SYDNEY, Thursday 18 December 2025 — Australian shares drifted lower for a fourth straight session as global “AI valuation” jitters again hit technology names, while a sharp sell-off in uranium stocks dragged on broader sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 (ASX 200) spent most of the day in mild retreat — down about 0.1% to 0.3% — before stabilising into the afternoon.
Even with the pullback, local losses were modest relative to the overnight slide on Wall Street, where tech weakness again dominated. Analysts point out Australia’s market structure — heavy in banks and miners, light in mega-cap tech — continues to cushion the ASX when US technology gets hit. [1]
Below is a detailed wrap of today’s key market drivers, major stock movers, and the latest forecasts and analysis circulating on 18.12.2025 — including what investors are watching into year-end.
ASX 200 today: four-day losing streak, but losses stay contained
By late morning, the ABC’s market snapshot had the ASX 200 down 0.3% to 8,561, with the Australian dollar around 66.00 US cents. By mid‑afternoon, IG’s market update put the index near 8,571 (down 0.15%), describing a session weighed by tech and “AI bubble” concerns.
MarketIndex’s live wrap at 2:00pm (AEDT) noted a bounce from deeper intraday losses (down as much as 0.38% at one point) but said the tape still felt “heavy and selective,” citing hawkish RBA rate repricing, ongoing AI/tech weakness and crowded positioning.
Why the ASX didn’t fall as hard as the Nasdaq: ABC’s analysis highlighted that Australia simply doesn’t have the same concentration of global mega-cap tech giants (think Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet). Tech is a smaller slice of the ASX, so global tech-driven drawdowns typically have less index-level impact. [2]
Global lead: Oracle-driven tech nerves ripple into Australia
The day’s risk-off tone again traced back to global tech. Reuters’ global markets wrap said renewed questions about AI spending hit tech stocks in Asia, noting Oracle fell 5.4% and Nvidia slid 3.8% amid uncertainty around AI/data-centre investment and who ultimately pays for it.
That dynamic matters for Australia in two ways:
- ASX tech sentiment (data centres, software, high‑multiple growth) tends to track global risk appetite even if the sector is smaller.
- Positioning and liquidity into year-end can amplify swings — small sector moves can still dominate the day’s narrative.
MarketIndex listed heavy moves across ASX tech names earlier in the session (including declines in NextDC, Megaport and Life360 at the time of its update), before noting a partial rebound off the lows.
Today’s biggest moves: uranium “capitulation,” health care weakness, miners steadier
Uranium stocks plunge after Boss Energy review
The day’s most dramatic theme was uranium — led by Boss Energy, which suffered a sharp one‑day fall after withdrawing the feasibility study for its Honeymoon project in South Australia. The ABC reported Boss was the ASX 200’s worst performer during the session (down around 31% at the time of its update), sparking sympathy selling in peers such as Deep Yellow and Paladin Energy. [3]
IG’s afternoon report said Boss’ project review “significantly deviates” from earlier forecasts and flags lower production and higher costs from FY2027, leading the company to withdraw the existing feasibility study as a guide to future performance.
MarketIndex’s live commentary captured the market psychology bluntly: “no one is buying the dip” when the cost outlook shifts and the new economic study introduces uncertainty.
Health care hits multi‑year low
IG also flagged the ASX 200 health care sector sinking to its lowest level in more than six years (since August 2019), naming declines in Pro Medicus, Ansell, and Telix Pharmaceuticals on the day.
Miners up, energy down — despite an overnight oil jump
In contrast, IG said big miners gained as iron ore improved (it cited iron ore around US$104.15 in its session reference), with Rio Tinto, BHP, and Fortescue modestly higher.
Energy was more complicated. IG noted oil had risen overnight on news of a US blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, yet the ASX energy sector still declined in local trade. Reuters’ global markets wrap likewise referenced an oil rebound tied to that blockade.
The corporate headlines moving Australian stocks on 18.12.2025
Austal wins a $1.03 billion Australian government shipbuilding contract
Defence shipbuilder Austal secured one of the day’s biggest positive headlines: Reuters reported the company won a government shipbuilding contract worth A$1.03 billion (about US$680m).
Capital Brief added detail: Austal’s subsidiary will design and build 18 landing craft medium vessels for the Australian Army at Henderson, Western Australia, with construction to begin in 2026 and the final vessel scheduled for delivery in 2032.
Why it matters for the ASX: In a market wrestling with growth-stock derating and patchy confidence, long-duration government-backed capex programs can look unusually “defensive” — steady work, visibility, and fewer macro surprises.
Woodside rocked by CEO exit — Meg O’Neill to run BP
Energy heavyweight Woodside was also in focus after CEO Meg O’Neill resigned to become BP’s next chief executive. Reuters said O’Neill will take over at BP on 1 April, with BP appointing an interim CEO in the meantime; Woodside said O’Neill departed immediately and named an acting CEO while it searches for a permanent replacement in Q1 2026. [4]
This leadership shock landed during an already awkward day for the sector, with investors juggling oil-price headlines, global risk sentiment, and company-specific strategy questions.
Banks under a governance microscope: ANZ “second strike,” Bendigo hit by regulators
ANZ dominated bank news after shareholders delivered a second consecutive “strike” against its remuneration report. Reuters said more than 32% of shareholders voted against the pay report (above the 25% threshold), and that CEO Nuno Matos proposed forfeiting his short-term bonus for the year.
