Aurora Cannabis (ACB) Stock on December 7, 2025: Australia Deal, Q2 2026 Earnings and What Forecasts Say Next

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NASDAQ: ACB; TSX: ACB) is ending 2025 in a very different place from where it started. After years of restructuring, the company has become a highly focused global medical cannabis business, with new partnerships in Australia, expanding operations in Europe, and back‑to‑back quarters of record medical revenue.

As of the latest trading sessions before December 7, 2025, ACB’s U.S.-listed shares trade around US$4.60, while the TSX listing changes hands near C$6.39, giving the company a market value in roughly the US$260–280 million range. ^[1]

Here’s a deep dive into the latest news, earnings, forecasts and analyses that matter for ACB stock right now.

1. Where ACB Stock Stands on December 7, 2025

Recent price action has been choppy but upward‑leaning.

On the NASDAQ, ACB most recently traded around US$4.60, after moving between US$4.55 and US$4.67 over the last full session, according to real‑time quote data.
On the TSX, Aurora’s Canadian listing sits around C$6.39, with a 52‑week range of roughly C$4.95 to C$9.90, placing the stock about a third below its yearly high. ^[2]
A recent technical overview noted that the U.S. listing has traded over the past year between roughly US$3.46 and US$6.62, underlining just how volatile the name remains. ^[3]

Short‑term moves into early December show the same story of volatility:

MarketWatch data show back‑to‑back declines on December 1 and 2 (–1.52% and –1.10% respectively), taking the U.S. share price down to US$4.48–4.53 on low volume, and leaving the stock more than 34% below its 52‑week high of US$6.91 set in February. ^[4]
A separate technical service estimates ACB is still up about 12–13% over the last 10 trading days, even after those dips, with intraday swings of roughly 2–3% and slightly declining volume – classic “volatile but grinding higher” behaviour. ^[5]

In other words: ACB is not dead money, but it is still very much a high‑beta cannabis stock whose daily chart looks like a seismograph.

2. Fresh December Catalyst: Leafio Deal Expands Aurora’s Australian Reach

The biggest new headline in December 2025 is Aurora’s move in Australia.

On December 2, 2025, Aurora announced that its wholly owned subsidiary MedReleaf Australia has entered a distribution partnership with Leafio, the wholesale arm of Montu Australia. ^[6]

Key details of the deal:

Leafio’s role: Leafio becomes a wholesaler for Aurora’s portfolio of medical cannabis brands in Australia, including MedReleaf, CraftPlant, Aurora, Whistler Cannabis Co. and IndiMed. ^[7]
Distribution power: Leafio operates a national supply chain serving more than 4,000 pharmacies across Australia, giving Aurora much deeper reach into the prescription market. ^[8]
Regulatory positioning: The products supplied under the partnership are TGA‑compliant and GMP‑certified, targeting the regulated prescription market rather than the recreational space. ^[9]
Strategic intent: Aurora and Leafio have highlighted both expanded patient access and education for healthcare professionals as central goals – the kind of messaging regulators like to see in a strictly medical framework. ^[10]

This deal sits on top of Aurora’s 2024 acquisition of MedReleaf Australia and effectively plugs Aurora’s brands into an already‑built Australian distribution machine. ^[11]

Why it matters for ACB stock

The Australian medical market is still smaller than Canada or Germany, but it’s one of the fastest‑growing prescription markets for cannabis, and Aurora is leaning hard into the “global medical leader” identity. This partnership:

Leverages existing production assets and genetics.
Targets higher‑margin medical sales, not low‑margin commoditised flower.
Could meaningfully increase international revenue over the next few years, even if the short‑term revenue contribution is not yet quantified.

Investors won’t see the full financial impact until future quarters, but structurally this is exactly the sort of asset‑light, distribution‑heavy expansion the market has been asking for.

3. Q2 2026 Results: Record Medical Revenue, But a Big Net Loss

Aurora’s fiscal Q2 2026 (three months ended September 30, 2025) is the core fundamental story behind recent analyst upgrades and bullish articles.

