Sydney, 15 December 2025 — Australian AI-linked shares started the week in a risk-off mood, as the global “AI trade” wobbled again and investors questioned whether massive spending on chips, cloud and data centres is translating into clear near‑term returns. The S&P/ASX 200 finished down 0.7% at 8,635 after a weak lead from Wall Street. [1]
While “AI bubble” talk dominated global headlines, the local story was more nuanced: the selloff didn’t hit every AI exposure equally. Australian data-centre and connectivity plays remained under pressure, a handful of high‑multiple software names stayed volatile, and at least one defence-tech stock with explicit AI positioning pushed higher.
Below is what mattered for ASX AI stocks today (15 December 2025) — including the key news catalysts, today’s market read-through, and the forecasts and analyst commentary shaping the next move.
What moved Australian AI stocks today
The day’s risk tone was set offshore. Over the weekend and into Monday, markets across Asia tracked a sharp Friday selloff in US tech after investors reacted to fresh concerns about AI spending, profitability and balance‑sheet strain — a theme that continues to swing sentiment from “AI revolution” to “AI reckoning” in a matter of sessions. [2]
In Australia, the headline index move was driven more by miners and commodities, but AI‑exposed tech names were still in focus:
- Data-centre providers were singled out as “unloved,” with Megaport down 3.9% and NextDC down 1.0% on the session, according to ABC’s market wrap. [3]
- Pre-market commentary also pointed to “tech weakness” tied to concerns around AI infrastructure, debt and ROI, flagging local tech names as potentially “oversold,” even if “the path of least resistance remains lower.” [4]
This split personality — macro fear, but selective buying — is increasingly typical of the AI theme late in 2025. Investors are still chasing structural winners, but they’re demanding more proof on margins, cash flow and payback periods.
Why “AI bubble” fears are back in the driver’s seat
Two related worries resurfaced:
1) The cost of AI is rising faster than confidence in returns
Recent updates from major US AI‑linked companies reignited doubts about how quickly huge capital expenditure will convert into profits.
Reuters reported that investors were rattled by Oracle’s increased capex expectations and concerns about debt-funded spending, while Broadcom’s margin commentary added to the fear that AI hardware can be less lucrative than headline revenue growth suggests. [5]
IG’s weekly market note published today described the same dynamic: Oracle’s results “catalysed” a new wave of selling pressure, while Broadcom faced worries about margin compression and order-book clarity — even after strong top‑line performance. [6]
2) Markets are repricing the “AI infrastructure” trade
AI isn’t just chips and software. It’s also power, land, cooling, grid upgrades — and these inputs are becoming a bigger part of the investment story.
A Reuters Breakingviews analysis published today argued that utilities and grid investment are being re-rated as “scarce vehicles to ride the AI boom,” citing estimates that global data centre power consumption may grow around 17% per year (2022–2030) and that AI server farms could become a meaningful share of power demand by 2030. [7]
For Australia’s ASX‑listed AI infrastructure plays, this matters because the market is increasingly pricing constraints (energy, build timelines, funding costs) just as much as it prices demand (GPU clusters, sovereign AI, hyperscale workloads).
ASX AI stocks to watch: today’s key names and the latest narrative
Australia doesn’t have a single mega-cap “pure AI” champion comparable to Nvidia or Microsoft, but the ASX has several AI-adjacent and AI-enabling companies that tend to move when the global AI mood shifts.
NEXTDC (ASX: NXT): the sovereign AI infrastructure proxy — and a sentiment barometer
NextDC has become one of the clearest ASX expressions of the AI infrastructure buildout. Even on a down day, it remains central to the Australian AI narrative because of its recent tie-up with OpenAI.
- NextDC announced earlier this month it had agreed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with OpenAI to collaborate on planning and developing a hyperscale AI campus and large-scale GPU “supercluster” at its Sydney S7 site — framed as sovereign infrastructure aligned with Australia’s critical infrastructure framework. [8]
- Today, despite that longer-term tailwind, NextDC was still part of the local “AI infrastructure” pressure point, with ABC noting it remained “unloved” on the session. [9]
- A live pricing snapshot on Investing.com put NextDC at around A$13.37 on 15 December, with the day range quoted around A$13.09–A$13.40 (delayed). [10]
What investors are debating now: NextDC’s opportunity is obvious — AI workloads are compute-hungry and latency-sensitive. But the market is also looking through to execution: capex intensity, financing conditions, power access, and how quickly utilisation and pricing can rise enough to justify valuation.
