Australia Stock Market Today (25 December 2025): ASX Closed for Christmas as ASX 200 Ends Week Higher, Aussie Dollar Jumps and Miners Watch Record Metals

Sydney — Australia’s stock market is closed today, Thursday 25 December 2025, as the ASX cash market observes Christmas Day (and will also be closed on Boxing Day, Friday 26 December). The final session before the break ran on Wednesday 24 December with an early finish, setting up a four-day pause that leaves investors digesting global moves, record-setting commodities and shifting interest-rate expectations before trading resumes next week. ^[1]

With liquidity thinned across global markets on the holiday, the focus for Australian investors has moved from “what happened today” to what will matter most when the ASX reopens: bank-rate pricing, the Australian dollar’s strength, and whether surging metals prices continue to support heavyweight miners into year-end. ^[2]

Is the ASX open today? Holiday closure and the next trading session

The ASX trading calendar lists Thursday 25 December as closed (no trading day and no settlement), followed by another full-market closure on Friday 26 December. The exchange also notes that the last business day before Christmas Day (Wednesday 24 December) is an early close, and Wednesday 31 December is also scheduled to close early. ^[3]

In its Christmas Eve market coverage, ABC reported the ASX would be back next Monday, 29 December, after the holiday shutdown. ^[4]

ASX 200 last close: Banks eased, miners held up, week finished higher

Because the market is closed today, the most recent read on “Australia stock market today” comes from the Christmas Eve session.

ABC’s market wrap put the ASX 200 down 0.4% to 8,763 in the shortened Christmas Eve trade, while still finishing the week 1.6% higher overall. Sector performance was broadly weaker, with mining the notable exception as it stayed marginally positive amid strength in industrial metals. ^[5]

The same update highlighted the familiar pre-holiday dynamic: big banks weighed on the index, while miners benefited from commodity strength. ABC noted financials were lower on the day, with the major banks down between roughly 0.2% and 1%. ^[6]

Company-level moves also stood out in thin trading:

DroneShield gained after announcing a new contract.
Lendlease rose on a Sydney Metro development win.
Monash IVF fell after a consortium withdrew its bid. ^[7]

Australian dollar strengthens: Rate expectations and commodity support in focus

One of the biggest cross-asset signals heading into the break was the Australian dollar pushing to about 67 US cents, which ABC described as its highest level since October 2024. ^[8]

The currency strength matters for Australian equities in two ways:

It can pressure exporters’ translated earnings, particularly for companies with significant offshore revenue bases.
It can coincide with “risk-on” commodity momentum—supportive for materials—while also reflecting changing views on domestic rates.

On the rates side, Reuters’ account of the RBA’s December meeting minutes said policymakers discussed conditions under which a rate rise might need to be considered in 2026, as inflation risk tilted higher after stronger readings. Reuters reported the cash rate was held at 3.60%, with markets seeing the probability of a February hike at around the mid‑20% range. ^[9]

ABC also pointed to the next major domestic catalyst: December-quarter inflation data due in late January, ahead of the RBA’s early-February meeting. ^[10]

Separately, Commonwealth Bank’s economics team said it expects the RBA to raise rates by 0.25% in February, and outlined a scenario where the cash rate could reach 3.85% by end‑2026 if inflation remains sticky. ^[11]

Commodities drive the narrative: Record gold and copper, iron ore steady

For the ASX—where materials and energy carry outsized weight—commodity pricing has been the most important holiday-week input.

ABC’s Christmas Eve snapshot showed:

Spot gold near record territory (around US$4,495/oz at the time of its update),
Iron ore around US$104/tonne, and
Oil broadly steady. ^[12]

From a longer-horizon perspective, Australia’s federal Resources and Energy Quarterly (December 2025) said the outlook for Australia’s resource and energy export earnings had strengthened largely due to surging gold prices, and forecast total export earnings to remain broadly around $383 billion in 2025–26 before easing slightly the following year. It also flagged that gold is expected to become Australia’s second-largest export behind iron ore in its outlook period. ^[13]

The same government report projected iron ore export earnings to decline over time as prices ease, with earnings forecast to fall from $116 billion (2024–25) to $114 billion (2025–26) and $107 billion (2026–27). ^[14]

Westpac’s December commodities update struck a similar big-picture tone—strong 2025 performance led by metals, but a more cautious 2026 outlook. Westpac said its broad commodity index rose strongly in 2025, while its forecasts look for a more modest retreat by end‑2026, including a call for iron ore to fall toward US$83/tonne by December 2026 in its base case. ^[15]

Meanwhile, the RBA’s Index of Commodity Prices release (December 2025 preliminary estimates) indicated the index was down on the year in Australian dollar terms, as gains in gold and rural commodities were more than offset by declines in areas like LNG and thermal coal. ^[16]

Global lead: Wall Street records, but Christmas liquidity is thin

While Australia’s market is shut today, global risk sentiment still matters—particularly because US equities set the tone for the next local open.

