Australia Economic Calendar Today: RBA Rate Decision and NAB Business Survey in Focus

Australia’s economic calendar for Tuesday, 9 December 2025 is dominated by two high‑impact events:

the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate decision, and
the NAB Monthly Business Survey for November, covering business confidence and conditions.

Both hit just weeks after inflation jumped to 3.8% year‑on‑year in October, the fastest pace this year, and after Q3 GDP grew 2.1% annually, the strongest in two years. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at the day’s key events, the latest data, and what it all means for the AUD, bond markets and the ASX 200.

Australia’s 9 December 2025 economic calendar at a glance

Local times are AEDT (Sydney/Canberra).

11:30 am – NAB Business Survey (November)
- Business Confidence (index)
- Business Conditions (index)
- Previous (October):
  - Conditions: +9
  - Confidence: +6 ^[2]
2:30 pm – RBA cash rate decision and statement (December meeting)
- Current cash rate: 3.60%
- The RBA’s website lists 3.60% as the target, effective 5 November 2025, with the next update scheduled for 2:30 pm on 9 December. ^[3]
Later this week (not today, but crucial context)
- Thursday 11 December, 11:30 am – Labour Force, Australia (November 2025)
  - ABS confirms the November labour force release at 11:30 am AEDT on 11 December. ^[4]

1. RBA December meeting: a “hawkish hold” is the base case

Where the cash rate stands now

The RBA has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in 2025, taking the cash rate from a 12‑year high of 4.35% down to 3.60%, most recently in August. ^[5]

Since then, the Board has held the rate steady at its September and November meetings, arguing that policy is already restrictive enough while inflation remains above target. ^[6]

What economists expect today

The overwhelming consensus is for no change at today’s meeting:

A Reuters poll of 38 economists (conducted 1–4 December) found all respondents expect the RBA to hold at 3.60% at the end of today’s two‑day meeting. ^[7]
The same poll shows a marked shift toward a long period on hold through 2026: of those with forecasts out to 2026, 19 of 33 economists expect no change at 3.60%, with a minority looking for either one hike or one cut. ^[8]
Private‑sector forecasters have been moving in the same direction. ANZ, for example, has recently scrapped its early‑2026 rate‑cut call and now expects the cash rate to stay at 3.60% “for an extended period.” ^[9]

Market pricing broadly agrees. The ASX 30‑Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures show only a small implied probability of any move at today’s meeting, effectively pricing a hold. ^[10]

Why the RBA is expected to hold

Three big data points frame today’s decision:

Inflation has re‑accelerated
- The ABS’ new, complete monthly CPI shows annual inflation at 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% in September. ^[11]
- Trimmed mean inflation is 3.3% year‑on‑year, still above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. ^[12]
- Media and bank analysis emphasise that the stronger‑than‑expected CPI outcome “keeps pressure on the RBA” and has pushed back hopes of near‑term rate cuts. ^[13]
Growth has picked up, even if the quarterly print disappointed
- Q3 2025 GDP grew 0.4% quarter‑on‑quarter and 2.1% year‑on‑year, the fastest annual pace in around two years, driven by solid domestic demand and a boom in private investment (especially data centres). ^[14]
- While the 0.4% quarterly gain undershot market forecasts near 0.7%, the underlying picture of resilient demand makes it harder for the RBA to justify looser policy. ^[15]
The labour market remains tight
- The October unemployment rate fell back to 4.3% after a surprise jump in September, as employment rose by about 42,000, mostly full‑time jobs. ^[16]
- Participation remains high near 67%, and total hours worked ticked higher, signalling a labour market that is cooling only slowly. ^[17]

Put together, the data point to inflation still too high, growth at or slightly above potential, and unemployment only modestly higher than pre‑pandemic lows – a mix that supports the case for a pause, not fresh easing.

What to watch in today’s RBA statement

Because a hold at 3.60% is widely expected, markets will focus more on the tone than the decision itself. Key phrases traders will scan for:

Inflation language
- Does the Board characterise the recent 3.8% CPI print as a temporary spike or as evidence of more persistent price pressures? ^[18]
Assessment of demand and wages
- The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy noted that domestic demand and labour costs remain sources of inflationary pressure. Any sense that the “soft landing” is becoming harder to manage will be read as hawkish. ^[19]
Forward guidance for 2026
- According to Reuters and multiple bank commentaries, there is now a serious debate about whether the next move in 2026 is more likely to be a hike than a cut, even if a hold is still the central case. ^[20]

A statement that leans heavily on upside inflation risks and uses stronger language about being ready to “do what is necessary” would be interpreted as a “hawkish hold”, potentially lifting the AUD and weighing on rate‑sensitive stocks.

