If you’re waking up on Friday, 26 December 2025 (Boxing Day) expecting the Australian stock market (ASX) to ring the opening bell, there’s one critical detail to know first: the ASX cash market is closed today for Boxing Day. Australian Securities Exchange
That doesn’t mean investors should switch off. The market pause creates a short “information gap” where global moves in equities, commodities, FX, and rates can build up — and then reprice quickly when trading resumes.
Below is what matters most before Australia’s next session, based on the latest news, market snapshots, and analyst commentary published over the past several days.
Is the ASX open today, 26.12.2025?
No. The ASX cash market is closed on Boxing Day (Friday, 26 December 2025). Australian Securities Exchange
The ASX trading calendar also shows:
- Wednesday, 24 December 2025: Last business day before Christmas Day — close early (normal trading ceases 14:10 Sydney time) Australian Securities Exchange
- Thursday, 25 December 2025: Closed (Christmas Day) Australian Securities Exchange
- Friday, 26 December 2025: Closed (Boxing Day) Australian Securities Exchange
ABC’s market coverage pointed to the next ASX operating day as Monday, 29 December 2025. ABC
What about ASX futures (ASX 24)?
ASX 24 is also closed on Boxing Day (26 December 2025). Australian Securities Exchange
So today is less about “pre-open positioning” and more about tracking offshore signals that can shape sentiment into Monday.
Where the ASX left off: Christmas Eve wrap
Australia went into the break with a mild pullback after a shortened session.
- The ASX 200 fell 0.4% (down 33 points) to 8,763 on Christmas Eve, and finished the week 1.6% higher overall. ABC
- Mining was the standout, up 0.1%, while most other sectors ended lower. ABC
- Financials slipped 0.4%, with the big four banks down between 0.2% and 1%. ABC
The tone into year-end remains a familiar one for the ASX: resources supported by metals, offset by valuation sensitivity in banks and growth/healthcare when rates expectations firm.
Stock-specific headlines to remember when trading resumes
A few company updates stood out in the final hour of the last session before the shutdown:
- DroneShield: said it secured a $6.2 million contract for counter-drone technology for an “Asia Pacific military-end customer”. ABC
- Lendlease: rose after winning the Sydney Metro Hunter Street West Over Station Development, including the station build and a major commercial tower near Wynyard. ABC
- Monash IVF: fell sharply after a consortium led by Genesis Capital Investment Management and Soul Pattswithdrew a bid (reported as 80 cents per share). ABC
- Seven West Media / Southern Cross Media: merger approved by the NSW Supreme Court; Seven West’s shares were set to be suspended and de-listed process to follow. ABC
When markets reopen, these names can see follow-through moves — especially in thin holiday liquidity, when price action can be more volatile than usual.
The global cue that matters most: Wall Street’s “Santa rally” tone
Because U.S. markets were closed on Christmas Day, the most recent full U.S. lead into the ASX break came from Wednesday, 24 December — a holiday-shortened session that still managed to deliver record closes.
Reuters reported that:
- The Dow rose 0.60% to 48,731.16
- The S&P 500 gained 0.32% to 6,932.05 (record close)
- The Nasdaq added 0.22% to 23,613.31 Reuters
Volumes were also notably light (a normal feature of Christmas week), which can exaggerate moves — up or down. Reuters
Why it matters for the ASX: when Australia returns on Monday, traders will be reacting to multiple sessions of offshore news and price moves that happened while the ASX was shut — particularly if U.S. equities extend gains or reverse sharply when they reopen.
Rates and macro: the “higher-for-longer vs cuts” tug-of-war isn’t over
U.S. growth stayed strong — and that complicates the rate outlook
A major macro data point hitting markets in the lead-up to Christmas was U.S. GDP.
Reuters reported U.S. third-quarter GDP grew at a 4.3% annualised rate, with consumer spending up 3.5%, and exports rebounding (while noting inflation pressures also heated up in the quarter). Reuters
Even with that resilience, Reuters also noted markets were still pricing rate cuts next year (and the U.S. equity rally has leaned on that expectation). Reuters
ASX angle: Australian banks, property names, and rate-sensitive growth stocks can all swing with global yields — especially if markets start to question how many cuts are realistic.
Australia’s key macro watch: inflation and the RBA path
On the domestic side, rate expectations have been a dominant theme.
ABC’s market blog said:
- The RBA’s December-quarter inflation numbers (headline) are due 28 January ABC
- Markets were pricing around a 28% chance of a 25bp hike at the RBA’s 3 February meeting (to 3.85%) ABC
Reuters coverage of the RBA meeting minutes described the board as preparing the ground for a hike if inflation doesn’t recede as hoped, reinforcing that inflation surprises remain the core risk to the 2026 policy path. Reuters
A structural change investors should understand: the new “complete monthly CPI”
If you follow Australia macro closely, one technical but important shift is already in motion.
The RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy technical note explains:
- The complete monthly CPI commenced with October 2025 data released on 26 November, replacing the quarterly CPI as the primary measure of headline inflation Reserve Bank of Australia
- During the transition, the RBA expects to keep focusing on quarterly trimmed mean measures for underlying inflation for a time, while monthly seasonal patterns mature Reserve Bank of Australia
This matters because it can change the “rhythm” of market-moving inflation surprises — potentially creating more frequent repricing events across bank stocks, REITs, and the AUD.
