Australia’s share market has delivered a low‑key but eventful session on Thursday, 11 December 2025, with the S&P/ASX 200 edging 0.06% higher to close around 8,584 points after trading between 8,574 and 8,659. [1]
Behind that modest index move was a burst of activity in a handful of high‑profile names. By traded volume, today’s most active stocks on the Australian market were:
- National Storage REIT (ASX:NSR)
- DroneShield Ltd (ASX:DRO)
- Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX:LTR)
- Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX:PLS)
- Telstra Group Ltd (ASX:TLS) [2]
Each of these stocks was trading on heavy volume as investors reacted to major corporate news, sector‑level shifts and fast‑changing macro signals after last night’s US Federal Reserve rate cut and a surprisingly weak Australian jobs report. [3]
Below is a detailed look at why these were the ASX’s most active stocks today, what the latest news, forecasts and analysis say about them, and what themes they reveal about the market heading into 2026.
Market backdrop: Fed cuts, soft jobs, and a cautious ASX rally
Two big macro stories framed today’s session:
1. US Federal Reserve delivers another 25 bp cut
Overnight, the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in its December meeting, taking the target range to 3.50–3.75%. [4]
Key points from the Fed coverage:
- This is the third rate cut in 2025, but officials signalled a likely pause and only one additional cut pencilled in for 2026. [5]
- Markets interpreted Chair Jerome Powell’s tone as less hawkish than feared, pushing the US dollar lower and global risk assets higher into today’s Asian session. [6]
That shift in global rates helped fuel early gains for the ASX 200 and supported appetite for resources, yield plays and selected growth names, as highlighted by several local market commentaries this morning. [7]
2. Australian jobs data: employment drops but jobless rate steady
Locally, attention centred on the November labour force report:
- Employment fell by 23,100 jobs in November – the biggest monthly drop in nine months.
- Full‑time jobs fell by 56,500, partly offset by gains in part‑time work.
- Despite this, the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, with participation dipping to 66.7%. [8]
Economists quoted by Reuters described a labour market that is “gradually losing momentum” rather than collapsing, something that reduces pressure for an immediate RBA hike but doesn’t rule one out in 2026. [9]
The ABC’s live markets blog captured how traders digested the data: the ASX 200 was up around 0.6% and near 8,630 at midday before giving back some gains as rate‑hike odds for February ticked higher. [10]
Against this backdrop, here’s how today’s volume leaders stood out.
1. National Storage REIT (ASX:NSR): Takeover frenzy drives record activity
Price & volume today
- Last trade: ~A$2.79, intraday range A$2.78–2.79
- Move: roughly +0.2% on the day
- Volume: ~42 million securities, making NSR the most heavily traded stock on the ASX today. [11]
Why NSR is so active
National Storage REIT has become ground zero for Australian M&A enthusiasm:
- On 7–8 December, NSR agreed to be acquired by a Brookfield–GIC consortium in a deal valuing the REIT at about A$4.0–4.02 billion. [12]
- Under the scheme, securityholders are slated to receive A$2.86 in cash per stapled security, reflecting a ~26.5% premium to late‑November prices. [13]
- Reuters notes NSR’s share price jumped to a record high around A$2.81 when the deal was announced and remains one of the ASX 200’s standout performers into this week. [14]
With the stock trading just below the cash offer price, today’s huge turnover reflects arbitrage funds, index investors and yield hunters repositioning ahead of the expected completion in the second quarter of 2026. [15]
What analysts are saying
- Morningstar has lifted its fair value estimate to A$2.86, essentially aligning it with the bid and signalling that the takeover price now anchors valuation. [16]
- Simply Wall St’s latest check finds NSR passing only 2 of 6 valuation tests, suggesting limited further undervaluation at current levels, despite some models that still see it trading below their intrinsic value estimates. [17]
NSR outlook: what to watch
Key upside driver:
- Progress of the scheme implementation: regulatory approvals, no rival bid emerging, and a supportive independent expert report.
Risks:
- The usual deal risks – regulatory holdups, a change in market conditions, or a competing bid that fails to materialise after raising expectations.
For many investors, NSR has now effectively transitioned from a growth‑and‑income REIT to a “cash‑equivalent” takeover play, with the market debating only the probability and timing of the deal closing rather than long‑term fundamentals.