Across multiple reports and the company’s own release, the quarter looked roughly like this: ^[12]

Top‑line & segment mix

Net revenue: C$90.4 million, up about 11% year‑over‑year and roughly 8% quarter‑over‑quarter.
Medical cannabis: C$70.5 million in net revenue, up 15% YoY and now about 78% of total revenue.
International medical: C$42.7 million, up 22% YoY, driven by markets such as Australia, Germany, Poland and the U.K.
Canadian medical: C$27.9 million, with growth among both insured and self‑paying patients.
Consumer (recreational) cannabis: Around C$6.9 million, down ~34%, reflecting Aurora’s deliberate retreat from low‑margin adult‑use.
Plant propagation (Bevo Farms): About C$11.6 million, up roughly 34% YoY. ^[13]

Profitability metrics

Adjusted gross profit: ~C$51.8 million, up more than 20% YoY.
Adjusted EBITDA: C$15.4 million, up about 52% YoY, marking another quarter of positive EBITDA.
Adjusted net income: ~C$7.1 million, more than double the prior‑year figure.
IFRS net income: A net loss of roughly C$53 million, driven largely by non‑cash impairment charges and higher operating expenses, despite the improved operating performance. ^[14]

Balance sheet

Cash and cash equivalents around C$141.9 million at quarter‑end.
Management continues to emphasise a “debt‑free cannabis business”, with only non‑recourse debt tied to the plant‑propagation subsidiary Bevo Farms. ^[15]

Street reaction

Zacks and other outlets note Aurora beat both earnings and revenue expectations in the quarter, with EPS around C$0.09 versus a consensus of C$0.03, and revenue ahead of estimates near C$87–88 million. ^[16]
Several Seeking Alpha–linked analyses have since framed Q2 2026 as evidence of a durable, high‑margin medical platform, even as reported net income remains volatile because of IFRS accounting and one‑off charges. ^[17]

Put simply: operationally, Q2 looked strong; on paper, the big net loss reminds investors that cannabis accounting and impairments can still hijack the bottom line.

4. The Multi‑Quarter Turnaround: From FY 2025 to FY 2026

Q2 2026 didn’t come out of nowhere. Aurora has been teeing up this medical‑driven story for several quarters.

Q3 2025: The first “breakout” medical quarter

On February 5, 2025, Aurora reported fiscal Q3 2025 numbers that marked a clear positive inflection: ^[18]

Net revenue: C$88.2 million, up 37% YoY.
Global medical cannabis revenue: C$68.1 million, up 51% YoY.
Net income: Around C$31.2 million, compared with a loss in the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA: About C$23.1 million, up more than 300% YoY.
Free cash flow: Roughly C$27.4 million, marking positive free cash flow ahead of schedule.
Cash: Around C$180 million, plus a cannabis business that was already effectively debt‑free.

Those results sent a simple message: the medical pivot wasn’t just a press‑release slogan; it was starting to show up in the numbers.

FY 2025 and Q4: Growth, but a guidance gut‑punch

By June 18, 2025, Aurora had filed full‑year fiscal 2025 results and Q4 numbers: ^[19]

Q4 2025 revenue came in around C$90.5 million, driven by nearly 50% growth in medical sales, with international medical revenue more than doubling and accounting for over 60% of global medical revenue.
The company still reported a net loss, but continued to generate positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow.

However, the market hated the guidance: in the same update, Aurora warned of “temporary declines” in international sales in the following quarter, even as Canadian medical was expected to grow. That cautious outlook saw the U.S. stock drop more than 17% in a single session, even though shares remained up about 14% for 2025 year‑to‑date at that point. ^[20]

This sequence explains why, by late 2025, the Street tends to treat any Aurora bullish narrative with a mix of interest and skepticism: the trend is good, but execution is still under a microscope.

5. Global Expansion: Poland, Germany and a Medical‑First Map

The Australia–Leafio deal is just the latest tile in Aurora’s international mosaic.

