Australian shares eased lower on Tuesday, 9 December 2025, as investors digested a cautious – and arguably hawkish – Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision and a softer global risk backdrop.
The S&P/ASX 200 fell around 0.4% (about 34 points) to roughly 8,590, while the broader All Ordinaries index also slipped around 0.4% to just under 8,880. [1] All 11 major sectors finished in the red, with energy and information technology leading the declines. [2]
Market recap: ASX 200 extends its pullback
After touching an all‑time high near 9,115 points in mid‑October, the ASX 200 has been in a choppier phase, retreating to a low around 8,383 in late November, a pullback of roughly 7.7%. [3]
Coming into today, the index had staged a modest rebound but was struggling to break materially higher. At around 3:30pm AEDT, it was trading near 8,588, down about 0.42% on the day, according to IG’s afternoon report, before closing only slightly above that level. [4]
Forex.com described the session as the worst in about six days, noting that all 11 ASX sectors were lower, with risk appetite hit by a more hawkish read‑through from the RBA’s statement. [5]
From a regional perspective, the Australian market moved in step with broader Asia:
- A Bloomberg/Swissinfo market wrap reported that Asia‑Pacific equities fell about 0.4% on average, tracking overnight declines on Wall Street as traders fretted over how aggressively the US Federal Reserve will ease policy in 2026. [6]
- Within that report, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was specifically cited as falling 0.4%, aligning with domestic estimates. [7]
In other words, today’s ASX slide was part local story, part global risk reset.
RBA holds at 3.6% – and keeps the door open to a 2026 rate hike
The central event for the Australia stock market today was the RBA’s final policy meeting of 2025.
What the RBA did
- The RBA left the cash rate on hold at 3.6%, the fourth straight meeting at that level after a cumulative 75 basis points of cuts earlier in 2025. [8]
- The Board highlighted that inflation has picked up again above the top of its 2–3% target band, with signs it is becoming broader and more persistent, particularly in housing. [9]
Governor Michele Bullock struck a notably firm tone in her press conference:
- She said the Board “didn’t consider the case for a rate cut at all” at this meeting and that 2026 outcomes will be a choice between an extended hold or a possible rate rise. [10]
- Bullock emphasised that the RBA is “alert” to a more broad‑based pick‑up in inflation, but cautious about how much signal to take from the new monthly CPI series, which recently printed stronger than expected. [11]
Market reaction was swift:
- ABC’s markets live blog noted that as the governor spoke, the ASX 200 extended its loss to around 0.4%, while the Australian dollar climbed to roughly US$0.664. [12]
- Bloomberg reporting similarly highlighted that Australia’s three‑year bond yield rose to its highest level since last November as traders priced higher odds of a 2026 rate hike. [13]
What economists are saying
Major banks and market strategists now see a narrower path for further easing:
- NAB economists argue that February 2026 is now a “live meeting” for a rate hike, given the RBA’s shift toward emphasising upside inflation risks. [14]
- ANZ’s head of Australian economics expects the cash rate to stay at 3.6% for an “extended period”, but concedes that the risk of a hike in the first half of 2026 is rising. [15]
- Market pricing now fully discounts a 25bp hike by mid‑2026, according to ABC’s summary of futures market moves. [16]
Taken together, today’s “hold” was hawkish in effect, and equity markets responded accordingly.
Sector moves: energy and tech at the back of the pack
The Australia stock market today saw broad‑based weakness, with every major GICS sector closing lower. [17]
Energy: hit by oil and RBA
Energy shares were under particular pressure:
- Woodside Energy, Santos, Beach Energy and Viva Energy all traded around 1–1.6% lower during the session, reflecting a combination of weaker crude prices and worries about future domestic demand if rates stay restrictive for longer. [18]
- Overnight, West Texas Intermediate crude slipped after its biggest drop in almost three weeks, as traders focused on signs of oversupply. [19]
Lower oil prices squeeze revenue expectations for producers just as the RBA signals it may have to lean against inflation again in 2026. That combination left the energy index at the bottom of the ASX leaderboard.
Technology: global growth worries bite
Tech stocks also struggled:
- ABC’s sector summary showed information technology among the worst performers, as the local market followed a softer lead from the Nasdaq and global growth concerns. [20]
- MarketIndex’s live blog noted persistent selling pressure in growth names such as Life360 and Zip, which “failed to hold recent gains” after sharp, volatile rebounds earlier in the quarter. [21]
With valuations in many tech and growth names still elevated after a multi‑year rally, the hint of a tighter‑for‑longer RBA path is an obvious headwind.