The Guardian also reported the second strike and said a subsequent spill vote to remove the board failed, while noting broader shareholder anger around governance and regulatory breaches.
Meanwhile, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank faced coordinated regulatory pressure. Capital Brief reported APRA imposed a $50 million operational risk capital add‑on (effective 1 January 2026) after an independent review found deficiencies in money laundering and terrorism financing risk management, and said AUSTRAC launched an enforcement investigation into compliance with AML/CTF obligations.
Australian Broker News added that Deloitte’s review found significant deficiencies, and cited APRA’s estimate that the capital add‑on would reduce Bendigo’s Level 2 CET1 ratio by about 17 basis points, while the bank remained above APRA’s “unquestionably strong” benchmark.
Market takeaway: Investors continue to treat Australian bank earnings as resilient, but the governance and compliance cycle is forcing boards to spend more on risk and controls — and that can pressure margins over time.
Netwealth agrees to pay more than $100m to affected super clients
In financial services, Netwealth was a key story after reaching a deal with ASIC to compensate clients linked to the failed First Guardian super fund. The ABC reported Netwealth will pay more than $100 million to more than 1,000 clients, aiming to pay the face value of their First Guardian investment by 30 January (subject to court approval).
The ABC said Netwealth admitted it failed to obtain enough information about First Guardian to understand the risks, and that the settlement increases pressure on other groups involved in distributing or overseeing the products.
Santos: $1.073b received from Fluor, with net proceeds of $240m
Energy name Santos also had a material company-specific headline. Capital Brief reported Fluor paid $1.073 billion, with net proceeds of $240 million to be recognised on Santos’ balance sheet after GST and legal fees, tied to a long-running dispute regarding the Gladstone LNG project.
Bapcor spikes on CEO resignation
Retail/consumer discretionary saw one standout: auto parts retailer Bapcor jumped after CEO Angus McKay resigned after about 16 months in the role. The ABC noted a near‑10% jump at the time of its post, while IG’s afternoon report described gains above 13% at one point and said no reason was provided for the sudden departure. [5]
IDP Education trims FY2026 guidance after revenue recognition change
Education exporter IDP Education was in focus after a technical accounting change. IG reported IDP will recognise student placement revenue at the census date (rather than registration), aligning practices across regions — boosting FY2025 revenue but cutting FY2026 earnings by about $2 million and lowering guidance.
Macro backdrop: population, household wealth, AUD and commodities
Beyond stocks, the day delivered fresh domestic data and cross‑market signals:
- Australia’s population rose to 27.6 million (as of 30 June 2025), with annual growth of 1.5%, slower than recent peaks; the ABS breakdown included net overseas migration of 305,600 in the year to June.
- Household wealth rose 3.1% (about $551.3 billion) in the September quarter, driven by stronger house prices and higher superannuation balances, according to ABS figures cited by the ABC. [6]
- The ABC’s late‑morning snapshot showed spot gold around US$4,340/oz, Brent crude near US$59.68/bbl, and iron ore about US$106.95/tonne at the time cited.
Why it matters for markets: A firmer wealth effect can support consumption and bank asset quality, while commodities remain the crucial “second engine” for the ASX — often offsetting global tech volatility.
ASX 200 forecast and outlook: where strategists see the market heading
With the index hovering just under the psychologically important 8,600 region for much of December, today’s commentary blended near‑term caution with still‑constructive medium‑term forecasts.
Morgan Stanley: base-case upside into 2026
A Morgan Stanley strategist forecast cited in today’s coverage suggested Australian equities could still rise in 2026, with expectations of around 7% price upside and 10%–11% total returns including dividends. [7]
Livewire’s summary of Morgan Stanley’s outlook said the bank set a 2026 ASX 200 target of 9,250 and projected earnings growth after several years of flat-to-negative outcomes. [8]
Technical and positioning watch: 200-day average, “selective” tape, and year-end seasonality
MarketIndex’s 18 December wrap emphasised that the market had been closing below the 200‑day moving average (a level many institutions track), while also arguing volatility remained low heading into a seasonally stronger stretch of the calendar.
IG likewise framed the day as a tug‑of‑war between softer global sentiment and Australia’s bank-and-miner-heavy composition, with tech and uranium the outsized drags.
What to watch next: the three pressures shaping “Australia stock market today” — and tomorrow
As 2025 heads into its final stretch, Australia’s share market is being pulled by three dominant forces:
- Global tech confidence: When the US market re-litigates AI valuation and capex sustainability, ASX growth names (and sometimes the whole tape) tend to wobble.
- Rates repricing at home: Traders are paying close attention to shifting expectations around the RBA’s path, which can reprice bank valuations and rate-sensitive sectors quickly.
- Company-specific shocks: Today’s session was a reminder that single-stock events — Boss Energy’s update, Woodside’s CEO exit, ANZ’s remuneration strike, Austal’s contract win — can dominate index narratives even when the headline move is small. [9]
References
1. www.abc.net.au, 2. www.abc.net.au, 3. www.abc.net.au, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.abc.net.au, 6. www.abc.net.au, 7. www.theaustralian.com.au, 8. www.livewiremarkets.com, 9. www.abc.net.au
