ASX Outlook for Monday 1 December 2025: 10 Things to Know Before the Australian Stock Market Opens

Australia’s sharemarket goes into the new week with a tricky mix of good news on global growth, bad news on inflation, and a local housing market that’s booming but increasingly unaffordable. Here’s what investors need to know before the ASX opens on Monday, 1 December 2025, based on the latest data and news up to 29 November 2025.

Key points for the ASX open on 1 December 2025

• ASX 200 ended the week at 8,614.10, up about 2.4% for the week but still down roughly 3% for November, as rising rates fears capped the month’s “Santa rally” hopes.  ^[1]
• Global markets finished Friday firmer: the S&P 500 gained 0.54%, the Dow 0.61% and the Nasdaq 0.65%, helped by growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December.  ^[2]
• S&P/ASX 200 futures last traded around 8,636, a small premium to the cash close, pointing to a cautiously positive open if overseas sentiment holds.  ^[3]
• Australian inflation re‑accelerated to 3.8% in October, with core inflation at 3.3%, sharply reducing the odds of near‑term RBA rate cuts and even reviving talk of future hikes.  ^[4]
• Q3 GDP, dwelling approvals, household spending and the goods trade balance all land this week, making it a data‑heavy backdrop for local equities.  ^[5]
• Gold is back near record highs around US$4,200/oz, and the ASX Gold Index is up more than 100% year to date, keeping gold miners firmly in focus.  ^[6]
• The Australian dollar is hovering near US$0.65, having climbed on stronger‑than‑expected inflation, which supports risk appetite but can squeeze exporters’ margins.  ^[7]
• APRA has announced new caps on very high debt‑to‑income mortgages from early 2026, and house prices rose another 1% in November, leaving housing at record unaffordability – key for banks, REITs and consumer stocks.  ^[8]
• Commodity backdrop is mixed: iron ore is roughly flat around US$105/t, oil remains in a multi‑month downtrend, while industrial metals like copper have bounced.  ^[9]
• The next RBA decision is on 9 December, and markets are increasingly pricing the risk that the Bank may need to tighten again at some point, rather than cut.  ^[10]

Where the ASX 200 finished on Friday 29 November

By the close reported for 29 November 2025, the S&P/ASX 200 sat at 8,614.10, with the All Ordinaries at 8,918.70. That’s a solid 2.35–2.68% gain for the week, yet the index is still down just over 3% for November and a little over 2.5% for the December quarter to date, even while remaining about 5–6% higher year‑to‑date.  ^[11]

Under the surface, the rotation has been stark:

• Materials: up ~5% on the week and ~24% year‑to‑date, helped by firm iron ore and base metals and ongoing optimism around China‑linked demand.  ^[12]
• Gold miners: the ASX Gold Index jumped 8.55% this week and is now up a staggering ~109% in 2025, powered by record‑level bullion prices.  ^[13]
• Information technology: surged almost 6% on the week, but remains deeply in the red for the month (‑11.7%) and quarter (‑19%), reminding investors how volatile high‑growth names can be when rates expectations whipsaw.  ^[14]
• Financials and banks: essentially flat for the week (+0.1% for financials, ‑0.3% for the banks index), but down 7–8% for the month, reflecting concerns about higher funding costs, APRA’s looming lending caps and pressure on margins.  ^[15]
• Energy: was the lone laggard, effectively flat to slightly negative for the week, mirroring weak oil prices.  ^[16]

The upshot: the headline ASX number hides a sharp divergence – resource and gold names are carrying the index, while rate‑sensitive and domestically geared sectors have struggled.

Global market leads: Wall Street, Europe and Asia

Wall Street: post‑holiday drift, but weekly gains

In the US, stocks ended the shortened Thanksgiving week on a firm note. On Friday 28 November, the Dow rose about 0.61%, the S&P 500 0.54% and the Nasdaq 0.65%. All three major indices also notched strong weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up 3.7%, the Nasdaq nearly 5% and the Dow about 3.2%.  ^[17]

The drivers:

• Markets now price roughly an 80–85% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, after softer US data and more dovish commentary from Fed officials.  ^[18]
• A temporary outage at CME’s data centre briefly froze futures trading, highlighting how reliant global markets are on a handful of infrastructure providers, but the disruption was resolved and cash markets still pushed higher.  ^[19]
• Tech stocks rebounded, even as investors continue to fret about stretched AI valuations, which left the Nasdaq still down for the month, despite the week’s rally.  ^[20]

For the ASX, this risk‑on but valuation‑sensitive tone from Wall Street tends to be supportive of local cyclicals and tech at the open – but investors are clearly becoming choosier.