2. DroneShield Ltd (ASX:DRO): High‑beta defence play under governance cloud
Price & volume today
- Last trade: ~A$2.05, day range A$2.05–2.36
- Move: roughly ‑9.3% on the day
- Volume: ~18.5 million shares, making DroneShield the second‑most active ASX stock today. [18]
That price action caps an extraordinary stretch where the defence technology company has become one of the most talked‑about and heavily traded names on the entire ASX, especially among retail investors. [19]
How we got here: from market darling to crash‑and‑burn
Over the past few months, DroneShield has experienced:
- A spectacular rally earlier in 2025, driven by surging defence demand and a ballooning order book. [20]
- A subsequent share price collapse of about 70–71% since October, following governance concerns, ASX disclosure questions and heavy director share sales. [21]
- A series of articles detailing “governance turmoil”, board‑level reviews of incentive structures and attempts by management to restore investor confidence. [22]
Despite this, the stock has remained one of the most traded by self‑directed investors, according to recent platform data, even as some institutional holders have stepped back. [23]
Today’s trading vs short‑term forecasts
Short‑term technical services like StockInvest had flagged a “fair opening price” around A$2.19 for 11 December, implying modest upside from prior close. [24]
Instead, intense selling pressure pushed the share price sharply lower intraday to ~A$2.05, underscoring that sentiment rather than models is in control right now. [25]
Fundamental and valuation snapshot
DroneShield’s valuation metrics reflect a high‑growth, high‑risk profile:
- Enterprise value to revenue of around 17x,
- Extremely stretched and negative EV/EBITDA multiples,
- A PEG ratio above 5x, indicating that even after the sell‑off, the stock still prices in substantial growth. [26]
Analysts and commentators highlight three competing narratives:
- Structural bull case: demand for counter‑drone and defence tech is booming globally; DroneShield’s technology and contract pipeline could justify premium multiples over time. [27]
- Governance and execution risk: ASX queries, incentive‑plan changes, director selling and rapid sentiment swings raise questions about risk controls and disclosure culture. [28]
- Speculative rebound thesis: some market commentators argue that after a 70% fall, even a partial normalisation of sentiment could deliver outsized gains – but only if operational progress and governance reform become clearer. [29]
DroneShield: what to watch next
Investors tracking DRO are focusing on:
- Outcome of governance and incentive‑plan reviews and any further commentary from regulators or the ASX. [30]
- New defence contracts or repeat orders, particularly from US and allied governments, which could validate the long‑term earnings story. [31]
- Whether trading volumes normalise or remain elevated, which would signal how much speculative capital is still circling the stock.
3. Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR): Lithium offtake deals spark a tug‑of‑war on value
Price & volume today
- Last trade: ~A$1.49, range A$1.485–1.575
- Move: about ‑3.7% on the day
- Volume: ~14.4 million shares, placing Liontown firmly among the ASX’s busiest names. [32]
Today’s catalyst: Canmax/Chinese offtake and lithium supply narrative
Liontown has been in focus after securing a key offtake deal with Chinese group Canmax, further de‑risking the sales outlook for its Kathleen Valley lithium project:
- Domestic mining media report that Liontown has struck a two‑year lithium supply deal with a major Chinese partner, strengthening its links into the global EV battery supply chain. [33]
- Simply Wall St notes that the new Canmax offtake significantly improves earnings visibility and customer diversification, though execution risk at Kathleen Valley and lithium price volatility remain central concerns. [34]
Earlier in the week, the stock rallied more than 15% on the news, drawing in momentum traders and sector‑focused funds. [35] Today’s pull‑back appears to reflect profit‑taking and a cooler read‑through from valuation models.
What the analysts are saying
According to Simply Wall St’s Liontown narrative:
- The firm’s internal projections point to A$725 million in revenue and A$62.7 million in earnings by 2028, if ramp‑up goes to plan.
- Their discounted cash‑flow work suggests a fair value around A$1.07 per share, implying roughly 30% downside from recent prices near A$1.53–1.60 after the rally. [36]
In other words, the long‑term opportunity is real, but one widely followed valuation framework argues that the market may now be pricing in a best‑case execution scenario.
Liontown: key risks and watchpoints
- Project execution: underground ramp‑up at Kathleen Valley must deliver the volumes underpinning multiple offtake agreements. [37]
- Lithium price path: softer lithium prices, high cost stockpiles and rising operating costs could pressure near‑term cash flow if the commodity cycle doesn’t cooperate. [38]
- China exposure: deeper integration into Chinese supply chains brings both volume upside and geopolitical / policy risk.
For now, heavy volume and a small price pull‑back today suggest the market is rebalancing between short‑term excitement about the Canmax deal and a more sober look at valuation.
4. Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS): Sector bellwether in a hot lithium tape
Price & volume today
- Last trade (ASX volume leaders table): ~A$4.16, range A$4.155–4.34
- Move: roughly ‑1.1% on the day
- Volume: ~12.6 million shares, enough to rank PLS among the five most active ASX stocks. [39]
Pilbara Minerals remains a bellwether for hard‑rock lithium, and today’s turnover underscores how tightly the market is trading the sector around Fed expectations, China data and EV‑demand headlines. [40]
Short‑term trading and technical forecasts
StockInvest’s latest technical note:
- Flags Pilbara Minerals as a “buy” in its trading system,
- Projects a “fair opening price” of about A$4.18 on 11 December, slightly above previous close, consistent with a constructive near‑term trend. [41]
In reality, PLS traded broadly in that region, but intraday swings mirrored profit‑taking and cross‑currents across global commodities after the Fed decision.
