Aurora Cannabis (ACB) Stock Jumps on US Marijuana Rescheduling Headlines: Today's News, Forecasts, and Analysis (Dec. 12, 2025)

Dec. 12, 2025 — Aurora Cannabis Inc. stock (NASDAQ: ACB; TSX: ACB) is in focus Friday as cannabis equities broadly rally on fresh reporting that President Donald Trump is considering steps to loosen federal marijuana restrictions, including directing agencies toward reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug . ^[1]

In pre-market trading, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) rose about 15% alongside other cannabis names, reflecting how quickly US federal policy headlines can re-rate sentiment across the sector—even for Canada-based operators with international medical exposure. ^[2]

What’s driving Aurora Cannabis stock today

1) Cannabis stocks surge after Schedule III reporting

The day’s main catalyst is reporting that Trump is expected to push a major loosening of federal marijuana restrictions by directing agencies to pursue Schedule III reclassification. ^[3]

Reuters reports that the market read-through is straightforward: rescheduling could ease criminal penalties, reduce tax burdens, and improve access to financing , a long-standing constraint for the industry because many banks and institutional investors stay away under current federal restrictions. ^[4]

2) Important caveat: “No final decisions” (yet)

Even as traders bid up cannabis names, the Washington Post notes a White House official said no final decisions have been made on rescheduling. ^[5]
Forbes similarly reports a White House spokesperson said there are “no final decisions” regarding marijuana rescheduling—an important reminder that today’s move is headline-driven and could reverse if policy momentum stalls. ^[6]

3) Why the sector is reacting so strongly

A key reason investors respond sharply to Schedule III headlines is the potential impact on US cannabis industry economics , especially tax treatment. Reuters has previously explained that one of the biggest potential benefits of reclassification is that cannabis firms would no longer be subject to Internal Revenue Code Section 280E , which limits deductions for businesses trafficking Schedule I or II substances. ^[7]

That said, rescheduling is not the same as legalization, and it may introduce new complexities. A Reuters legal analysis has warned that while rescheduling could be historic, it is “no panacea” and could bring regulatory and legal friction, including questions around FDA-style oversight and how federal rules would interact with state markets. ^[8]

Aurora Cannabis stock price context (as of today’s move)

Aurora Cannabis closed at $4.55 on Dec. 11, 2025 , with recent daily closes in the mid-$4 range—a setup that can magnify percentage swings when a sector-wide catalyst hits. ^[9]

Pre-market on Dec. 12, ACB was indicated around $5.30 (+16% range) in movers coverage, broadly consistent with other reports of a ~15% move tied to the rescheduling headlines. ^[10]

Why this matters for analysis: ACB’s sharp percentage move is occurring from a relatively low price base, in a sector known for high beta to US policy developments.

How Schedule III could matter for Aurora Cannabis specifically

Aurora is frequently grouped with US-listed cannabis stocks in headline rallies, but its business profile is distinct:

Aurora describes itself as a Canada-based global medical cannabis company with operations serving medical and consumer markets across Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand . ^[11]
The company has been emphasizing medical cannabis (including international medical markets) as its core growth engine. ^[12]

So why does a US federal rescheduling headline still lift ACB?

Sector repricing effect: Broad cannabis ETFs and peers rise on the same headlines, pulling ACB along. ^[13]
Financing sentiment: Reuters highlights funding as a key industry challenge; any perceived easing tends to lift valuations across the group. ^[14]
Optionality narrative: Even if Aurora’s current operations are weighted to Canada and international medical channels, investors often price in future strategic flexibility when US policy appears to thaw.

Aurora Cannabis fundamentals: what the company most recently reported

Aurora’s most recent quarterly disclosure (Fiscal 2026 Q2, period ending Sept. 30, 2025 ) leaned heavily into medical cannabis profitability and international expansion.

Key highlights from the company’s release (figures noted by Aurora as in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated):

Total net revenue:$90.4 million (up 11% year-over-year). ^[15]
Medical cannabis net revenue:$70.5 million (+15% YoY), representing 78% of consolidated net revenue and 94% of adjusted gross profit (before fair value adjustments). ^[16]
International medical cannabis net revenue:$42.7 million (+22% YoY). ^[17]
Adjusted EBITDA:$15.4 million (reported as +52% YoY in company highlights). ^[18]
Cash position:$141.9 million and what Aurora characterizes as a debt-free cannabis business , with its remaining debt described as non-recourse debt tied to Bevo Farms. ^[19]

