Australian shares are heading into Thursday’s open with a fragile global backdrop and a market that’s looking for a reason to stabilise after three straight sessions of declines. Pre-market pricing is essentially flat to slightly weaker, with SPI/ASX 200 futures hovering around unchanged to modestly down depending on the time you check—pointing to a cautious start rather than a decisive gap higher or lower. [1]
That “tight” pre-open call matters because sentiment is being pulled in opposite directions: US tech weakness and elevated risk aversion on one side, firmer commodities (iron ore, copper, oil, precious metals) on the other. The result is a market that could open quietly—then pick a direction quickly once sector rotations start showing up in early trading. [2]
Where the ASX is coming from: Wednesday’s close set the tone
On Wednesday (17 December), the S&P/ASX 200 finished lower again, extending its losing streak and closing near its weakest levels in about a week. The market was weighed down by heavyweight banks and consumer staples, while miners helped limit the damage as key commodity prices improved. [3]
A few notable read-throughs for today’s session:
- Banks have been the pressure point, with the sector struggling as investors re-price the outlook for 2026 growth and the chance of a more restrictive rate environment.
- Miners have been the shock absorbers, supported by strength in iron ore and copper.
- Stock-specific news has been driving some unusually sharp single-name moves (more on the key names below). [4]
Overnight lead: Wall Street slid hard, led by tech and AI-linked names
The most important global input into the ASX open is what happened in the US overnight. Wall Street’s major indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq notably weaker as investors turned cautious on the AI trade and big-ticket capex themes. Reuters described the mood as “nagging worries” about AI and tech-related spending, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq toward multi-week lows. [5]
Key numbers from the US close (Wednesday US time):
- Dow: down 0.47%
- S&P 500: down 1.16%
- Nasdaq Composite: down 1.81% [6]
Why it matters for Australia
Australia doesn’t have the same mega-cap AI complex as the US, but the sentiment spillover can still hit local tech, growth and “duration” stocks—especially when the global narrative shifts from “growth at any price” to “show me the cash flow.”
A key example from the US session: Oracle fell after a report raised questions around a major data-centre deal, and semiconductor bellwethers were also sold. That combination fed the broader “AI funding jitters” narrative. [7]
For the ASX, the practical implication is simple: even if the headline index opens near flat, the internal market may look more defensive, with investors favouring cash-generative cyclicals and commodity-linked names over high-multiple growth. [8]
Commodities check: a supportive pillar for miners—and a warning sign for inflation watchers
While equities softened, commodities were more constructive—an important counterbalance for the Australia-heavy resources complex.
Iron ore: one-week highs on restocking signals
Iron ore prices pushed to a one-week high, with Reuters reporting stronger futures prices tied to accelerated spot buying as Chinese steelmakers began restocking ahead of Lunar New Year demand. Dalian iron ore and Singapore benchmark pricing both strengthened, and Reuters also pointed to improved spot-market liquidity supporting sentiment. [9]
Why this matters at the open:
- It keeps a bid under the large diversified miners (BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue) and iron-ore-exposed names.
- It can help the ASX “hold up” even when offshore equity leads are soft, because resources are such a large index weight. [10]
Oil: rebound from multi-year lows after Venezuela sanctions move
Oil prices lifted after Reuters reported the US President ordered a “blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, boosting energy stocks and supporting crude from depressed levels. [11]
If oil holds those gains into the Australian session, watch the early tone in local energy names (and the broader inflation/rates conversation, because a sustained oil bounce can re-awaken inflation concerns).
Precious metals: silver steals the spotlight (and it’s not just a “gold story” anymore)
Silver has become one of 2025’s standout macro trades. Reuters reported silver pushing to a fresh record above US$65/oz, driven by a mix of investment demand, momentum buying, tight supply dynamics, and industrial demand tied to AI data centres, solar, and EV supply chains. Analysts also warned that silver remains structurally volatile—even when the long-term backdrop looks supportive. [12]
For the ASX open, this can be relevant in two ways:
- It can support precious-metals exposure across miners and developers (and more broadly reinforce the “real assets” bid).
- It also signals that markets remain sensitive to inflation hedges and “hard asset” positioning. [13]
Quick market snapshot: FX, yields and volatility
As of early Thursday morning in Australia, MarketIndex data showed:
- AUD/USD around 0.6605, down on the session
- US 10-year yield around 4.15%
- VIX higher (a sign of elevated equity risk pricing) [14]
A softer Aussie dollar can help offshore earners at the margin, but it can also be read as a risk-off signal—especially when it falls alongside equity weakness.
Australia macro: MYEFO raises inflation forecasts, keeping rate nerves alive
Domestic rates expectations are still one of the market’s biggest swing factors, and Wednesday’s federal economic update did not calm things down.
In its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), Treasury lifted its inflation forecast to 3.75% for the year ending June 2026, up from 3% previously, reflecting the recent inflation surge. Reuters noted this leaves monetary policy carrying the main burden of restraining price pressure. [15]
This matters for the ASX because the market is highly sensitive to the implied path of rates—particularly for:
- Banks (net interest margin expectations vs. credit growth risks)
- Rate-sensitive defensives and high-multiple growth stocks
- Housing/consumer-linked cyclicals that respond to changes in borrowing costs and confidence
Reuters also reported that two major banks (NAB and CBA) now expect an RBA rate hike in February 2026, and that Westpac has abandoned earlier rate-cut expectations, seeing rates on hold through 2026. [16]
Bottom line for today’s open: even if global leads were neutral, local rates pricing has the potential to keep investors cautious on the most interest-rate-sensitive segments of the market.