Megaport (ASX: MP1): AI’s connectivity layer, still treated as “risk asset”
Megaport isn’t an “AI model” company, but it sits in the plumbing of cloud and data-centre interconnection — a key piece of AI deployment. On days like today, it trades like a high‑beta tech sentiment proxy.
- ABC highlighted Megaport fell 3.9% while data-centre providers stayed under pressure. [11]
What to watch: If global AI fears persist, high‑multiple “infrastructure enablers” can be sold down quickly. If sentiment stabilises, these names can also bounce hard — especially into year-end positioning.
DroneShield (ASX: DRO): AI defence-tech bucking the trend
One of the more interesting divergences in Australia’s AI universe today was DroneShield, which positions itself directly around AI-enabled protection against drones and autonomous threats.
- MarketIndex describes DroneShield as providing “Artificial Intelligence based platforms” for protection against threats such as drones and autonomous systems. [12]
- Investing.com’s historical pricing shows DroneShield closed at A$2.30 on 15 Dec, up 10.58%, with heavy volume (over 15 million shares) and an intraday range around A$2.08–A$2.30. [13]
- FT’s market data summary also recorded DroneShield closing at 2.30 with the same day range. [14]
Why it matters for the “AI stocks ASX” conversation: DroneShield is a reminder that “AI stocks” don’t all depend on hyperscaler capex cycles. Some are levered to defence procurement and security needs — and can outperform even when the broader AI complex is derating.
BrainChip (ASX: BRN): high-volatility “edge AI” still in a downtrend
BrainChip is often cited as Australia’s AI chip / edge inference bet. Today’s action and the latest technical reads show why the stock remains polarising.
- StockInvest reported BrainChip fell around 1.82% on Monday, 15 Dec, to roughly A$0.162, marking several down sessions in a row and flagging sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages (despite some mixed indicators). [15]
- Investing.com’s technical page also showed a “Strong Sell” daily signal based on moving averages and other indicators. [16]
- On the fundamental outlook, Simply Wall St’s latest analysis noted revenue growth expectations (fast growth rates are cited), while also highlighting that earnings are still expected to remain weak/negative in the near term. [17]
The 2026 question: Is the market ready to pay up again for long-duration AI hardware stories that are still proving commercial scale? In the current environment, investors are demanding clearer evidence of adoption and sustainable unit economics — not just a compelling technology narrative.
Appen (ASX: APX): AI training-data specialist with a “valuation vs recovery” tug-of-war
Appen is a more direct AI play than most ASX software names because it operates across data sourcing, annotation and evaluation for AI systems.
- MarketIndex’s company snapshot describes Appen as a “global market leader in data for the AI Lifecycle,” including data sourcing and model evaluation. [18]
- Investing.com listed Appen around A$0.70 on 15 December (delayed), with a day range around A$0.69–A$0.74. [19]
- For forecast watchers, Stockopedia cited an analyst consensus target price of about A$1.20 (well above the last close it referenced) and provided forward EPS expectations (still negative), underscoring that the “recovery” debate is alive. [20]
Why Appen is back on radars: In a market that’s increasingly selective, “picks and shovels” AI names can attract attention — but only if they can show durable demand and margins in a world where model training is becoming more automated and cost-sensitive.
“AI adopters” in ASX software: WiseTech, Xero, TechnologyOne, Pro Medicus
Not every ASX tech leader is an “AI stock,” but several large, widely held software companies are increasingly judged on whether AI boosts productivity, retention and pricing power — or just adds cost.
MarketIndex’s morning note explicitly grouped major local tech names — including TechnologyOne (TNE), Pro Medicus (PME), WiseTech (WTC) and Xero (XRO) — into the cohort being hit by valuation derating and broader tech pessimism, while also arguing they are starting to look “oversold.” [21]
In practice, these names can behave like “quality AI beneficiaries” when the market is optimistic, and like “expensive duration assets” when rates and risk appetite move against them.