Materials and financials: mixed day for market heavyweights
The heavyweight materials and financials sectors – which together account for a large share of the ASX 200 – were more mixed:
- Big miners:
- Fortescue Metals and Rio Tinto traded modestly higher intraday despite a small decline in iron ore futures around US$101 a tonne, as investors looked through near‑term commodity noise toward a more supportive Chinese policy backdrop. [22]
- BHP was roughly flat, reflecting offsetting forces of a firmer copper outlook (Citi remains bullish on prices into 2026) and broader market caution. [23]
- Banks:
- National Australia Bank and ANZ edged higher at one stage, while Commonwealth Bank and Westpacslipped. This divergence is consistent with investors rotating within the sector in response to yield‑curve moves and relative valuation differences. [24]
Overall, these two sectors helped limit the downside, but not enough to offset the drag from energy and IT.
Stock stories: Bapcor tumbles, defence and uranium names rally
Beyond the index level, stock‑specific news played a big role in the Australia stock market today.
Bapcor collapses on profit warning
Automotive parts retailer Bapcor was the worst performer on the ASX 200, plunging around 20–21% after slashing its profit outlook. [25]
- A trading update flagged that underlying FY26 net profit is expected to fall more than 40% year‑on‑year, significantly below already‑downgraded market expectations. [26]
- MarketIndex highlighted that short interest in Bapcor is near record highs (around 6%), amplifying volatility as investors reassess the recovery timeline. [27]
The move leaves the stock at its lowest level since around 2015, and more than 50% down year‑to‑date.
Austal, DroneShield and Deep Yellow headline the winners
On the upside, defence and uranium stocks featured prominently:
- ABC’s closing snapshot identified Austal, DroneShield and Deep Yellow as among the top three gainers on the ASX 200 today. [28]
- Market participants pointed to ongoing defence spending themes and strong uranium pricing as key supports for these names, even on a day when the wider market was under pressure. [29]
Earlier in the session, MarketIndex also flagged a cluster of resource and battery‑metal names on the winners list, including Nickel Industries, IGO and Paladin Energy, while NRW Holdings, Lynas Rare Earths, Life360, Greatland Resources and Zip were among the larger intraday losers. [30]
Where the Australian share market stands in late 2025
Zooming out from today’s moves, the ASX 200 remains positive for the year, but has lagged some global peers.
2025 performance and valuation
IG’s recent ASX 200 market outlook for 2026 summarises the year‑to‑date picture:
- As of early December, the ASX 200 is up about 5.4% in 2025, setting up a third consecutive year of gains. [31]
- On a total‑return basis (including dividends), the accumulation index is up almost 8.8% year‑to‑date. [32]
- However, the local market has underperformed many global indices, in part because the ASX has relatively low technology exposure and has been hit harder by the re‑acceleration in domestic inflation. [33]
Valuations are no longer cheap: IG estimates the ASX 200’s 12‑month forward P/E ratio at around 18.1×, versus a long‑run average near 14.8×, leaving the index trading at a noticeable premium to its history. [34]
Sector winners and losers in 2025
The same analysis highlights a stark performance gap across sectors: [35]
- Leaders in 2025
- Materials: +24.5%
- Industrials: +11.4%
- Utilities: +9.2%
- Laggards
- Health care: –20.4%
- Information technology: –15.4%
That pattern helped shape today’s session too: materials once again provided some resilience, while IT and defensives such as health care continued to struggle.
Technical picture: still in a consolidation band
Technically, analysts see the ASX 200 as mid‑range in a still‑intact bull market:
- After its October peak near 9,115 and November low around 8,383, the index is now trading in the upper half of that range, just under 8,600 after today’s pullback. [36]
- IG’s technical team argues that as long as 8,383 holds, the bias remains for a push back towards 8,830–8,850 into year‑end, and potentially into the 9,300–9,500 area by the end of 2026 if the macro backdrop evolves broadly as forecast. [37]
However, they also warn that a sustained break below the November low would negate the bullish setup, opening scope for a deeper correction toward 8,200. [38]
For short‑term traders, today’s decline is therefore uncomfortable but not yet technically decisive.
Macro and 2026 outlook for Australian equities
Today’s Australia stock market story cannot be separated from the evolving macro picture.
Growth, inflation and the RBA path
IG’s macro projections and the RBA’s own forecasts sketch out the following baseline: [39]
- GDP:
- Australian GDP grew 0.6% in Q2 2025, or 1.8% year‑on‑year, aided by earlier rate cuts, stronger real incomes and lower personal taxes.
- Growth is expected to stabilise near 2% year‑on‑year in 2026 as global demand slows and the tailwind from rate cuts fades.
- Inflation:
- After dipping back into the 2–3% target band in early 2025, inflation has re‑accelerated, largely driven by persistent housing‑related pressures.
