Australia’s economic calendar for Monday, 15 December 2025 is light on hard data, but far from dull. The local market’s main event is an RBA speech focused on financial stability, landing just days after the central bank’s hawkish “hold”on rates and against a backdrop of sticky inflation signals and capacity constraints flagged in business surveys. Reserve Bank of Australia
At the same time, the day brings a heavy Asia-Pacific macro pulse via China’s activity data and Japan’s Tankan survey—key inputs for commodities, risk sentiment, and the Australian dollar (AUD) given Australia’s trade exposure. Westpac IQ Library
Australia economic calendar: what’s scheduled for Monday, 15 December 2025 (AEDT)
No major ABS economy releases are scheduled for Monday on the ABS December 2025 “Economy” release calendar—meaning price, jobs, spending and trade headlines are more likely to be driven by central bank communication and offshore data than domestic statistics. Australian Bureau of Statistics
Here are the key market-moving events, with times in AEDT (Sydney/Canberra time):
1) 1:20pm AEDT — RBA speech: Andrea Brischetto (Financial Stability)
The Reserve Bank of Australia lists a speech by Andrea Brischetto, Head of the Financial Stability Department, scheduled for 15 December 2025 at 1:20pm AEDT at the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference. Reserve Bank of Australia
Why it matters:
- With the RBA explicitly warning that inflation risks have tilted to the upside, markets are highly sensitive to any read-through from the Bank’s financial-stability lens: housing leverage, arrears, bank buffers, and the resilience of household balance sheets.
- Even when a speech isn’t “about rates,” it can change how investors think about how tight policy can remain—or whether financial stability becomes a practical constraint.
2) 10:50am AEDT — Japan: Tankan (Large Manufacturers, Q4)
Japan’s Tankan large manufacturers index is on the calendar for Monday morning (previous: 14). Westpac IQ Library
Why it matters for Australia:
- Japan is central to regional risk appetite and bond-market dynamics; moves in global yields can spill into Australian rates and the AUD via relative-rate expectations.
3) 1:00pm AEDT — China: November activity data
China’s industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment are due at 1:00pm AEDT, a time flagged in week-ahead market previews. Westpac IQ Library
Market calendar expectations (as shown by widely followed event calendars):
- China Retail Sales (y/y): forecast 3.0% vs previous 2.9% Forex Factory
- China Industrial Production (y/y): forecast 5.0% vs previous 4.9% Forex Factory
- China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD, y/y): forecast -2.4% vs previous -1.7% Forex Factory
Why it matters for Australia:
- This is the most direct same-day macro driver for iron ore/commodity sentiment and, by extension, terms-of-trade narratives that can move the AUD.
4) Overnight risk: US and Europe data on the radar
Even if Australia’s domestic data docket is quiet, global macro can still set the tone for ASX futures and FX pricing:
- US Empire State Manufacturing index (previous 18.7) and NAHB housing market index (previous 38) are on the week’s calendar. Westpac IQ Library
- Euro zone industrial production (previous 0.2%) is scheduled for 9:00pm AEDT. Westpac IQ Library
The big backdrop: why an RBA “financial stability” speech is suddenly market-moving
The RBA’s 9 December decision to hold the cash rate at 3.60% set the tone for December trading: inflation has eased from its 2022 peak, but the Bank says it has picked up more recently, and it sees “signs of a more broadly based pick-up” that may prove persistent.
In its official statement, the RBA also highlighted:
- Stronger private demand (consumption and investment)
- A housing market that is “continuing to pick up”
- Labour market conditions that remain “a little tight”
- Uncertainty about how much signal to take from the new monthly CPI series
That mix—re-accelerating private demand plus a labour market still not fully “loose,” alongside renewed inflation uncertainty—is exactly the environment where financial stability commentary can become relevant for rates pricing.
Inflation in Australia: the numbers that shifted the narrative
Australia’s inflation debate has been re-energised by the new monthly CPI regime.
The ABS reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% in the 12 months to October 2025, up from 3.6% in the 12 months to September. The ABS also reported trimmed mean inflation at 3.3% y/y (up from 3.2% previously). Australian Bureau of Statistics
That’s important because the RBA’s latest statement explicitly notes uncertainty about interpreting the monthly CPI because it’s a new data series, even as it acknowledges the data suggest a broader pick-up that “will bear close monitoring.”