Reuters reported that on Wednesday 24 December 2025 (a shortened session), both the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at record highs, continuing a run of gains associated with the seasonal “Santa rally” narrative. ^[17]

Associated Press similarly described US stocks edging to more records in holiday-shortened trading, with light volumes. ^[18]

For market structure, US exchanges were closed on Christmas Day (25 December) and had early closes on Christmas Eve, according to Barron’s market-hours guide—conditions that typically suppress liquidity and can amplify short-term moves in currencies and commodities. ^[19]

Corporate and sector headlines circulating into the break

Even in a week dominated by macro and commodities, stock-specific news continues to set up post-holiday positioning.

Real estate and retail-linked plays: Scentre Group deal in focus

Reuters reported the Australian Retirement Trust would buy a near 20% stake in Scentre Group’s Westfield Sydney asset for A$864 million, part of Scentre’s broader capital recycling and development strategy. ^[20]

With markets shut today, this kind of headline can become a “first-week-back” talking point—especially for REITs, retail landlords, and developers.

Consumer discretionary: Boxing Day spending expectations

On the consumer side, The Guardian reported forecasts that Australians could spend about $1.6 billion on Boxing Day sales, with spending over the post‑Christmas week also expected to rise year-on-year, while the consumer regulator warned about misleading sales tactics. ^[21]

For ASX investors, that frames the near-term debate around retailers: whether heavy discounting boosts volumes enough to offset margin pressure and cost inflation.

Australia stock market forecast: What strategists are watching into year-end and 2026

With the ASX closed today, the “forecast” conversation is doing most of the work—especially for investors positioning into the final sessions of 2025 and the first data-heavy weeks of 2026.

Near-term: Can the “Santa rally” extend when the ASX reopens?

IG’s ASX 200 afternoon report earlier this week described a holiday-thinned rally and referenced an end‑of‑year target around 8,850 in its technical framing, noting that volume conditions can exaggerate moves in either direction. ^[22]

The practical takeaway: if offshore markets stay firm and metals remain elevated, materials and rate-sensitive cyclicals could keep leading. If yields push higher or the Aussie dollar keeps climbing, exporters and high‑multiple growth stocks can face pressure.

2026 playbook: Rates, earnings, China and AI remain the big levers

CommSec’s 2026 outlook identified several themes likely to shape markets early next year: earnings seasons, central bank policy, AI investment trends, and China’s growth outlook and commodity demand—all of which matter disproportionately for Australia’s index makeup. ^[23]

And on domestic rates, both Reuters and CBA’s economics team have put a clear marker down: the market is treating 2026 as a year where the RBA may need to stay restrictive—or even tighten—if inflation proves persistent. ^[24]

What to watch when the ASX reopens next week

With trading set to resume after the Christmas shutdown, the first session back is likely to be shaped by a short list of variables:

AUD direction: further strength can reshape leadership across exporters vs. domestic cyclicals. ^[25]
Commodities: follow-through in gold/copper supports miners; any reversal tests the rally’s durability. ^[26]
Rate pricing: markets are sensitive to any signal that February is “live” for the RBA, with CPI timing looming. ^[27]
Holiday retail read-through: Boxing Day demand (and discount intensity) can influence sentiment in consumer names. ^[28]
Year-end mechanics: with another early close on 31 December, liquidity conditions may stay thinner than usual. ^[29]

Bottom line

Australia’s stock market isn’t trading today because the ASX is closed for Christmas Day, but the setup for the next open is already clear: record-setting metals, a stronger Australian dollar, and a rate outlook that’s shifted from “cuts” to a renewed risk of tightening—all against a backdrop of Wall Street at fresh highs and global holiday-thinned liquidity. ^[30]

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