- The RBA now expects trimmed mean inflation around 3.2% in the first half of 2026, easing to about 2.7% by the end of 2026.
- Labour market:
- Unemployment has drifted from 4.1% to about 4.3% this year and is projected to hover near 4.4% through 2026–27, still low by historical standards.
Given this backdrop – solid but not spectacular growth and still‑sticky inflation – the central bank is reluctant to promise further easing. MarketPulse and other commentators note that after cutting the cash rate from 4.35% to 3.6% via three moves in 2025, the RBA is now effectively in “pause and assess” mode, with the risk of renewed tighteningif inflation proves more persistent. [40]
China, commodities and the resource trade
For the ASX, China remains crucial:
- RBC analysis of the recent Chinese Politburo meeting, cited by MarketIndex, suggests fiscal policy will play a larger role in 2026, with room for a wider deficit to support infrastructure and investment. [41]
- Monetary policy is expected to stay “moderately loose”, providing liquidity support rather than aggressive rate cuts. [42]
- RBC sees this backdrop as positive for iron ore and copper demand, naming BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue and copper‑exposed names like Sandfire and South32 as key beneficiaries. [43]
This is consistent with IG’s view that the materials sector is best placed to outperform again in 2026, given relatively attractive valuations and supportive commodity price signals. [44]
Global view: constructive but volatile 2026
Big international houses echo a “cautiously constructive” macro story for 2026:
- LGT’s December 2025 investment outlook describes resilient economic activity supported by the lagged impact of monetary easing, but warns that renewed inflation pressures will limit how far central banks can cut, creating upside risks for bond yields. [45]
- Deutsche Bank’s CIO office expects another broadly positive year for global equities in 2026, albeit with heightened volatility as policy rates stay restrictive and geopolitical risks linger. [46]
For Australian equities, that implies:
- Support from global risk appetite, especially if the Fed manages a soft landing;
- But periodic drawdowns as bond yields jump, central banks push back on inflation, or China‑related headlines destabilise commodities.
AUD strength: a headwind and a signal
Today’s Australian dollar story is also intertwined with equities:
- The Aussie traded near US$0.664, at or close to a 12‑week high, as traders interpreted Bullock’s message as more hawkish than many peers. [47]
- MarketPulse and other FX specialists have framed the recent move as a “major bullish breakout” in AUD/USD, supported by technicals and the perception that the RBA may end up less dovish than the US Federal Reserve in 2026. [48]
A stronger currency is a double‑edged sword for the ASX:
- It signals confidence in Australia’s relative macro position;
- But it weighs on exporters and companies with large offshore earnings, a group that includes many resource and industrial names.
What investors are watching next
With today’s trading done, attention quickly shifts to upcoming data and events that could move the Australia stock market through the rest of December and into early 2026.
Key domestic data
IG’s afternoon note and ABC’s RBA coverage highlighted several data points the central bank will be watching closely before its next meeting on 3 February 2026: [49]
- Labour Force report for November – due Thursday, 11 December 2025
- Westpac Consumer Confidence (December) – Tuesday, 16 December 2025
- Monthly CPI indicator for November – 7 January 2026
- Labour Force report for December – 22 January 2026
- Monthly CPI indicator for December – due the week of 28 January 2026
Any upside surprises in employment or inflation will reinforce the RBA’s hawkish tilt and could pressure rate‑sensitive sectors like tech, consumer discretionary and REITs.
Global catalysts
Abroad, investors remain fixated on:
- This week’s US Federal Reserve meeting, where a widely expected 25bp rate cut may be accompanied by a more cautious path for 2026 easing. [50]
- The trajectory of US bond yields, which have recently pushed higher again, underpinning the US dollar and tightening global financial conditions. [51]
- Ongoing policy signals from China, where a more supportive fiscal stance could underpin demand for iron ore, copper and lithium, key to many ASX miners’ earnings. [52]
Bottom line
For Australia stock market today, the message is clear:
- The ASX 200 slipped about 0.4%, extending a modest pullback from October’s highs and registering its weakest session in roughly a week. [53]
- The decline was broad‑based, with energy and technology leading the losses and Bapcor’s profit‑warning‑driven plunge standing out at the stock level. [54]
- The RBA’s decision to hold at 3.6% while openly discussing the conditions for a 2026 hike has reset the market narrative from “how far can they cut?” to “how long will they stay tight – and could they tighten again?”. [55]
At the same time, Australia’s share market remains up mid‑single digits for 2025, supported by strong materials and industrials performance and a reasonably constructive global outlook for 2026 – albeit one that features higher‑for‑longer rates, elevated valuations and more volatility than investors grew used to earlier in the cycle. [56]
As always, this article is general information only and not financial advice. Investors should consider their own objectives and consult a licensed adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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