Longer‑term analyst expectations
ValueInvesting.io’s aggregation of broker forecasts shows:
- A 12‑month average target around A$3.08,
- Based on a wide range of estimates (A$2.12–A$4.36), and
- A consensus rating of “Hold” at current levels. [42]
That implies many analysts expect some degree of mean reversion after the sector’s big run, even as long‑term structural demand for lithium remains intact.
Why PLS remained so active today
Key factors behind today’s heavy trade include:
- Spill‑over from Liontown news: Offtake announcements and lithium‑supply commentary often ripple through the entire sector, with Pilbara seen as a core holding for lithium exposure. [43]
- Retail attention to “barnstorming” lithium stocks: A new Motley Fool piece, published today, highlighted a fast‑moving lithium explorer whose flagship project lies close to Pilbara’s Pilgangoora operation – reinforcing the sense that the broader region remains a hot exploration and investment theatre. [44]
Put simply, PLS is where lithium bulls and bears meet, and on a macro‑heavy day like this, that translates into large volumes as traders reposition around both company and sector narratives.
5. Telstra Group (ASX:TLS): Defensive yield play in a shifting rate landscape
Price & volume today
- Last trade: ~A$4.90–4.90+, intraday range A$4.87–4.92
- Move: marginal, around ‑0.1% on the day
- Volume: ~11.5 million shares, enough to put Telstra among today’s most actively traded stocks. [45]
Why Telstra is on the radar
Telstra has quietly been one of 2025’s stronger large‑cap performers, with its share price up around 20%+ for the year, comfortably beating the index as investors hunted for reliable dividends. [46]
In the last few days:
- Telstra has featured in several ASX outlook pieces and stockwatch lists, often in the context of “defensive” or “dividend” ideas. [47]
- Commentary notes that Telstra paid A$0.19 per share in dividends in FY2025, implying a yield in the 3.8–3.9% range at recent prices around A$4.90–4.95. [48]
On a day when the Fed has cut and the local jobs data has nudged RBA hike odds higher, investors are re‑assessing how much they’re willing to pay for Telstra’s income stream versus growth names. [49]
The valuation debate: wildly divergent models
One striking theme in recent Telstra analysis is just how far apart valuation models are:
- A Peter Lynch–style fair value model on ValueInvesting.io estimates intrinsic value at ~A$0.97, implying the stock is hugely overvalued at current levels – a result of that particular formula’s conservative assumptions for mature telcos. [50]
- At the other extreme, a DCF model on mlq.ai pegs fair value around A$11 per share, more than double current prices, based on robust long‑term cash‑flow projections and modest discount rates. [51]
This spread underlines that Telstra’s valuation is highly sensitive to assumptions about:
- Growth in mobile and fixed‑line cash flows,
- Capital intensity and 5G/FTTP investment needs,
- Future dividend payout ratios, and
- The trajectory of risk‑free interest rates.
Why volume spiked today
Today’s elevated trading in TLS likely reflects:
- Portfolio rebalancing after the Fed cut, as global yield and telecom funds tweak exposures, and
- Local investors reacting to the jobs data and shifting RBA expectations, deciding whether Telstra still offers attractive risk‑adjusted income versus cash and government bonds. [52]
What today’s most active ASX stocks tell us
Taken together, NSR, DRO, LTR, PLS and TLS paint a clear picture of where capital is concentrating on the ASX right now:
- M&A and “event‑driven” trades are back
- The NSR takeover shows global capital is willing to pay up for high‑quality Australian assets, especially in storage and infrastructure‑adjacent property. [53]
- High‑octane growth + governance risk = extreme volume
- DroneShield illustrates how fast sentiment can flip in small‑mid caps where governance questions collide with big thematic tailwinds like defence and security tech. [54]
- Lithium and energy transition remain at the heart of the ASX story
- Liontown and Pilbara’s heavy trading highlight how EV metals are still central to Australia’s equity narrative, even as price volatility and valuation debates intensify. [55]
- Defensive yield is still in demand, but more carefully priced
- Telstra’s presence in the most‑active list confirms that income stocks remain core holdings, though investors are increasingly discriminating about what they’ll pay as the rate path becomes more uncertain. [56]
- Macro still matters – especially Fed and local data surprises
- Even with stock‑specific headlines, today’s trading patterns were shaped by Fed policy, US dollar moves, and Australia’s cooling labour market, all of which feed directly into valuations, sector rotations and risk appetite. [57]
Key takeaways for ASX investors on 11 December 2025
- Liquidity is clustering around clear narratives – takeovers, lithium, defence and defensives – creating both opportunity and crowding risk.
- Short‑term price targets and “fair value” estimates are diverging meaningfully (especially for names like Telstra, Liontown and DroneShield), underscoring the importance of understanding each model’s assumptions rather than following numbers blindly. [58]
- Macro surprises can quickly re‑price yield and growth stocks, particularly as markets juggle a dovish‑ish Fed with a more hawkish‑leaning RBA.
References
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