Poland: Ultra‑high‑THC medical flower

In June 2025, Aurora launched two proprietary, high‑THC medical cannabis cultivars – Farm Gas and Sourdough – into the Polish prescription market. ^[21]

These products are marketed as some of the highest‑potency medical cannabis flowers available in Poland, grown in Aurora’s Canadian GACP/EU‑GMP certified facilities.
The launch positions Aurora as a premium supplier in a growing but tightly regulated European market.

Germany: Manufacturing investment

September 2025 saw Aurora announce an investment into a German manufacturing facility, designed to strengthen its EU‑GMP production footprint and shorten supply chains for European patients. ^[22]

Germany is the largest medical cannabis market in Europe, and the company clearly wants local infrastructure in place ahead of any further liberalisation.

A deliberately medical, multinational model

Taken together – high‑potency products in Poland, manufacturing in Germany, and distribution in Australia – Aurora’s footprint now spans most of the major medical cannabis markets that global investors talk about. The company employs around 1,000+ people worldwide, underlining that this is no longer a small speculative grower but a mid‑sized, fully international operator. ^[23]

For ACB stockholders, that global base is the long‑term “equity story”: if international medical cannabis becomes a mainstream pharmaceutical‑like market, Aurora wants to be one of the default suppliers.

6. Analyst Ratings and ACB Stock Forecasts (as of December 7, 2025)

Analyst views on Aurora are cautiously optimistic but far from unanimous. Here’s how the major forecast aggregators line up.

Canada‑focused (TSX listing)

Investing.com tracks four analysts on Aurora’s TSX listing and lists a consensus rating of “Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target around C$7.93, and a range from C$6 to C$10. ^[24]
Fintel shows a similar picture: an average one‑year target near C$8.08, with individual targets between roughly C$6.06 and C$10.50. ^[25]

Against a current TSX price around C$6.39, these estimates imply roughly 25–30% upside if the analysts are right.

U.S. listing (NASDAQ: ACB)

A detailed stock analysis at Directorstalk Interviews notes that among the brokers it tracks, Aurora currently has two Buy ratings and two Hold ratings, with no Sell ratings. It cites a target price of about US$6.24, implying roughly 37% upside from the then‑current price around US$4.54. The same piece flags negative EPS (~–0.72) and ROE (~–10.7%), but highlights 11.4% revenue growth and positive free cash flow of about US$10.7 million. ^[26]
TipRanks, focusing on the U.S. listing, is more muted: it currently shows only one active Wall Street analyst, with a “Hold” rating and an average 12‑month price target around US$4.34, which is slightly below the latest U.S. share price (~US$4.60). ^[27]
MarketWatch’s analyst‑estimate page for ACB points to a high U.S. target near US$7.16, a median around US$5.56, a low around US$4.25, and an average about US$5.63, again implying moderate but not explosive upside from current levels. ^[28]

What the forecasts are really saying

Across platforms:

Canadian analysts focusing on the TSX listing are generally more bullish, seeing mid‑double‑digit percentage upside over 12 months. ^[29]
U.S.‑centric views are more mixed, with at least one model expecting slight downside, and others clustering around modest upside. ^[30]

All of them, however, are reacting to the same tension: strong growth in medical revenue and EBITDA versus ongoing IFRS net losses, sector volatility and regulatory uncertainty.

7. Technical Picture: Volatile, With Conflicting Signals

For short‑term traders, the technical backdrop of ACB is… spicy.

