ASX 200 Week Ahead: RBA Hawkish Hold Meets Fed Rate Cut as Australian Shares Head Into a High-Stakes Data Week (15

Updated: Sunday, 14 December 2025

Australia’s share market is heading into the second-last full trading week before Christmas with two forces pulling in opposite directions: a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at home and a fresh US Federal Reserve rate cut offshore. The result is a market that finished last week stronger overall—but with sharp sector divergence that’s likely to remain the defining feature of the week ahead. ^[1]

The S&P/ASX 200 ended Friday, 12 December, at 8,697.3, after a 105-point (+1.23%) surge on the day and a 0.7% weekly gain—its third straight weekly rise. ^[2] Heading into Monday’s open, ASX 200 futures were trading around 8,656 on Sunday, suggesting a slightly softer lead-in (not unusual in pre-holiday conditions). ^[3]

Below is what mattered on the ASX between 8–14 December 2025, and what investors will be watching closely in the week ahead (15–19 December).

What moved the ASX last week (8–12 Dec): a rate shock, then a “Santa” burst

Monday (8 Dec): cautious ahead of the RBA

Australian shares snapped a four-day winning streak, with the ASX 200 down 0.12% to 8,624.4, as investors held back ahead of the RBA decision. ^[4]

Corporate headlines also shaped early-week positioning. ABC’s market wrap flagged National Storage REIT after accepting a takeover proposal, and pointed to lithium names among the biggest movers—early signs of the resource/rotation theme that kept returning all week. ^[5]

Tuesday (9 Dec): RBA holds at 3.60%—and sounds hawkish

The ASX 200 slid 0.5% to 8,585.9, after the RBA kept the cash rate at 3.60% and signalled it was not close to easing, with inflation risks still in focus. ^[6]

In its statement, the RBA explicitly said the Board judged it was not appropriate to lower interest rates, and Governor Michele Bullock’s remarks reinforced that the next move is not necessarily down. ^[7] Reuters also noted the RBA “ruled out further policy easing” while inflation remained above target, a key reason markets began discussing the possibility of a 2026 hike path. ^[8]

Wednesday (10 Dec): “Fed wait mode” and gold strength

The ASX 200 edged lower again (down roughly 0.1% to 8,579.4), as markets stayed cautious ahead of the Fed decision. Notably, gold miners outperformed—a theme that strengthened into Friday’s surge. ^[9]

Thursday (11 Dec): Fed cut tailwind meets local jobs reality

Australian shares rose about 0.2% to 8,592, as the global backdrop improved after the Fed cut rates—yet domestic data reminded investors why the RBA is uneasy. ^[10]

Australia’s November labour force report showed employment falling 23,100, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3% and the participation rate dipped to 66.7%—a combination that can look “better” on the headline unemployment rate, but softer under the hood. ^[11]

Friday (12 Dec): the breakout session—resources, banks, and gold lead

Friday delivered the week’s defining move: the ASX 200 jumped 1.23% to 8,697.3, driven by miners, banks, and a surge in gold names, with MarketIndex dubbing it the moment the “2025 Santa rally finally begins.” ^[12]

Reuters described it as a rally led by big banks and miners, helping lock in that 0.7% weekly gain. ^[13]

The big macro story: RBA hawkish hold vs Fed cut (and why ASX sector rotation intensified)

RBA: “on hold,” but not dovish

The RBA’s December decision kept rates at 3.60%, but the messaging was the headline. The Bank’s stance underscored that inflation risks and capacity constraints are still central concerns. ^[14]

That shift in tone matters for the ASX because it changes what the market rewards:

Rate-sensitive growth/tech tends to struggle when investors re-price the chance of “higher for longer.”
Banks can benefit from higher rate expectations (though the relationship is not linear—credit quality and funding costs also matter).
Resource stocks can dominate when commodity momentum is strong, regardless of domestic rates.