2. NAB Business Survey: fresh read on corporate Australia

Why the survey matters

The NAB Monthly Business Survey is one of Australia’s most closely watched timely indicators of activity, pricing power and forward orders. It typically lands about a week before the official labour force release, giving markets an early sense of whether momentum is holding up.

In October:

The Business Conditions index rose to +9, driven by stronger trading conditions and profitability.
Business Confidence eased to +6, but remained above its long‑run average.
Capacity utilisation sat around 83.4%, roughly 2 percentage points above average, and forward orders reached their highest level since April 2023. ^[21]

NAB’s economists interpreted this as evidence that activity remains solid, while cost and price pressures in the survey have largely returned to pre‑pandemic norms – a combination that complicates the RBA’s inflation fight. ^[22]

Expectations for November’s read

While there is no formal “market consensus” number published for the NAB indices, several previews point in a similar direction:

NAB’s own “What to Watch – Week of 8 December 2025” note highlights that conditions are likely to remain robust, and that the recent run of stronger household spending should continue to support trading conditions and profitability. ^[23]
A separate weekly economic update from AMP suggests the November NAB survey is likely to show “reasonable” levels of confidence and conditions, consistent with a still‑resilient business sector. ^[24]
One morning preview of today’s ASX session notes that analysts broadly expect business conditions to remain around +9 and confidence in the mid‑single digits, both still above average. TechStock²+1

How markets will read the numbers

Stronger‑than‑expected NAB survey
- Would reinforce the idea that domestic demand is holding up despite higher rates, and could tilt the RBA’s risk‑assessment toward future hikes if inflation stays firm. ^[25]
- Likely supportive for AUD and potentially negative for longer‑dated bonds, as investors push back the timing of any eventual easing. ^[26]
Weaker‑than‑expected NAB survey
- Would fit a narrative of gradual cooling, especially if forward orders and capacity utilisation soften, giving doves on the Board more ammunition to argue that current rates are sufficiently restrictive. ^[27]

Either way, the survey will be read together with the October CPI and Q3 GDP as the RBA updates its internal assessment of how much slack is emerging in the economy. ^[28]

3. Macro backdrop heading into today

Inflation: October CPI at 3.8%

The ABS’ first release of the complete monthly CPI showed: ^[29]

Headline CPI:
- 3.8% year‑on‑year in October (up from 3.6% in September).
- 0.3% month‑on‑month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Trimmed mean CPI: 3.3% year‑on‑year, edging higher.
Biggest contributions:
- Housing costs up around 5.9% over the year.
- Food and non‑alcoholic beverages up about 3.2%.
- Recreation and culture also around 3.2%.

Commentary from banks, business groups and the media has stressed that the upside surprise “dashes hopes of early rate cuts”, with some analysts even warning that further tightening can’t be ruled out if inflation proves sticky. ^[30]

Growth: Q3 GDP at fastest pace in two years

The September‑quarter National Accounts paint a picture of steady but not stellar growth: ^[31]

Real GDP:
- +0.4% q/q,
- +2.1% y/y, the fastest annual pace in about two years.
Drivers:
- Private investment (especially data centre and infrastructure spending) contributed strongly.
- Household consumption rose, helped by higher spending on essentials like energy and rent, and some resilience in discretionary categories.
- Government spending also added modestly to growth.
Offsets:
- Net exports detracted from growth as imports outpaced exports.
- Per‑capita GDP was flat for the quarter, highlighting ongoing pressure on living standards.

For the RBA, this combination – respectable overall growth but weak per‑capita gains – reinforces the idea that the economy has slowed from its post‑pandemic surge but is not weak enough to justify easing purely on growth grounds.

Labour market: unemployment at 4.3%, jobs growth positive

The October labour force report showed: ^[32]

Unemployment rate down to 4.3% after a one‑off jump in September.
Employment up by roughly 42,000, with more than 55,000 full‑time jobs added.
Participation remained high around 67%, and hours worked rose slightly.

Economists see this as evidence of a still‑tight labour market, even as conditions cool from earlier peaks. That limits the RBA’s ability to ease policy while inflation is above target.

Housing and construction: approvals slump threatens supply

On the housing side, building approvals remain a major concern:

ABS data show new dwelling approvals fell 6.4% in October, and are around 1.8% lower than a year earlier. ^[33]
Detached house approvals fell about 2%, while higher‑density approvals dropped more sharply (around ‑12%) in the month. ^[34]
Over the year to October, fewer than 192,000 new homes were approved, well below what’s needed to meet national housing targets under the 1.2 million homes Accord, according to industry estimates. ^[35]

Industry bodies warn that if approvals don’t turn higher, structural undersupply and housing affordability pressureswill continue to build, complicating the RBA’s job by keeping rents and construction‑related costs elevated.

