
Overnight, US equities slipped from near‑record territory:
- S&P 500: 6,847 (‑0.35%)
- Dow Jones: 47,739 (‑0.45%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 23,546 (‑0.14%) [10]
According to Reuters and other US market wraps:
- All three major US indices finished near session lows as Treasury yields ticked higher; the US 10‑year yield rose to around 4.17%, its highest level since late September. [11]
- Every S&P 500 sector fell except technology, with cyclicals like consumer discretionary, materials and communication services under more pressure. [12]
- Traders now price roughly an 89–90% probability of a 25 bp Fed cut at this week’s meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. [13]
Strategists are increasingly upbeat on the medium‑term outlook but wary about near‑term positioning:
- MarketIndex notes the NAAIM exposure index near 98.5, the high end of its typical range, suggesting US active managers are heavily invested in equities. [14]
- Oppenheimer has set a Street‑high S&P 500 target of 8,100 for 2026, citing robust earnings and easier policy, while JPMorgan warns the recent rally may pause once the Fed cut is priced in. [15]
For Australian traders, the takeaway is that global risk appetite is still broadly constructive, but markets are sensitive to any hint the Fed might not deliver the “just dovish enough” message investors want.
3. RBA expected to hold at 3.60% – but tone matters more than the move
The RBA’s December Board meeting concludes today, with the Monetary Policy Decision Statement due at 2:30pm AEDT and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference an hour later. [16]
Consensus across banks and derivatives markets is clear:
- The cash rate is widely expected to stay at 3.60% for a third consecutive meeting. [17]
- Interbank futures were implying almost no chance of a cut this month, with pricing anchored around the current cash rate. [18]
Why the “hawkish hold” narrative?
- Inflation surprised to the upside: October CPI rose 3.8% y/y, the highest in ten months and above expectations. [19]
- GDP growth has re‑accelerated, with Q3 output up 2.1% y/y, slightly above the RBA’s estimate of trend. [20]
- Governor Bullock recently warned that if inflation proves more persistent, it would have “implications for policy,” prompting markets to push back expectations for further easing and even price in a small chance of rate hikes in 2026. [21]
Economists are divided on the 2026 path:
- A BrokerDaily survey notes some market participants now see the next move as a hike, while others – including AMP’s Diana Mousina – argue talk of tighter policy is “premature” and still see greater odds of a cut in 2026. [22]
- Big banks like ANZ have stepped back from forecasting further cuts, suggesting 3.60% could prove the effective terminal rate for this cycle unless data deteriorate. [23]
For equities, the language around inflation risks, wage growth and the labour market will likely matter more than the headline “no change” decision – particularly for rate‑sensitive banks, REITs and consumer names.
4. NAB Business Survey and China data in focus
Before the RBA, traders will digest key business sentiment data:
- NAB’s Business Confidence and Business Conditions indices for November are scheduled for 11:30am AEDT. Westpac’s preview puts conditions around +9 and confidence roughly mid‑single digits, both above long‑run averages but off earlier peaks.
Recent commentary from NAB, Westpac and the RBA suggests:
- Business conditions have improved through October, reaching the highest level since early 2024, supported by stronger sales and profitability.
- Confidence remains positive but fragile, reflecting cost‑of‑living pressures and uncertainty around rates.
China is another big macro swing factor:
- November trade data show exports up 5.9% y/y and the goods trade surplus above US$1 trillion year‑to‑date for the first time, highlighting resilient external demand despite a weak property sector. [24]
- Customs data also reveal iron ore imports up 8.5% y/y to 110.5 million tonnes in November, alongside higher crude oil and soybean imports. [25]
That mix – softer domestic demand, but robust exports and strong resource imports – is nuanced for Australian miners: supportive for long‑term iron ore volumes, but not necessarily for prices in the very short term.
5. Commodities: iron ore softens, gold pauses, oil slides
Iron ore: seasonal fatigue and rising stocks
Iron ore remains under pressure:
- A global mining‑sector analytics report notes that January iron ore futures on Singapore fell about 2.3% between 28 November and 5 December to around US$103/t, while Dalian contracts dipped roughly 0.9% to US$111/t. [26]
- Sharecafe reports that China’s steel sector is showing clear year‑end slowdown signs, with blast furnace utilisation rates falling, Australian shipments (including Port Hedland) rising and Chinese port inventories climbing to around 142 million tonnes. [27]
Rising inventories and seasonal weakness create a headwind for major ASX materials names such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue at today’s open.
Gold: holding near record highs but easing ahead of the Fed
Gold is still trading at lofty levels but edged lower overnight:
- Reuters reports spot gold around US$4,189/oz (‑0.2%), with February futures near US$4,218/oz as investors stay cautious ahead of this week’s Fed decision. [28]
Despite the dip, banks like Morgan Stanley still see scope for gold to test higher levels in early 2026, citing central‑bank buying, ETF inflows and safe‑haven demand. [29]
For the ASX, the combination of slightly softer gold and rising yields could see gold miners give back some recent gains unless the Fed delivers a particularly dovish message.
Oil: weaker prices weigh on energy
MarketIndex’s overnight table shows:
- WTI crude at about US$58.9 (‑2.1%), reflecting concerns about demand and ongoing supply dynamics, even as China’s crude imports hit their highest daily level in more than two years. [30]
Lower oil prices may pressure ASX energy producers at the open but can be marginally supportive for inflation expectations and rate‑sensitive sectors.