Commodities: metals are doing the heavy lifting into year-end
Australia’s market is resource-heavy, so commodities are often the fastest path to understanding ASX index pressure points.
Gold and silver: records are rewriting playbooks
Reuters reported gold hit an all-time high of $4,525.18/oz before easing, while silver also notched record levels in the same burst. Reuters
This has obvious read-through for Australian-listed gold producers — but the bigger macro point is that a metals surge often reflects:
- expectations of lower real yields over time, and/or
- a bid for “hard assets” during uncertainty.
Copper: record pricing can turbocharge ASX miners — but watch the positioning
Copper also pushed to record territory in late-December trading, helped by speculative flows, according to Reuters coverage. Reuters
ABC noted that copper trading at record levels helped keep the mining sector positive even as the broader ASX fell on Christmas Eve. ABC
Iron ore: steady-to-firm prices, but China’s signals are mixed
Iron ore didn’t deliver the same fireworks as precious metals, but it remains the key driver for Australia’s biggest miners.
- ABC’s snapshot cited iron ore at $104.20/tonne (down 0.5%) into the close of the shortened session. ABC
- Trading Economics showed iron ore around $106.94/tonne in the same period. Trading Economics
On China, Reuters commentary flagged a tension investors keep circling:
- China’s steel output was expected to slump toward a multi-year low, yet
- iron ore imports were on track for a record year — implying restocking and expectations that stimulus eventually lifts demand. Reuters
ASX angle: iron ore is the “index engine.” Even small changes can ripple across BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and the broader ASX 200.
Oil: around $62 Brent, with geopolitics in the mix
Reuters reported Brent settling around $62.24 on Dec 24, with the market balancing U.S. data and geopolitical/supply disruption risks. Reuters
Energy names on the ASX can be highly reactive when trading resumes, particularly if oil moves sharply while Australia is closed.
FX: the Australian dollar is back above 67 US cents — and that matters for earnings
The AUD was one of the standout moves into the break.
ABC reported the Australian dollar around 67.05 US cents, described as the highest since October 2024, supported by commodities and shifting RBA expectations. ABC
Reuters also showed AUD around $0.6705 in late-December trading. Reuters
Why this matters for the ASX when it reopens:
- A stronger AUD can pressure exporters’ translated earnings (and sometimes weighs on internationally-exposed large caps).
- It can also reflect improved risk appetite — but if it’s driven by rate expectations, the “winners” and “losers” can diverge sharply across sectors.
Policy and geopolitical headlines: chips, tariffs, and Asia rates
Two additional themes on the radar in the final pre-holiday news flow:
- ABC reported the U.S. administration said it would impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports but delay action until June 2027 (with the tariff rate to be announced at least 30 days in advance). ABC
- Reuters reported Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated readiness to keep raising rates if conditions meet the baseline scenario, after Japan’s policy rate was lifted to 0.75% (with the next BOJ meeting noted for Jan 22–23). Reuters
For Australian investors, those headlines can feed into:
- the AUD/JPY and risk sentiment (carry-trade dynamics), and
- the broader “trade policy uncertainty” backdrop affecting tech supply chains and market volatility.
The quiet but real catalyst: Australia’s data calendar is basically on pause
One reason holiday weeks can feel “all macro, no local” is that domestic data flow slows dramatically.
The ABS stated it would be closed from 12:00pm on 24 December 2025 and reopen 9:00am on 2 January 2026, with no statistical releases during that period. Australian Bureau of Statistics
That makes offshore cues even more influential into the first ASX sessions after the break.
What to watch when the ASX reopens (Monday, 29 December)
With the market closed today, the most practical approach is to treat Boxing Day as a setup day for Monday’s open. Here are the themes most likely to dominate the first hour back:
1) “Catch-up” moves to global risk sentiment
If U.S. equities extend the rally (or abruptly fade it) once they reopen, Australia will need to reprice several days of risk appetite quickly.
2) Banks vs yields: valuation sensitivity remains high
The Christmas Eve tape already showed banks acting as a drag while miners held up. ABC
If bond yields rise on stronger growth data, banks can behave in conflicting ways:
- higher yields can support margins,
- but can also tighten financial conditions and pressure valuations.
3) Metals momentum: gold/copper strength vs “too crowded” positioning
Record metals prices can keep resources in focus, but the bigger question is whether positioning has become one-sided in thin holiday conditions.
4) AUD strength: a tailwind for some, a headwind for others
Expect analysts and traders to quickly re-sort the ASX by:
- “AUD beneficiaries” (importers / some retailers), and
- “AUD headwinds” (exporters and global earners).
5) The next real domestic catalyst is inflation — and the clock is ticking
Even though the ASX is focused on year-end flows now, the market is already looking forward to:
- Jan 28 inflation data ABC
- Feb 3 RBA meeting, where markets have priced a non-trivial hike probability ABC
This article is general market commentary intended for news and information purposes, not financial advice.