Stocks and sectors to watch today: the stories driving Thursday’s tape
Netwealth (NWL): compensation hit is big enough to move the stock
One of the most material local developments into Thursday is Netwealth’s agreement to compensate affected customers of its superannuation master fund with an estimated A$101 million, following an agreement with ASIC. Reuters reported the company expects to record the compensation as an extraordinary expense in its first-half FY2026 accounts, with an estimated ~A$71 million impact to NPAT. [17]
In parallel, Reuters reported APRA accepted a court enforceable undertaking from Netwealth Superannuation Services to address material weaknesses in investment governance. [18]
What it means at the open:
- This is the kind of headline that can drive an outsized move at 10:00am—especially if investors start modelling second-order effects (flows, compliance costs, reputational impact, and litigation/regulatory tail risk).
- Expect heightened attention not just on NWL, but across the broader platform/wealth-management complex.
Humm Group (HUM) and Credit Corp (CCP): takeover proposal puts HUM in play
Reuters reported that Humm received a non-binding indicative takeover proposal from Credit Corp, featuring a proposed scheme at A$0.77 per share (with an alternative A$0.72 off-market offer if the scheme fails). Reuters also noted Humm’s board offered to provide due diligence subject to a non-disclosure agreement. [19]
For Thursday’s trading:
- HUM can remain headline-driven and volatile.
- CCP can react to financing and execution assumptions (the “deal math” trade).
Star Entertainment (SGR): leadership reshuffle and control narrative
Star has been one of the most headline-sensitive names on the market, and Reuters reported a major executive shuffle: Bruce Mathieson Jr installed as CEO and Bally’s chair Soo Kim as chairman, reflecting the growing influence of Star’s largest backers. Reuters also pointed to continued regulatory scrutiny and the company’s efforts to stabilise after financial and operational turmoil. [20]
SGR’s moves can be sharp because it’s a high-beta, story-led stock—so even if you don’t trade it, it can influence broader sentiment in speculative segments.
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE): guidance shock still rippling
On Wednesday, Reuters reported Treasury Wine fell sharply after shelving the remaining portion of its share buyback and forecasting sharply lower first-half FY2026 operating earnings—an example of how quickly the market is punishing disappointments in a nervous tape. [21]
Even if TWE isn’t the main story today, the takeaway is important: earnings credibility is being repriced quickly, particularly in consumer and discretionary exposures.
The calendar: what can shift markets after the open
A few scheduled items can influence Thursday’s risk appetite:
- Local corporate focus: Sharecafe flagged ANZ and Elders annual meetings today—events that can generate stock-moving headlines if guidance, strategy, capital management, or shareholder motions surprise. [22]
- Offshore macro: Sharecafe also highlighted central bank meetings including the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and Sweden’s Riksbank—any surprise tone on inflation or growth can feed through to global yields and the AUD. [23]
- US inflation data: Reuters noted the next major US “consumer inflation” report from the Commerce Department is due Thursday, a potential volatility trigger for rates and risk assets globally. [24]
How to read the opening hour: three practical scenarios
Given the cross-currents, here are the most realistic “tells” to watch in the first 30–60 minutes of ASX trade:
- Resources-led resilience
If iron ore/copper strength dominates and miners catch bids early, the ASX can look steadier than Wall Street—even in a soft global session. The key confirmation will be broad buying across diversified miners rather than a single-name bounce. [25] - Tech/growth drags the index under
If the US tech sell-off narrative takes hold locally, investors may lean away from growth and high-multiple exposures, keeping the index pinned or lower even if miners are firm. The day’s tone then becomes “selective, defensive,” rather than a broad-based rebound. [26] - Headline-driven volatility under a flat index
The most likely outcome is a headline-heavy session where the index is calm but individual names move sharply—particularly Netwealth (regulatory/compensation) and Humm (M&A). That’s consistent with how the ASX traded on Wednesday, and it’s consistent with a market that’s nervous about rates but still hunting for value in specific pockets. [27]
The takeaway before the bell
Ahead of the 18 December open, the ASX is balancing a risk-off US lead (tech/AI funding jitters) against risk-on commodities that matter directly to Australia’s index heavyweights. Add the domestic backdrop—where MYEFO’s higher inflation forecast keeps the RBA/rates debate alive—and it’s easy to see why futures are struggling to show conviction. [28]
If you want one simple framework for the morning: watch whether miners can offset tech weakness, and whether rate expectations keep pressure on banks and consumer-sensitive names. From there, today’s biggest moves may come less from macro and more from stock-specific headlines—especially Netwealth, Humm Group, and Star. [29]
References
1. www.marketindex.com.au, 2. www.marketindex.com.au, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.abc.net.au, 10. www.abc.net.au, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketindex.com.au, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.sharecafe.com.au, 23. www.sharecafe.com.au, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.abc.net.au, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
