SYDNEY, Dec. 26, 2025 — Australia’s stock market is closed today for the Boxing Day public holiday, pausing trading in both ASX cash equities and key ASX 24 derivatives. With local price discovery on hold until the next session, investors are spending the day watching offshore signals — especially the latest moves in Asia, the US dollar, and a commodity complex led by fresh record highs in precious metals. [1]
The result: while there’s no “live” ASX 200 tape to follow on December 26, the forces that will likely drive Monday’s open are moving fast — and they’re arriving at a critical moment for portfolios as 2025 heads into its final trading days.
Is the ASX open today?
No. The ASX is closed on Friday, December 26, 2025 (Boxing Day), according to the exchange’s official trading calendar. [2]
It’s not just the sharemarket: ASX 24 is also closed today, meaning the on-exchange futures and options products Australian institutions typically use to hedge and reposition are shut as well. [3]
The last local session was the shortened Christmas Eve trade on Wednesday, December 24, when normal trading ended early. [4]
ABC’s market coverage also flagged that the next time the stock market “operates again” is Monday, December 29 — the next business day after the Christmas/Boxing Day shutdown and the weekend. [5]
Where the ASX left off: ASX 200 slipped on Christmas Eve, but finished the week higher
Australia entered the holiday break with a mixed finish:
- The ASX 200 fell 0.4% (down 33 points) to 8,763 on Christmas Eve.
- Despite the dip, it finished the week up 1.6%, reflecting a firm lead-in to the shutdown. [6]
Sector-wise, the final session before the break had a familiar year-end pattern: broad softness with pockets of commodity strength.
- Mining was the standout, supported by copper trading at record levels, while most other sectors ended in the red. [7]
- Financials eased, with all four major banks down on the day. [8]
In other words: Australia didn’t enter the break in “risk-off” mode — but it also didn’t end 2025’s final full week with a clean, across-the-board Santa rally.
Global markets today: Asia rises in thin holiday trade, even as many exchanges are shut
With Australia closed, the global mood matters more than usual — because Monday’s ASX open will be forced to “catch up” to several sessions of offshore moves.
On Friday (Dec. 26), Asian equities pushed to a six‑week high in thin holiday conditions, with Reuters reporting:
- Japan’s Topix hit a record high, with gains supported by a weaker yen and improved risk appetite.
- South Korea’s market extended its strong 2025 run.
- China’s blue-chip index edged higher as it headed for one of its strongest annual performances in years. [9]
Reuters also noted that markets in Australia were among those closed, keeping liquidity thin across the region. [10]
The big swing factor for Australia: precious metals are rewriting the playbook
For ASX investors, commodity pricing is never just background noise — it directly feeds into heavyweight index sectors, earnings expectations, and the Australian dollar. And right now, commodities are sending a loud signal.
Gold hits another all-time high
Gold surged to a fresh record in early Asian trading on Dec. 26, with Reuters reporting spot prices above US$4,500/oz amid safe-haven demand and expectations tied to US rate cuts. [11]
Silver breaks US$75 for the first time
Silver extended its blistering run, briefly trading above US$75/oz for the first time, driven by a mix of industrial demand, investment flows, tightening inventories, and rate expectations. [12]
Platinum hits a record high as supply tightens
Platinum also surged to an all-time high, with Reuters citing tightening supply dynamics and shifting investor interest within precious metals. [13]
Why this matters for the ASX 200
When the ASX reopens, the most immediate knock-on effects tend to land in:
- Gold producers and royalty names, where realised prices and forward curves can rapidly re-rate earnings expectations.
- Diversified miners with meaningful copper exposure, as copper’s broader “electrification and data centres” narrative stays hot.
- Index-wide sentiment, because an extreme move in precious metals often signals something larger: currency debasement fears, geopolitical tension, or shifting expectations for real interest rates.
With local trading shut today, that repricing pressure doesn’t disappear — it simply queues up for the next open.
Australia’s commodity outlook: what the latest government forecasts mean for miners, energy and the dollar
While prices are jumping in real time offshore, Australia’s most important medium‑term roadmap for resources is the Resources and Energy Quarterly (December 2025) from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The headline message: export earnings are expected to remain historically strong, even if the mix shifts.
Resource export earnings remain huge — with gold rising to No. 2
The department forecasts Australia’s resource and energy export earnings to stay around $383 billion in 2025–26, easing slightly to $374 billion in 2026–27 — and explicitly says surging gold prices are expected to make gold Australia’s second‑largest export behind iron ore. [14]
That’s a major narrative shift for the ASX, because it implies a bigger macro role for the gold complex — not just “another mining subsector,” but a pillar of the national export story.
Iron ore: still the anchor, but headwinds are building
The Quarterly notes iron ore prices have been resilient but are forecast to decline in coming years as supply rises, and it projects Australia’s iron ore export earnings to fall from $116 billion (2024–25) to $107 billion (2026–27). [15]
For Australia’s largest miners — and for the ASX 200 itself — that’s a reminder that “China demand + global supply” remains the central long-run debate, even during a short-term commodity surge.