This “split market” showed up clearly in sector performance. FNArena noted Materials rose 4.26% last week while Information Technology fell 4.26%, describing ongoing rotation out of local tech and into resources. ^[15]

Fed: a cut, plus “reserve management” buying that markets are watching

In the US, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%. ^[16]

What turned heads was liquidity. Reuters reported the Fed also signalled Reserve Management Purchases, with buying set to begin 12 December, described in market commentary as technical reserve management rather than classic quantitative easing. ^[17] The New York Fed’s operational details around these purchases were also published, underscoring that the program is focused on maintaining ample reserves and smooth market functioning. ^[18]

For the ASX, the practical impact is sentiment and global risk appetite—especially via:

the US dollar (important for commodities priced in USD),
global bond yields (important for equity valuations),
and the overall “risk-on/risk-off” mood that drives flows into cyclical sectors.

Australia data check: business conditions, labour, and what it implies for rates

Two domestic data points framed the RBA debate last week:

NAB business survey: conditions eased, but capacity stayed tight

Reuters reported that Australia’s business conditions softened in November, yet capacity utilisation remained elevated—a combination that supports the RBA’s message that spare capacity is limited and inflation can prove sticky. ^[19]

Labour market: unemployment steady, but jobs fell

The ABS confirmed employment fell in November and the participation rate declined—data that can cool rate-hike expectations at the margin, even if inflation remains the RBA’s primary battleground. ^[20]

FNArena summed up the tension well: the RBA tone was hawkish, then the jobs report “muddied” the picture again—exactly the kind of push-pull that can keep the ASX choppy into year-end. ^[21]

Corporate and sector headlines that mattered (8–14 Dec)

Last week wasn’t only macro. A steady stream of corporate news helped explain why some pockets of the ASX moved sharply even when the index drifted.

M&A and deal flow stayed active

National Storage REIT (NSR) remained in focus after takeover developments, a reminder that private capital is still circling listed assets—particularly where valuations are compelling. ^[22]
Offshore, Reuters confirmed Singapore’s Sembcorp agreed to acquire Alinta Energy in a deal valued at A$6.5 billion enterprise value, a major energy-sector transaction with implications for Australia’s generation mix and transition investment narrative (even though Alinta itself is not ASX-listed). ^[23]

Regulators moved markets: ACCC blocks IAG’s RAC deal

One of the biggest ASX-specific regulatory headlines: the ACCC opposed Insurance Australia Group’s (IAG) proposed acquisition of RAC Insurance in Western Australia, warning the deal would likely substantially lessen competition in motor and home insurance in WA. ^[24]

That matters into the week ahead because regulatory clarity (or lack of it) can drive sharp moves in insurers, which sit at the intersection of pricing power, claims inflation, and now heightened competition scrutiny.

Index changes and infrastructure scrutiny: ASX under the microscope

The market continued to digest impending ASX 200 index changes effective later in December (a positioning factor that can influence flows into and out of specific names). Coverage around removals—such as Corporate Travel Management—kept this theme in the news cycle. ^[25]
Separately, S&P downgraded the ASX’s outlook to negative (while maintaining its rating), citing operational failures and risk management issues—another reminder that market infrastructure reliability remains a live issue for regulators and investors. ^[26]

Westpac AGM: governance pressure and scam-risk messaging

Reuters reported a notable shareholder protest at Westpac’s AGM, where a director narrowly retained his seat amid concerns tied to his previous ASX role, while Westpac also pushed for a bigger role for social platforms in scam prevention—an issue banks argue is now central to consumer trust and costs. ^[27]

Week ahead (15–19 Dec): the calendar that can move the ASX

With liquidity thinning into Christmas, scheduled events often have an outsized impact. Here are the main ones to watch for ASX direction next week.

1) AU: Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment (Tuesday, 16 Dec)

This release matters because it’s one of the clearest near-term reads on household mood—especially as rate expectations have shifted.

The Melbourne Institute lists the next release as Tuesday 16 December (11am AEDT). ^[28]
IG also flags the print on Tuesday 16 December, noting sentiment surged 12.8% to 103.8 in November—its strongest reading in years excluding the COVID disruption period—and expects a pullback if consumers become more worried about higher rates. ^[29]

ASX angle: Retail, discretionary, banks, and housing-linked exposures can react quickly if confidence rolls over sharply.