Europe: five months of gains, but momentum slowing

European bourses also finished the week slightly softer but on track for a fifth straight month of gains. The pan‑European STOXX 600 dipped about 0.1% on Friday to around 574–576, yet the month still ended up roughly 0.8%, with energy and mining stocks leading while banks gave back some earlier strength.  ^[21]

Optimism there leans on:

• The same Fed cut narrative that’s boosting US assets.  ^[22]
• Progress in Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks, which has supported European risk assets and weighed on some defence‑ and energy‑related fear trades.  ^[23]

Asia: tough month, better week

Across Asia, equities ended a difficult November on firmer ground. Reuters’ regional wrap notes that the MSCI Asia‑Pacific index slipped around 0.3% on Friday but was up about 2.7% for the week, breaking a four‑week losing streak, as Fed cut bets buoyed risk appetite and drove a rally in Treasuries.  ^[24]

Japanese and Korean benchmarks posted decent weekly gains, while China and Hong Kong were mixed, underscoring ongoing caution around Chinese growth.  ^[25]

Bottom line for Monday:
Global leads into the ASX open are modestly positive – Wall Street finished higher, European and Asian indices logged weekly gains, and bond yields have eased – but concerns about AI froth and slowing growth still lurk in the background.

What futures are saying about the ASX open

The S&P/ASX 200 futures contract last traded near 8,636 on Friday, just above the cash index’s 8,614 close – a tiny premium, equivalent to only a few points of upside.  ^[26]

Other signals:

• The S&P/ASX 200 VIX volatility gauge has drifted down to around 11.4, close to its recent lows, suggesting complacent but not panicked positioning heading into Monday.  ^[27]
• With the CME outage behind markets and US index futures returning to normal trading, there are no obvious structural shocks on the radar as local trade resumes.  ^[28]

That setup points to a steady or slightly higher open, but with plenty of room for the direction to change once local traders start reacting to Australian macro risks and company‑specific headlines.

Inflation, rates and the RBA: the macro story you can’t ignore

The big domestic story heading into December is inflation refusing to go quietly.

• Australia’s October 2025 CPI rose 3.8% year‑on‑year, the fourth straight monthly acceleration and above market expectations of 3.6%.
• Trimmed mean (core) inflation rose to 3.3%, keeping it clearly above the RBA’s 2–3% target band.  ^[29]

The details blame:

• A sharp 37% jump in electricity prices after energy rebates were rolled back in some states, plus higher costs for housing, food and recreation.  ^[30]
• Sticky services inflation near 4%, which tends to be harder to bring down.  ^[31]

The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy already warned that inflation had “picked up” again and was stronger than expected in Q3, largely due to energy and other cost pressures.  ^[32]

Market reaction has been swift:

• Rate‑cut pricing for 2026 has been slashed, with some economists now openly talking about the risk that the cash rate (currently around 3.6%) may need to rise again if inflation doesn’t cool.  ^[33]
• Swap markets and strategy notes point to the RBA being “done cutting this cycle”, and potentially moving back into mild tightening if growth data surprises on the strong side.  ^[34]

And remember: the next RBA meeting is on 8–9 December, with the decision and statement due at 2:30pm AEDT on 9 December – a key event that will sit squarely within this trading week.  ^[35]

Data to watch this week: GDP, housing and spending

According to weekly outlooks from major banks and data providers, it’s a big week for Australian macro numbers:  ^[36]

• Q3 2025 GDP (National Accounts) – due Wednesday 3 December.
  • Consensus forecasts point to quarterly growth around 0.6% and annual growth just above 2%, slightly stronger than earlier feared after surprisingly robust partials.  ^[37]
  • Stronger growth is usually good news for earnings, but right now it risks reinforcing RBA hawkishness if it looks like the economy is running close to capacity while inflation is rising.  ^[38]
• Dwelling approvals and housing indicators – also due this week.  ^[39]
  • These will be watched closely given APRA’s new debt‑to‑income caps and the fast‑rising house prices reported by property consultant Cotality. Reuters reports national home values rose 1% in November, pushing the median to A$888,941 and housing affordability to a record low.  ^[40]
• Household spending indicator & goods trade balance – important for understanding how stretched consumers are and how much the resources sector is propping up growth via exports.  ^[41]

For equities, the key question is “good news or bad news?”:
If growth prints strong, that may support cyclicals and retailers, but it also raises the odds of tighter policy, which is often a headwind for expensive growth stocks, utilities and high‑yield REITs.

Commodities and the Australian dollar: tailwinds and headwinds

Gold near records, metals firm, oil under pressure

From the FNArena “Market in Numbers” update for 29 November:  ^[42]

• Gold: about US$4,189/oz, up 2.8% for the week, 6.3% for November and nearly 60% year‑to‑date.
• Silver: around US$53/oz, up 5.6% on the week and ~76% year‑to‑date.
• Copper: roughly US$5.16/lb, gaining around 4% on the week and more than 25% in 2025.
• Iron ore: about US$104–105/t, slightly higher on the week but basically flat year‑to‑date.
• Oil: WTI near US$59 and Brent about US$63, both down over 13–15% year‑to‑date, even after a small weekly bounce.