LNG and coal: softer prices and lower earnings outlook
The same government outlook points to declining LNG export earnings (from $65 billion in 2024–25 to $47 billion by 2026–27) as supply ramps globally and pricing eases. [16]
Coal also features a downshift in earnings expectations over the forecast horizon. [17]
Copper and critical minerals: demand tailwinds remain
The report highlights strong copper market conditions tied to electrification, infrastructure and data centre build-outs, noting record pricing in December and expectations that prices remain elevated through 2026 before easing. [18]
It also flags growth in “other critical minerals” export earnings over time — an important medium-term signal for the pipeline of smaller ASX materials names beyond the mega-caps. [19]
The Australian dollar: stronger currency helps consumers — but complicates exporters
The AUD is back near the 67 US cent level going into the holiday break, with ABC noting a jump to the strongest levels seen since October 2024. [20]
Meanwhile, Reuters reported the US dollar weakening this week amid uncertainty about the path of Fed rate cuts and broader policy expectations — a dynamic that tends to support commodities and commodity currencies. [21]
For ASX investors, a firmer AUD creates a familiar push-pull:
- It can cap gains for exporters and internationally earned profits when translated back into Australian dollars.
- It can reduce imported inflation pressure, which matters for rate expectations and consumer spending narratives.
With commodities surging and the USD under pressure, FX could become an outsized driver of sector leadership when trading resumes.
Retail and consumer shares: Boxing Day spending forecasts put the spotlight on margins
Even with the ASX closed, today is still one of the most important real‑economy dates of the year for consumer companies.
Industry projections from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan suggest Boxing Day spending of around $1.6 billion, with strength expected in household goods, apparel, department stores, and “other retailing.” [22]
The ARA also expects value-driven behaviour to persist into 2026 — a line that matters for ASX-listed retailers because it points to:
- ongoing demand for promotions, and
- potential pressure on gross margins if discounting becomes structural rather than seasonal. [23]
When the market reopens on December 29, investors will likely parse any early read-through for discretionary names — not just “how busy it felt,” but what it implies about pricing power into the new year.
What to watch when the ASX reopens on Monday, December 29
With two holidays and a weekend separating the last ASX close from the next open, Monday can behave less like a normal session and more like a compressed “catch-up trade.” Here are the key items likely to shape the first hour:
1) Global risk tone in holiday-thin markets
Asia has pushed higher despite thin liquidity and multiple closures, suggesting risk appetite is still intact — but low volume can exaggerate moves in either direction. [24]
2) Precious metals momentum
Gold and silver have not just rallied — they’ve made headlines with record prints. If those levels hold, Australia’s gold-linked names could see renewed interest right out of the gate. [25]
3) Resource narrative shift: “gold as No. 2 export”
The federal government’s December Quarterly is explicit that gold’s role in Australia’s export mix is growing fast — a macro framing that can reinforce investor attention on the sector. [26]
4) The Australian dollar
A stronger AUD can reshape leadership within the ASX 200 — often favouring domestics over offshore earners, all else equal. [27]
5) Year-end positioning and liquidity
The final sessions of the year can be dominated by rebalancing, window dressing, and lower depth — especially after a shutdown. That’s not a forecast of direction, but it is a warning about volatility and gaps on open.
The bigger picture: why 2026 could be more volatile than the year-end calm suggests
Even if Monday starts with a “relief rally” tone, strategists are increasingly framing 2026 as a year where investors may have to work harder for returns.
CommSec’s 2026 outlook highlights multiple variables that can swing markets quickly: earnings seasons early in the year, AI investment expectations, central bank decisions, and China’s growth outlook as a key watchpoint for commodity demand. [28]
A separate Reuters poll of equity strategists points to the same tension globally: many expect markets to be higher by end‑2026, but a majority also see a correction as likely along the way — a combination that tends to reward disciplined risk management rather than pure momentum chasing. [29]
Australia’s stock market may be closed today, but the drivers of the next ASX move are very much alive: a global equity bid in thin trade, a US dollar on the back foot, and a commodity complex — especially precious metals — that is forcing investors to rethink what “normal” pricing looks like heading into 2026. [30]
References
1. www.asx.com.au, 2. www.asx.com.au, 3. www.asx.com.au, 4. www.asx.com.au, 5. www.abc.net.au, 6. www.abc.net.au, 7. www.abc.net.au, 8. www.abc.net.au, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.industry.gov.au, 15. www.industry.gov.au, 16. www.industry.gov.au, 17. www.industry.gov.au, 18. www.industry.gov.au, 19. www.industry.gov.au, 20. www.abc.net.au, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.retail.org.au, 23. www.retail.org.au, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.industry.gov.au, 27. www.abc.net.au, 28. www.commbank.com.au, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com
