Australia’s share market finished modestly lower on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, with the S&P/ASX 200 easing for a third straight session as weakness in banks, energy, healthcare and consumer staples outweighed a strong rebound across gold and lithium-linked resources stocks. [1]
The headline index closed down 13.7 points (‑0.16%) at 8,585.2, after a choppy day in which advancers narrowly beat decliners across the broader market—an intraday tug-of-war reflecting a late-year market stuck between “Santa rally” hopes and renewed concern about 2026 interest rates. [2]
ASX close: What happened in the Australian share market on 17 December 2025
The ASX 200 ended the day lower by about 0.2%, with 10 of 11 sectors in the red and Materials the standout gainer as bullion-linked stocks surged. [3]
Key market levels and themes at the close:
- ASX 200: 8,585.2 (‑0.16%) [4]
- All Ordinaries: 8,874.2 (‑0.07%) [5]
- Small Ords: 3,683.7 (+0.77%) [6]
- All Tech: 3,333.1 (‑1.00%) [7]
- AUD/USD: ~0.6617 (down on the day) [8]
Sector performance was shaped by a familiar late-2025 pattern: resources strength (helped by gold and lithium) versus a broad pullback in rate-sensitive and high‑valuation growth areas (including parts of tech and healthcare). [9]
Why the ASX fell today: Banks and rate uncertainty returned to the driver’s seat
Financials were a drag on Wednesday, and the tone around big banks has shifted from “steady tailwind” to “key risk” in just a few sessions.
Reuters reported that the financial sector fell about 0.4%, with the big four banks edging lower, led by Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)—down around 0.8%, marking its worst session since early August. [10]
The bigger narrative isn’t just a one-day move—it’s the market’s attempt to reprice 2026:
- The government’s MYEFO (Mid‑Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) reset inflation assumptions higher (details below), hardening the idea that the Reserve Bank may face renewed pressure to lean against price growth. [11]
- MarketIndex noted that some economists (including teams at major banks) are now discussing possible rate hikes in early 2026, adding a fresh headwind for rate‑sensitive sectors. [12]
At the same time, the forecasting backdrop has become less unanimous: while some banks are now openly modelling hikes, others have moved to a “higher for longer” hold rather than cuts (more on Westpac below). [13]
Commodities split the tape: Oil sank to 2021-lows, but gold and iron ore lifted
Wednesday’s ASX session was a case study in how Australia’s market can fall even when resources rally—because energy and the big banks carry so much index weight.
Oil: a major global macro shock hitting ASX energy
A sharp drop in crude prices weighed heavily on energy names and sentiment:
- MarketIndex’s morning wrap flagged Brent crude down about 2.5% to ~US$58.8, the lowest close since February 2021, after Russia‑Ukraine peace headlines encouraged the view that supply risks could ease. [14]
- By the close, the ASX Energy sector was down about 1.38%, with Woodside among notable laggards. [15]
Sharecafe likewise tied local energy weakness to crude sliding to levels “unseen since 2021,” pointing to a market debate over supply/demand balance and geopolitics. [16]
Gold and silver: safe-haven demand kept shining
While oil fell, precious metals ran the other way:
- ABC reported spot gold up and highlighted that silver topped US$65 per ounce, keeping precious‑metal equities in focus. [17]
- MarketIndex’s live coverage said the All Ords Gold index was up strongly and trading around record territory, reflecting sustained investor demand for gold exposure. [18]
Iron ore: support from China restocking
Iron ore also added ballast to miners:
Reuters (via ABC) reported that iron ore futures climbed to a one‑week high, helped by improved spot market liquidity and indications that Chinese steelmakers began restocking ahead of Lunar New Year demand. [19]
The winners and losers on the ASX today
Best blue‑chip gainers: lithium and gold led
Resources stocks delivered the day’s standout upside, with lithium names boosted by stronger pricing signals offshore:
- Reuters cited a jump in lithium miners after J.P. Morgan raised its lithium pricing outlook, with IGO up around 12% and Liontown up around 11.8%. [20]
- MarketIndex added that benchmark lithium carbonate futures in China were up strongly, supporting the “lithium bull” narrative returning into year‑end. [21]
MarketIndex’s end‑of‑day leaderboard included major winners such as IGO (+11.6%), Genesis Minerals (+6.4%), Pilbara Minerals (+4.6%) and multiple gold producers higher. [22]
Worst blue‑chip losers: staples, healthcare, and energy pressure
On the downside, the session’s biggest pain points were stock‑specific (earnings/guidance) and sector‑wide (rates/oil):
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) was the top large‑cap faller (down about 9.3%). [23]
- Healthcare names including Telix Pharmaceuticals (down about 6.6%) and CSL (down about 2.1%) weighed on the broader Health Care sector. [24]
- Woodside fell about 2.4% amid energy-sector weakness tied to crude. [25]
Corporate news driving the Australian stock market today
Treasury Wine plunges after profit downgrade and buyback decision
Treasury Wine Estates was a major drag on the ASX after flagging weaker near‑term earnings:
Reuters reported the company forecast sharply lower operating earnings for the first half of FY2026 and shelved the remaining portion of its share buyback, sending the stock sharply lower. [26]
MarketIndex’s live tape underscored how large the guidance shock looked relative to expectations, noting the stock opened deeply lower and the 1H guidance was a significant miss versus consensus. [27]
GrainCorp slumps on FY26 volume outlook and Canada divestment
GrainCorp was another headline mover:
- MarketIndex reported GrainCorp opened sharply lower and was down around 18% in early trade, pointing to the company’s FY26 receival volume guidance as the key catalyst. [28]