A major market implication: if investors conclude inflation is re-broadening (not just a one-off), then speeches—especially from a senior financial stability official—can be read for whether the Bank is becoming more concerned about the side effects of keeping policy tight (or potentially needing to tighten again).
Business conditions: capacity constraints are still in the story
A closely watched business survey has added fuel to the “inflation risk” conversation.
Reuters reported that NAB’s business conditions index fell to +7 in November, while business confidence slid to +1. The same report noted capacity utilisation rose to 83.6%, the highest in 18 months, alongside firmer price indicators (purchase costs and retail prices).
Why this matters for Monday:
- Capacity constraints are one of the classic channels through which stronger demand turns into more persistent inflation pressure.
- If the RBA remains concerned that supply-side limits are binding, investors may treat “financial stability resilience” messaging as giving the Bank more room to stay restrictive.
Consumer sentiment: optimism is back—but will it last?
One of the notable “green shoots” in late 2025 has been household confidence.
The Melbourne Institute’s consumer sentiment update reported the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index surged 12.8% to 103.8, moving above 100 (optimists outnumber pessimists) for the first time since early 2022 and marking a seven-year high excluding the COVID period. Edu
Reuters also highlighted the same turning point in consumer mood and described the jump as unusually strong. Reuters
But the market question now is whether that confidence can hold up if rate-cut hopes fade. A week-ahead note from IG pointed to the RBA’s hawkish hold and suggested consumer sentiment may ease back toward 100 in December amid rising discussion of 2026 rate hike risk.
This is highly relevant context for Monday: if household sentiment is improving while inflation risk is rising, the RBA will be watching whether demand momentum becomes inconsistent with disinflation.
What to listen for in Andrea Brischetto’s RBA speech
The RBA’s listing confirms the event and timing; the market task is to interpret the implications. Reserve Bank of Australia
Themes that can move AUD rates and bank stocks—without a single explicit reference to the cash rate—include:
- Household stress signals: any emphasis on arrears, buffers, refinancing pressure, or distributional stress (“mortgage belt” dynamics).
- Housing and credit conditions: whether the RBA sees credit availability and housing momentum as amplifying the inflation pulse (or creating tail risks).
- Bank resilience: commentary on capital, liquidity, and risk management that could shape risk appetite for financial stocks.
- Macroprudential framing: even subtle references to prudential tools can affect expectations about how policymakers might respond if housing re-accelerates.
Given the RBA has already stated that financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and that housing activity and prices are picking up, investors may use the speech to refine views on whether that easing is becoming a macro problem.
Why China’s data matters so much for the Australia calendar
On paper, China’s activity release is offshore. In practice, it often behaves like an “Australia-adjacent” data print.
Market calendars show expectations for a modest improvement in annual growth rates for retail sales and industrial output, while fixed asset investment remains negative on a year-to-date basis. Forex Factory
Potential market reactions to watch:
- Upside surprise: tends to support commodities and cyclicals, lifting AUD sentiment—especially if it reinforces a “soft landing / stabilisation” narrative.
- Downside surprise: can pressure iron ore proxies and weigh on AUD risk appetite, particularly if global growth concerns are already in play.
Quick look ahead: what’s next after Monday
Even though your focus is 15 December, traders rarely price a day in isolation—especially in December liquidity.
Key Australia-linked events flagged for the week include:
- RBA Brad Jones speech (AusPayNet Summit): Tuesday 16 December, 9:15am AEDT Reserve Bank of Australia
- Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday 16 December, 10:30am AEDT Westpac IQ Library
And globally, the same week features major central bank events—including the BoJ meeting and the ECB—that can feed back into AUD via yield differentials and risk sentiment. Westpac IQ Library
Bottom line for Monday, 15 December 2025
Australia’s Monday calendar is a classic “quiet data, loud narrative” setup:
- The RBA’s financial stability speech is the main domestic focal point, arriving right after the Bank’s hawkish hold and renewed inflation vigilance. Reserve Bank of Australia
- China’s activity data is the key same-day macro catalyst for AUD traders and commodity-linked sentiment. Forex Factory
- With inflation recently firmer and businesses still reporting capacity constraints, markets will be sensitive to anything that shifts expectations for how restrictive Australian policy can remain into 2026.