Strategists at Deutsche Bank and others have recently raised their gold price forecasts, with some now talking about gold approaching US$5,000/oz by 2026, citing persistent central‑bank buying and strong ETF demand.  ^[43]

Implications for the ASX:

• Gold miners (e.g. Newcrest’s successor entities, Northern Star, Evolution) remain levered to this theme and have already delivered outsized returns. With the ASX Gold Index up ~109% in 2025, fresh buyers should be aware that positioning is crowded and volatility high.  ^[44]
• Diversified miners (BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue) benefit from stable iron ore and stronger copper, but are also highly sensitive to any negative surprises from Chinese data or trade headlines.  ^[45]
• Energy stocks are battling the double whammy of weak oil prices and rising climate‑transition risks, which is one reason the ASX Energy index is roughly flat for the year despite solid cash flows.  ^[46]

The Aussie dollar around US$0.65

The Australian dollar has been grinding higher, boosted by:

• Hotter‑than‑expected CPI, which slashed expectations for near‑term RBA cuts.  ^[47]
• A softer US dollar as markets lean into the “Fed will cut” narrative.  ^[48]

Recent data from FX sites shows AUD/USD trading in the 0.65 area, with the pair hitting a weekly high around 0.6555and mid‑market rates near 0.653–0.654 on 28–29 November.  ^[49]

For listed companies:

• A stronger AUD is usually a drag on exporters (including some miners, agribusiness and tourism‑exposed stocks) because offshore earnings translate back into fewer Australian dollars.
• But it helps importers and retailers by lowering the cost of goods landed in AUD, which can support margins if they can hold pricing.

Housing, APRA and the banks: tightening screws

The interplay between house prices, credit standards and rates is centre‑stage for financials:

• Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reports that Australian home prices rose another 1% in November, taking the median to A$888,941, with Perth up 2.4% and continued gains in Sydney and Melbourne. Yet this is happening alongside record housing unaffordability, as the dwelling‑value‑to‑income ratio hits new highs.  ^[50]
• To lean against rising risk, APRA has announced a cap on very high debt‑to‑income loans, requiring banks from early 2026 to limit the share of new mortgages where borrowers’ debt is a large multiple of their income.  ^[51]

Taken together with the RBA’s inflation challenge and a widening federal deficit (A$32.9bn in the first four months of FY25, versus A$10bn a year earlier), economists warn that policy settings could stay tight for longer, keeping pressure on leveraged households and the banks that lend to them.  ^[52]

For Monday’s open, that means:

• Big four banks and second‑tier lenders will remain in focus as markets price in slower high‑risk lending growthand potential margin pressures.
• A‑REITs and housing‑linked stocks (developers, building materials, home‑improvement retailers) could be volatile as investors digest the tension between strong nominal house prices and stretched borrowers.

Sector and stock themes to watch at the open

While individual stock moves will depend on company‑specific news, the 29 November data and recent corporate headlines suggest a few live themes:  ^[53]

1. Gold and metals miners
   • Benefiting from surging precious metals and firmer copper.
   • Already heavily owned; susceptible to sharp pull‑backs if gold pauses or US yields bounce.
2. Tech and growth names
   • Information Technology rallied almost 6% this week but remains one of the worst‑performing sectors for the quarter, so bargain‑hunters and short‑sellers are both active.  ^[54]
   • Global context: the Nasdaq’s monthly loss despite weekly gains shows how quickly sentiment can flip in high‑beta names.  ^[55]
3. Banks and diversified financials
   • Under a cloud from APRA’s new macro‑prudential rules, higher funding costs, and political scrutiny of profits amid cost‑of‑living pressures.  ^[56]
4. Energy and utilities
   • Oil’s multi‑month downtrend keeps a lid on earnings momentum for pure‑play oil & gas names, even as some utilities enjoy regulated pricing and index‑linked revenue.  ^[57]
5. Takeover, IPO and restructuring stories
   • Recent weeks have seen BHP’s interest in Anglo American, private‑equity attention on Monash IVF, and chatter about data‑centre assets and infrastructure deals, highlighting ongoing corporate activity that can move individual names regardless of macro noise.  ^[58]

How investors might approach the ASX open (not financial advice)

Given this backdrop, a few practical considerations for Monday’s session:

• Expect macro‑driven swings
  With Q3 GDP and other big data prints due mid‑week, markets may be reluctant to take large directional bets at the open, favouring short‑term trading around sectors like gold, materials and banks instead.
• Watch the bond market and AUD as early guides
  If US yields resume rising or the Aussie dollar pushes decisively above US$0.66, rate‑sensitive names (tech, REITs, utilities) could underperform again.
• Be careful chasing what’s already run
  Gold miners and some momentum tech stocks have had huge moves. Extended valuations plus macro event risk (GDP, RBA) can make these areas especially volatile.
• Focus on quality balance sheets and earnings visibility
  In an environment of sticky inflation, high rates and regulatory tightening, companies with strong cash flows, manageable debt and pricing power are generally better placed to navigate shocks.

Important: This article is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. It doesn’t take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider seeking independent advice before making investment decisions.

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