6. Monday’s ASX wrap: big miners drag, lithium steals the show
The ASX 200’s modest fall on Monday hid some large moves under the surface:
- The index closed about 0.1–0.12% lower near 8,624, with materials the main drag. [31]
- BHP and Rio Tinto both fell, reflecting weaker sentiment around bulk commodities even as Chinese trade data surprised on the upside. [32]
By contrast, lithium stocks lit up the board:
- MarketIndex’s evening wrap highlights Liontown Resources up 14.8% and Pilbara Minerals up 6.1%, driven by a roughly 3% jump in benchmark lithium carbonate prices on China’s GFEX and sharply higher long‑term price forecasts. [33]
- UBS upgraded Liontown from Sell to Buy and sharply increased its lithium price outlook for 2026–28 (forecasting earnings for pure‑play miners more than doubling in FY27–28), further fuelling the rally. [34]
Property and infrastructure also had a moment:
- National Storage REIT rallied after agreeing to a A$4 billion (US$2.65bn) all‑cash takeover led by Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC at A$2.86 per security, a roughly 26% premium to its late‑November price and the largest ever take‑private of an Australian REIT. [35]
Those themes – lithium strength, iron ore softness, M&A in storage and ongoing rate sensitivity – are all likely to influence trading patterns again today.
7. Stocks and sectors to watch at the open
1. Big miners (BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue)
- Under pressure from softer iron ore prices and signs of seasonal slowdown in China’s steel sector, even as November import volumes remain robust. [36]
- Expect close attention to any intra‑day headlines about Chinese stimulus or the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference later in December.
2. Lithium and battery metals (Liontown, Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, IGO)
- UBS’s bullish long‑term price deck and stronger lithium carbonate futures continue to underpin sentiment after Monday’s double‑digit gains in Liontown and solid moves in peers. [37]
- With global strategists increasingly positive on early‑cycle plays and small caps, lithium remains a key swing sector for ASX risk appetite. [38]
3. National Storage REIT (NSR) and property
- The Brookfield–GIC deal keeps NSR in focus as traders handicap deal risk and potential competing bids. [39]
- The transaction also raises broader questions around private‑capital appetite for Australian real estate, which could spill over into other storage, logistics and REIT names.
4. ResMed (RMD)
- ResMed announced US FDA clearance for “Smart Comfort”, an AI‑enabled feature that personalises CPAP therapy comfort settings based on over 100 million nights of sleep data – the first device of its kind to receive clearance. [40]
- While the biggest immediate impact is on the US‑listed stock, the news is relevant for RMD.AX as it reinforces ResMed’s technology leadership and longer‑term growth story in sleep apnoea.
5. Banks and rate‑sensitive plays
- The RBA decision and any shift in forward guidance will be pivotal for major banks (CBA, NAB, Westpac, ANZ) as well as REITs, consumer discretionary and high‑multiple growth names. [41]
8. Aussie dollar and bonds: reading the macro tea leaves
The Australian dollar is trading just above US$0.66, slightly weaker overnight:
- YCharts data put AUD/USD at 0.6641 for 8 December, while MarketIndex’s overnight table shows the pair around 0.6623 (‑0.26%) in early Asia dealing. [42]
The drivers:
- Higher US yields and a firmer dollar as traders brace for a “hawkish cut” from the Fed. [43]
- Local markets largely priced for the RBA to hold, so any surprise in tone rather than the decision itself is likely to move AUD today. [44]
Westpac’s morning commentary flags this afternoon’s RBA statement and Thursday’s jobs report as key event risks for the currency in the near term.
On the rates side, NAB and Westpac note:
- The 3‑year Australian yield has drifted higher in recent weeks alongside global yields, as markets pulled back expectations for aggressive easing in 2026.
- The RBA’s tone on inflation and wages will shape whether markets lean further toward the “no more cuts, maybe hikes later” narrative or revert to a more balanced view.
9. How today’s macro set‑up could shape ASX trading
Putting it all together, here’s how the main scenarios might play out for the 9 December 2025 session:
- Baseline (most likely): hawkish‑but‑cautious RBA + hawkish Fed cut still ahead
- More hawkish‑than‑expected RBA
- Any hint that the next move could be up rather than down, or stronger language around upside inflation risks, would likely:
- Support the AUD, at least initially.
- Pressure high‑PE growth names and some REITs.
- Be mildly positive for banks (improved margin expectations) but negative for highly leveraged households and discretionary retailers. [48]
- Any hint that the next move could be up rather than down, or stronger language around upside inflation risks, would likely:
- More dovish‑than‑expected RBA
- If the statement emphasises downside growth risks and suggests the door remains open to future cuts, the reaction could flip:
- Banks and the AUD may soften.
- Interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors – property, consumer, some tech – could outperform. [49]
- If the statement emphasises downside growth risks and suggests the door remains open to future cuts, the reaction could flip:
Whatever the outcome, today’s session is very much a “central‑bank sandwich” for ASX investors: the RBA at lunchtime, the Fed late Wednesday US time, and plenty of data in between (NAB survey, Chinese CPI/PPI, US JOLTS and more).
As always, this is general market commentary, not personal financial advice. If you’re making investment decisions, it’s worth considering your own risk tolerance, time horizon and, ideally, getting professional advice.
References
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