The day’s underappreciated Australia factor: rates and the RBA narrative
While the global AI mood is the loudest driver, local rates still matter — especially for growth-heavy, long-duration tech and AI names.
IG’s weekly note published today flagged that the RBA has held for a third consecutive meeting amid elevated inflation and that the board “did not consider rate cuts,” focusing instead on potential upside inflation risks. [22]
That stance doesn’t just impact bank shares and housing. It hits the discount rate applied to future earnings — and that’s one reason ASX AI and tech stocks have struggled to regain the easy multiple expansion seen earlier in the AI cycle.
Forecasts and analyst themes shaping the next move in ASX AI stocks
Across today’s coverage, the “forecast” story isn’t one specific price target — it’s a set of market expectations that are converging around three themes:
1) The market is demanding ROI, not just AI growth
Commentary today repeatedly returned to the same point: investors are less willing to reward spending without a timeline to returns. Reuters described growing scrutiny of AI-linked capex decisions and how markets are reacting more harshly to debt and profitability concerns. [23]
2) The “AI trade” may broaden beyond pure tech
Even if you stay bullish on AI adoption, strategists are increasingly arguing the biggest 2026 winners may not be the most crowded AI tickers. A Business Insider report citing Goldman Sachs suggested cyclicals could benefit from a 2026 growth acceleration, while tech earnings growth may moderate somewhat. [24]
For ASX investors, that sets up a tug-of-war: do you hold AI/tech through volatility, or rotate toward sectors that could benefit indirectly from the AI buildout (materials for grids, industrials, energy infrastructure)?
3) Power and infrastructure are becoming the “hidden” AI bottleneck
Reuters Breakingviews made the case that the AI boom is feeding a utilities and grid investment cycle because data centres and AI compute are energy-intensive. [25]
That matters directly for Australian AI infrastructure names (data centres, connectivity), and indirectly for the economics of “sovereign AI” projects, where power availability and cost can shape returns as much as demand does.
What to watch next for ASX AI shares
If you’re tracking AI stocks on the ASX into the final full trading weeks of 2025, today’s news flow suggests a clear checklist:
- Global AI capex headlines: Anything from hyperscalers, chip suppliers, and major cloud players that changes the market’s confidence in the ROI timeline can move Australian AI sentiment quickly. [26]
- Local AI infrastructure execution: Investors will watch for concrete milestones on Australia’s next wave of hyperscale builds and GPU capacity planning, especially after NextDC’s OpenAI-linked MoU. [27]
- Rates and central banks: With the RBA signalling caution on inflation and global markets watching major central bank decisions, duration-sensitive ASX tech and AI names remain exposed to rate repricing. [28]
- Stock-specific turning points: For smaller, more volatile AI names, technical signals and liquidity can matter as much as fundamentals in the short run — which is why BrainChip’s “strong sell” technical profile and DroneShield’s high-volume surge both stood out today. [29]
Bottom line: AI stocks on the ASX are still a theme — but the market is changing the rules
15 December 2025 reinforced a message investors have been hearing more often in the second half of the year: the AI opportunity is real, but the market is no longer paying “any price” for it.
On the ASX, that means:
- AI infrastructure plays (data centres, connectivity) can be hit hard when global sentiment turns, even if the long-term demand story remains intact. [30]
- AI pure plays (chips, training-data services) are increasingly judged on measurable commercial traction and margin progress, not only on the promise of the technology. [31]
- Non-traditional AI winners — like AI-enabled defence and security — can still outperform when the broader AI complex is being repriced. [32]
This article is general information and not financial advice. Markets and prices can change quickly and some quotes are delayed.
References
1. www.abc.net.au, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.abc.net.au, 4. www.marketindex.com.au, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.ig.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.nextdc.com, 9. www.abc.net.au, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.abc.net.au, 12. www.marketindex.com.au, 13. www.investing.com, 14. markets.ft.com, 15. stockinvest.us, 16. au.investing.com, 17. simplywall.st, 18. www.marketindex.com.au, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.stockopedia.com, 21. www.marketindex.com.au, 22. www.ig.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.businessinsider.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.nextdc.com, 28. www.ig.com, 29. au.investing.com, 30. www.abc.net.au, 31. stockinvest.us, 32. www.investing.com