A technical service that tracks pattern‑based indicators notes that on December 2, 2025, ACB’s Aroon indicator (a trend‑identification tool) shifted into a downtrend, indicating weakening upside momentum. The same analysis flags that the stock had previously broken below its lower Bollinger Band in late November and then bounced, a classic mean‑reversion pattern. ^[31]
StockInvest’s forecast model points out that on December 5, 2025, ACB rose from US$4.58 to US$4.60, with a day range of US$4.57–4.68, and estimates that the stock is up around 12.75% over the last 10 trading days, despite price declines on two of those days. Volume on that last session fell by more than 200,000 shares, suggesting the latest uptick came on lighter trading. ^[32]

Combine that with the MarketWatch evidence of ACB trading roughly 35% below its February high and you get a pretty clear message: ACB is still in the “high‑volatility, mean‑reversion and news‑driven” bucket, not in the “slow, steady compounder” bucket. ^[33]

Technical signals can flip fast; for most long‑term investors in ACB, they are background noise compared to earnings, regulatory developments and international execution.

8. Macro & Regulatory Tailwinds: The “Trump Rally” Context

One reason cannabis stocks, including Aurora, are back on many watchlists in late 2025 is macro/regulatory news from the United States.

On September 29, 2025, a Reuters report detailed how U.S. cannabis stocks surged after Donald Trump publicly promoted cannabidiol (CBD) for senior healthcare and referenced efforts to reclassify marijuana under federal law. Aurora’s shares were specifically cited as gaining about 25% on that move, as part of a sector‑wide rally. ^[34]

This came on top of earlier steps by U.S. agencies toward moving cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, which would ease tax burdens and potentially broaden institutional participation in the sector. ^[35]

For Aurora, which is primarily a non‑U.S. medical player, these developments are more sentiment tailwinds than direct revenue drivers. But they matter for ACB stock because:

They can change investor risk appetite for the whole cannabis complex.
They may eventually open avenues for U.S. listings and partnerships that were previously blocked.

In short, macro policy chatter helped drag Aurora’s stock off its lows, but the lasting re‑rating will hinge on the company’s own numbers, not the latest viral post.

9. Key Risks and Opportunities for ACB Investors

Based on the latest news, earnings and forecasts up to December 7, 2025, the ACB story looks something like this:

Opportunities

Global medical focus: Medical cannabis now accounts for roughly 78% of revenue, with high‑margin, prescription‑based sales in Canada, Europe and Australia. ^[36]
International scale: Aurora has active or growing footprints in Germany, Poland, Australia, the U.K. and other markets, backed by EU‑GMP manufacturing and local partnerships like Leafio. ^[37]
Improving profitability metrics: Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income have trended positive in recent quarters, with multiple periods of positive free cash flow and a solid cash buffer. ^[38]
Analyst support: Most Canadian‑focused analysts still see double‑digit percentage upside over the next 12 months, and there are few outright Sell ratings in major databases. ^[39]

Risks

Ongoing IFRS net losses: Even with strong operating performance, Q2 2026 still showed a C$53 million net loss, driven by impairments and other non‑cash items. ^[40]
Sector volatility: Regulatory timelines, political changes and macro risk sentiment can move cannabis stocks 20–30% in a day, as seen in both the June guidance shock and the September “Trump CBD rally.” ^[41]
Execution risk abroad: Germany, Poland and Australia are attractive but highly regulated markets; product registration, reimbursement and competition from other EU‑GMP producers all add uncertainty. ^[42]
Valuation vs. fundamentals: While revenue growth is solid and free cash flow is improving, Aurora still shows negative EPS, negative ROE and no dividend, which can limit the investor base to those comfortable with higher risk. ^[43]

10. The Bottom Line on ACB Stock Heading into 2026

As of December 7, 2025, ACB is best understood as a leveraged bet on global medical cannabis going mainstream – not a sleepy income stock, and not a pure U.S. legalization trade.

The Leafio partnership in Australia, record medical sales in Q2 2026, and investments in European manufacturing and high‑potency products all reinforce Aurora’s identity as a specialised medical platform rather than a generic grower. ^[44]
Analyst forecasts are cautiously constructive, especially in Canada, where consensus targets sit comfortably above current prices – but U.S. coverage shows that not everyone is convinced. ^[45]
The stock chart still behaves like a rollercoaster, reflecting both sector‑wide macro news and Aurora‑specific guidance shifts.