4. How today’s calendar could move AUD, bonds and the ASX

Early‑morning commentary from local equity strategists notes that ASX 200 futures were down about 0.3% heading into the session, with traders bracing for a “central‑bank heavy” week featuring both the RBA today and the US Federal Reserve later in the week. ^[36]

At the same time, the AUD/USD is trading just above US$0.66, slightly weaker overnight as US bond yields grind higher before the Fed. ^[37]

Here’s how different combinations of today’s events could play out:

Scenario 1: NAB survey solid, RBA hawkish hold (baseline)

NAB Business Conditions stay near +9, confidence mid‑single digits. ^[38]
RBA holds at 3.60% but emphasises:
- the upside surprise in inflation,
- strong labour market, and
- willingness to keep policy restrictive “for as long as necessary”. ^[39]

Market reaction risk:

AUD: supported, likely to trade toward the upper end of the recent US$0.65–0.67 range. ^[40]
Bonds: yields a little higher, especially at the 3–5 year part of the curve.
ASX 200:
- Banks may hold up on improved margin prospects.
- Rate‑sensitive REITs, tech and consumer names could underperform. ^[41]

Scenario 2: Softer NAB survey, cautious but balanced RBA

NAB survey shows clear softening in forward orders or capacity utilisation, pointing to a more noticeable slowdown. ^[42]
RBA holds but acknowledges greater downside risks to growth, even while staying focused on inflation.

Possible reaction:

AUD: drifts lower, especially if global risk sentiment is already weak.
Yields: market may push back expectations of any 2026 hike, flattening the curve. ^[43]
Equities:
- Dovish undertones could aid REITs, small caps and consumer discretionary,
- but concerns about the growth outlook could weigh on cyclical names like miners. ^[44]

Scenario 3: Surprisingly hawkish RBA language

A genuinely hawkish surprise – for example, explicit mention that “the next move could be up” if inflation does not moderate – would likely:

Boost the AUD more sharply.
Trigger a bigger sell‑off in rate‑sensitive equities and a rise in short‑dated yields, as markets price in a non‑trivial chance of a 2026 rate hike. ^[45]

5. The rest of the week: labour force and global central banks

Today’s events do not happen in isolation. Markets are also looking ahead to:

Thursday 11 December – Labour Force, Australia (November)
- ABS has scheduled the November release for 11:30 am AEDT. ^[46]
- NAB expects employment growth around 25,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%, while some others look for a small uptick to 4.4%. ^[47]
Federal Reserve meeting later this week
- Global commentary suggests the Fed is likely to cut rates again, but with a hawkish tone, keeping US yields elevated and indirectly influencing the AUD and Australian bond yields. ^[48]

The interplay between today’s RBA message, Thursday’s jobs data, and the Fed’s decision will shape markets well beyond 9 December.

FAQs: Australia economic calendar – 9 December 2025

What time is the RBA interest rate decision today?

The RBA cash rate decision is scheduled for 2:30 pm AEDT. The central bank’s website lists 3.60% as the current cash rate and specifies 9 December 2025, 2:30 pm as the time of the next update. ^[49]

What are economists expecting from today’s meeting?

Most economists and market participants expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, with no move anticipated until well into 2026. A Reuters poll found all 38 economists surveyed expect a hold, and a majority now foresee rates staying at 3.60% through 2026. ^[50]

What is the NAB Business Confidence forecast for November 2025?

Formal consensus numbers aren’t widely published, but bank research suggests:

Business conditions likely remain around +9,
Business confidence in the mid‑single digits (similar to October’s +6),
indicating an economy that is slowing, but still expanding, with solid capacity utilisation. ^[51]

Which recent data points matter most for today’s decisions?

The RBA and markets are particularly focused on:

October CPI at 3.8% y/y, indicating inflation has re‑accelerated and is well above the 2–3% target band. ^[52]
Q3 GDP up 0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y, showing steady growth and the fastest annual pace in two years. ^[53]
October unemployment at 4.3% with strong full‑time job gains, signalling ongoing labour‑market tightness. ^[54]
October building approvals down 6.4%, highlighting structural housing‑supply issues that underpin rents and construction costs. ^[55]

Final note

This article is general information only and is not financial advice. If you’re making investment or trading decisions based on today’s Australian economic calendar, consider your own objectives and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice where appropriate.