- In its ASX release, GrainCorp said its preliminary FY26 receival volumes were 11.0–12.0 million tonnes (vs 13.3 million tonnes in FY25) amid lower crop expectations, commodity price impacts, and near‑record global supply pressuring margins. [29]
- The same announcement detailed the sale of GrainsConnect Canada, valuing it at C$150m (cash‑free, debt‑free), with an expected A$5–10m loss on sale, and said the deal does not impact GrainCorp’s “through‑the‑cycle EBITDA” target of A$320m. [30]
Santos announces divestments as portfolio optimisation continues
Energy major Santos was in focus amid sector weakness, but the company also delivered significant corporate news:
In an ASX/media release dated 17 December 2025, Santos said it executed an agreement to divest its 42.86% operated interest in the Mahalo Joint Venture (Queensland’s Bowen Basin) to Comet Ridge, for A$40m upfront plus up to A$20m contingent linked to production milestones. [31]
Santos also said it had recently completed divestments to Eni Australia involving interests in the Petrel and Tern fields offshore Northern Australia, noting reduced future decommissioning exposure. [32]
Star Entertainment names a new CEO
Reuters also highlighted a leadership change at Star Entertainment, reporting the group appointed Bruce Mathieson Jras CEO, with the stock rising to its highest since mid‑September. [33]
Defence stocks: Austal hit amid Washington scrutiny headlines
One of the sharpest intraday declines came in defence contractor Austal:
- MarketIndex reported Austal was down roughly 11% around midday, citing a report that the White House was preparing an order that could restrict capital returns and executive pay at military contractors. [34]
- A Reuters report said the White House was preparing an executive order that could limit stock buybacks, dividends and executive compensation for major defence contractors, per Punchbowl News. [35]
Macro shock of the day: MYEFO lifts inflation forecasts, complicating the 2026 rate debate
Beyond stocks and commodities, the most market‑relevant macro development on 17 December was the government’s mid‑year budget update.
Reuters reported that in MYEFO the Treasury lifted its inflation forecast to 3.75% for the year ending June 2026 (up from 3% projected in March), while still adding to annual spending plans—effectively leaving monetary policy to do more of the anti‑inflation work if price pressures persist. [36]
Just as important for investors: the rate‑path split between major banks is now out in the open.
- Reuters reported NAB and CBA are expecting the RBA to raise rates in February 2026, with NAB even calling for a second hike in May. [37]
- Reuters also noted Westpac abandoned its rate‑cut calls, now seeing rates on hold throughout 2026. [38]
- ABC led with the same theme, saying Westpac backtracked on a prior “two cuts” view and now forecasts the RBA to stay on hold through 2026. [39]
For the ASX, that debate matters most for banks, property, consumer names and other “duration” stocks whose valuations are sensitive to the discount rate.
ASX forecast and outlook: What investors are watching next
1) Futures and the global lead
Into the session, the offshore lead was cautious rather than outright risk‑off:
- MarketIndex’s morning wrap said ASX 200 futures were up about 10 points early, suggesting a flat‑to‑slightly higher open. [40]
- Sharecafe later described ASX 200 futures around 8,581 (little changed), as investors weighed mixed US signals, including jobs data and falling oil. [41]
2) The “line in the sand” level: the 200‑day moving average
From a technical and positioning standpoint, MarketIndex’s live coverage flagged the ASX 200 trading below the 200‑day moving average during the session and described that zone as a key battleground as the index tries to avoid a deeper pullback. [42]
3) Oil prices vs. the materials rally
If crude remains pinned near multi‑year lows, the energy sector could stay under pressure even if miners continue to benefit from precious metals and iron ore support. [43]
4) Near-term calendar: results, calls and meetings
Sharecafe flagged several local corporate diary items, including Elders results, a Treasury Wine investor call, and AGMs for other names—events that can drive stock‑specific volatility even when the index is range‑bound. [44]
Bottom line: Australia’s stock market is being pulled in two directions
Wednesday’s ASX action can be summed up simply: Australia’s commodity-heavy market rallied where the commodities were rising (gold, lithium, iron ore), and fell where the macro was tightening (banks, oil-linked energy, and high‑valuation defensives and growth names). [45]
With MYEFO reviving the inflation narrative and bank economists openly debating hikes versus “hold,” the path into year‑end looks less like a smooth Santa rally—and more like a market that will demand clearer proof on inflation, rates and global growth before it commits to the next leg. [46]
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.abc.net.au, 4. www.marketindex.com.au, 5. www.marketindex.com.au, 6. www.marketindex.com.au, 7. www.marketindex.com.au, 8. www.marketindex.com.au, 9. www.marketindex.com.au, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.marketindex.com.au, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketindex.com.au, 15. www.marketindex.com.au, 16. www.sharecafe.com.au, 17. www.abc.net.au, 18. www.marketindex.com.au, 19. www.abc.net.au, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.marketindex.com.au, 22. www.marketindex.com.au, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.marketindex.com.au, 25. www.marketindex.com.au, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.marketindex.com.au, 28. www.marketindex.com.au, 29. company-announcements.afr.com, 30. company-announcements.afr.com, 31. www.pngx.com.pg, 32. www.pngx.com.pg, 33. www.tradingview.com, 34. www.marketindex.com.au, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.abc.net.au, 40. www.marketindex.com.au, 41. www.sharecafe.com.au, 42. www.marketindex.com.au, 43. www.marketindex.com.au, 44. www.sharecafe.com.au, 45. www.marketindex.com.au, 46. www.reuters.com