2) AU: MYEFO 2025–26 (Wednesday, 17 Dec)

The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook is one of the final major domestic macro events of the year.

Capital Brief reports MYEFO will be released Wednesday 17 December, and notes the government has already flagged upgrades including a doubling in forecast business investment growth for 2025–26 to 3% (from 1.5%). ^[30]

ASX angle: MYEFO can influence bond yields, rate expectations, infrastructure/defence narratives, and the broader “growth vs inflation” debate that feeds directly into equity multiples.

3) China data dump (Monday, 15 Dec)

China remains the single most important external driver for Australia’s materials complex.

IG highlights China releases including industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment on Monday 15 December, plus the house price index—data that can move iron ore-linked sentiment even before the ASX cash open. ^[31]

ASX angle: BHP/Rio/Fortescue plus bulk/energy services; also lithium and base metals where China demand expectations shape pricing.

4) US data backlog: payrolls, retail sales, CPI (mid-to-late week)

Because of the US government shutdown disruption, key releases are clustered.

IG flags US non-farm payrolls and retail sales scheduled for Wednesday 17 December, with US CPI on Friday 19 December. ^[32]

ASX angle: The fastest transmission channel is usually through US yields and the USD—impacting gold, energy, and the valuation of rate-sensitive sectors.

5) Central banks: Bank of Japan (Friday, 19 Dec) + Europe/UK decisions

A potential Bank of Japan move has become a global volatility risk.

IG says markets are bracing for a possible BoJ hike. ^[33]
Reuters has also highlighted the BoJ decision timing and how Japan’s policy trajectory is being watched closely by global markets. ^[34]

IG additionally flags the BoE and ECB meetings later in the week. ^[35]

ASX angle: Currency and global bond volatility can feed into the ASX via risk sentiment—particularly in banks, property, and high-PE sectors.

Three themes to watch on the ASX in the week ahead

Theme 1: Can the “Santa rally” broaden beyond resources and banks?

Friday’s surge was powerful, but breadth matters. Market commentary last week framed the move as the start of a year-end rally, yet the ASX has been uneven, with tech notably weak. ^[36]

Seasonality watchers in the US are also debating whether a traditional Santa rally is emerging or staying patchy—important because offshore risk appetite often sets the tone for Australia. ^[37]

Theme 2: Australian rate expectations are the “hidden hand” in sector performance

The RBA’s hawkish hold created a clear market filter: sectors priced for easy financial conditions remain vulnerable if investors keep re-pricing the chance of hikes in 2026. ^[38]

That’s why Tuesday’s consumer confidence and Wednesday’s fiscal update matter—both can shift the rate narrative without a single RBA speech.

Theme 3: Commodities momentum is real—and the ASX is built to feel it

The ASX’s index structure means commodities are not just a “sector story”—they can be the index.

MarketIndex’s weekend wrap leaned into the idea that commodities are already in a powerful upswing, with investors increasingly framing resources as a 2026 leadership theme. ^[39] FNArena similarly emphasised strong performance in materials and record highs in parts of the metals complex, arguing resources remain a key area of broker attention. ^[40]

Bigger picture: where strategists see the ASX heading beyond Christmas

For longer-horizon context, AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver argued this week that 2025 delivered strong returns overall, and flagged a base case for the RBA to hold at 3.6% with the ASX 200 ending 2026 around 8,900—while warning volatility risks remain high. ^[41]

You don’t need to agree with the target to see the message: macro volatility is likely to remain the price of admission, especially as markets juggle inflation persistence, divergent central banks, and geopolitics.

Bottom line for ASX investors this week

The ASX enters the week of 15–19 December 2025 with improving momentum at the index level, but a market structure that’s increasingly defined by sector rotation: resources and banks strong, local tech weak, and macro headlines driving day-to-day direction. ^[42]

If you’re watching for what could actually change the tone, focus on:

Consumer sentiment (Tue) and MYEFO (Wed) for the domestic rate narrative, ^[43]
China activity data (Mon) for miners and bulk commodity sentiment, ^[44]
and a dense cluster of US data + BoJ risk (Wed–Fri) for global volatility and the USD. ^[45]

This article is market commentary and does not constitute financial advice.