Management’s framing: CEO Miguel Martin said the quarter reflected a focus on “profitable growth,” pointing to record global medical cannabis net revenue and higher adjusted EBITDA. ^[20]

The most relevant company-specific news this week (Dec. 12 lens)

Poland: new high-potency medical flower launch

On Dec. 11, 2025 , Aurora announced the launch of “Black Jelly” in Poland, describing it as a proprietary cultivar for one of Europe’s faster-growing medical markets. The company said the product is grown and manufactured in its Canadian GACP and EU-GMP certified facilities and highlighted a THC 27% / CBD <1% cannabinoid profile. ^[21]

Australia: leadership appointment aimed at growth

On Dec. 8, 2025 , Aurora named Kerry Miller (described as a long-tenured consumer packaged goods executive) as Managing Director for Australia and New Zealand , effective Jan. 15, 2026 , positioning the hire as part of driving growth in regulated markets. ^[22]

Australia: distribution partnership to expand patient access

On Dec. 2, 2025 , Aurora announced a distribution partnership involving its subsidiary MedReleaf Australia and Leafio (the wholesale distribution arm of Montu Australia), with the stated goal of improving medical cannabis access and better serving patients across Australia. ^[23]

Aurora Cannabis forecast: what analysts and the company are signaling

Company outlook and guidance signals

In its fiscal Q2 release, Aurora said it expects continued strength in margins and indicated that free cash flow is expected to be positive in Q3 FY2026 , alongside expectations that higher global medical cannabis revenue should support year-over-year annual adjusted EBITDA growth. ^[24]

Analyst price targets and ratings (TSX / Canadian-dollar framing)

Different platforms show slightly different consensus snapshots, largely because they track different sets of analysts and use different methodologies:

MarketBeat (TSX: ACB) shows a consensus price target of C$8.50 and a “Strong Buy” consensus based on 2 analyst ratings , with a note that ATB Capital lowered its target from C$9.00 to C$8.50 on Dec. 11, 2025 (per MarketBeat’s listing). ^[25]
Investing.com displays an average 12‑month price target of C$7.80 from 4 analysts , with a high estimate of C$10 and a low estimate of C$6 , and summarizes the consensus stance as “Buy” (with a split of buy vs. hold recommendations shown on the page). ^[26]

How to read this: These targets are typically tied to the Canadian listing and Canadian-dollar share price , while ACB also trades in US dollars on NASDAQ. In practice, investors often focus on directionality (upside vs. downside) and the stability of revisions, rather than any single number.

Short interest as a potential volatility amplifier

MarketBeat reports Aurora Cannabis short interest of about 6.56 million shares (roughly 11.57% of float ) as of Nov. 28, 2025 , with a short interest ratio (days to cover) of ~7.2 . Elevated short interest can intensify upside moves during headline-driven rallies—but it can also exacerbate downside if momentum fades. ^[27]

What to watch next (near-term catalysts for ACB stock)

1) Confirmation (or denial) of the US policy path

The Washington Post report emphasizes that an executive order would direct agencies toward reclassification, but also highlights that a president cannot unilaterally reclassify marijuana—meaning process and follow-through matter as much as headlines. ^[28]

Expect markets to react to:

Any formal White House or agency statements,
Clarity on the administrative pathway and timing,
Signs of pushback or delay.

2) Next earnings window

MarketBeat estimates Aurora’s next earnings date around Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026 , based on past reporting cadence. ^[29]

This report could reset the narrative from “policy optionality” back to fundamentals—medical cannabis growth, margins, and cash flow execution.

3) Execution in Europe and Australia

Aurora’s latest operational headlines are squarely in international medical markets (Poland expansion; Australia distribution; leadership appointment). Investors will likely watch for follow-through in prescription volumes, supply reliability, and gross margin durability. ^[30]

Risks and reminders for investors following the rally

Aurora Cannabis stock can move quickly, and today’s catalyst underscores a familiar pattern in the sector:

Policy risk is binary and timing-dependent. Even supportive signals can stall. ^[31]
Rescheduling isn’t full legalization. Reuters has cautioned that even historic scheduling shifts may not resolve the industry’s structural conflicts with federal law and could introduce new regulatory complications. ^[32]
Company execution still matters most over time. Aurora’s thesis relates heavily on sustained medical cannabis growth, international market development, and disciplined cash management. ^[33]

References

Aurora Cannabis (ACB) Stock Jumps on US Marijuana Rescheduling Headlines: Today’s News, Forecasts, and Analysis (Dec. 12, 2025)