Australian Stock Market Today 1 December 2025: ASX 200 Falls as ASX Outage and RBA Uncertainty Weigh on Shares

Australia’s share market opened December on a shaky note, with the S&P/ASX 200 slipping as a major outage on the exchange’s announcements platform froze dozens of stocks and stubborn inflation kept interest‑rate nerves elevated. ^[1]

ASX 200 opens December in the red

The S&P/ASX 200 finished Monday down about 0.57%, losing 48.9 points to close near 8,565, while the broader All Ordinaries index fell roughly 0.6% to around 8,867. ^[2]

Small caps fared worse, with the Small Ordinaries index dropping close to 0.8%, underscoring a broad risk‑off tone across the local market. ^[3]

Today’s decline comes after a volatile few weeks. Market analysts note that November was “tough” for the ASX 200, with financial stocks dragging the index lower even as resources and some technology names tried to stabilise performance. ^[4]

Even so, the benchmark remains modestly higher for the year to date — Economic Times data show the S&P/ASX 200 is still up just under 5% in 2025, highlighting how much of this year’s earlier gains have been chipped away by recent volatility. ^[5]

Exchange outage locks 80 companies in trading halts

Monday’s session was overshadowed by a technology failure on the ASX’s announcements platform, which prevented some market‑sensitive company news from being published.

The issue began before 9am AEDT, affecting the release of corporate announcements.
To protect investors, the ASX placed companies that had lodged price‑sensitive news into trading halts. ^[6]
By midday, around 80 companies were affected, with halted securities only allowed to resume trading once their announcements were finally published. ^[7]

The exchange said the outage did not disrupt the core cash‑equities trading and settlement systems and stressed that the issue was not cybersecurity‑related. ^[8]

Still, the operational failure rattled confidence in the bourse operator. ASX Ltd shares dropped about 2.8% on the day and are down roughly 13% so far this year, as regulators including ASIC and the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to scrutinise its governance and risk‑management after an earlier settlement‑system malfunction in December 2024. ^[9]

The shock was felt across the Tasman too: New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index slipped on Monday, with local commentators citing the ASX outage as one factor weighing on sentiment. ^[10]

Sectors and stock movers: miners shine, defensives stumble

Beneath the headline fall in the index, Monday’s trade showed a familiar pattern: resources up, rate‑sensitive and growth sectors down.

MarketIndex data show:

Energy and materials finished modestly higher, reflecting support from stronger commodity prices, particularly silver and copper, which boosted local explorers and producers. ^[11]
High‑valuation sectors such as information technology, healthcare, communication services and financials led the declines, generally losing between 1% and 1.5% for the session. ^[12]

Silver names were stand‑out performers. A cluster of ASX‑listed silver miners, including Unico Silver, Sun Silver, Andean Silver, Boab Metals and Silver Mines, booked double‑digit or high single‑digit percentage gains as investors chased the precious‑metals theme. ^[13]

Among the large caps on the S&P/ASX 200, Economic Times data highlight:

Top gainers:
- Greatland Resources jumped just over 10%.
- Tuas Ltd, Capstone Copper, West African Resources and Fletcher Building each added around 3–5%. ^[14]
Biggest losers:
- AUB Group slumped nearly 18%.
- Metcash slid about 9%, extending weakness after its latest results.
- Digico Infrastructure REIT, Temple & Webster Group and HMC Capital all shed between 7% and 8%. ^[15]

The heavy falls in financials and consumer‑linked names underline investors’ twin concerns: rising funding costs for banks and ongoing pressure on household budgets.

Interest rates, inflation and GDP: why macro is front of mind

Behind Monday’s cautious tone lies a tougher macro backdrop than many hoped for just a few months ago.

Inflation surprise re‑prices rate cut hopes

Fresh monthly CPI data released last week showed inflation accelerating to 3.8% year‑on‑year in October, above expectations of 3.6% and the highest in 10 months. Core (trimmed‑mean) inflation also ticked up to 3.3%. ^[16]

The figures have had three big market consequences:

Rate cut bets have collapsed. Futures markets now see only a small chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia delivering a cut in the next year, with some analysts warning that the next move could be up, not down. ^[17]
The Australian dollar has firmed, reflecting expectations that monetary policy may need to stay restrictive for longer. ^[18]
Investors are increasingly sensitive to any data that might confirm persistent price pressures, such as energy bills, which jumped more than 37% over the past year as subsidies rolled off. ^[19]

RBA on hold — for now

The RBA cut its cash rate to 3.60% in August and has held it steady at that level through its November meeting, describing the stance as “mildly restrictive.” ^[20]

Market pricing and bank research now suggest:

The December 9 meeting is likely to see no change, with ASX 30‑day cash rate futures implying only a single‑digit probability of a move. ^[21]
Westpac’s economics team expects the next cuts to be delayed until 2026, forecasting the cash rate to be trimmed from 3.6% to 3.35% in May 2026 and 3.10% in August 2026, assuming inflation gradually returns to the middle of the 2–3% target band. ^[22]

Other forecasters are even more cautious, arguing that if inflation remains sticky the RBA may need to hike rather than ease in 2026. ^[23]

GDP data around the corner

Economic growth remains sluggish but positive. IG notes that Australia’s Q2 2025 GDP expanded 0.6% quarter‑on‑quarter (1.8% annually), the 15th straight quarter of growth, helped by a rebound in household spending. ^[24]

All eyes now turn to Q3 GDP, due on Wednesday 3 December at 11:30am AEDT, and to the RBA’s Decemberdecision the following week. Weak growth but persistent inflation would reinforce the sense that policy is stuck in a difficult “higher for longer” sweet spot — hardly ideal for rate‑sensitive sectors like banks, real estate and consumer discretionary stocks. ^[25]

What analysts expect for the ASX 200 in 2026

Despite near‑term jitters, most strategists still see upside for Australian equities over the next year, albeit with lower returns and higher volatility than in 2025.

Valuations elevated but not extreme

Northcape Capital’s “Australian Equities: Market Outlook for 2026” notes that the local market delivered around a 12% total return over the first ten months of 2025, but with sharp swings — including a 15% drawdown earlier in the year on US tariff headlines. Resources led the way, returning roughly 25%, while the rest of the market managed closer to 8%. ^[26]

The firm characterises valuations as elevated across most sectors, particularly in technology and banking, yet argues that there are still opportunities in “quality companies at reasonable prices,” especially those with resilient earnings and strong balance sheets. ^[27]

UBS sees moderate gains, led by miners

In a recent outlook, UBS forecast the S&P/ASX 200 to rise to about 8,900 by the end of 2026 — roughly 6% above current levels — with a mining resurgence expected to be a key driver as global demand for commodities such as copper, lithium and rare earths recovers. ^[28]

Monday’s strength in silver and base‑metals names fits that narrative: when investors worry about growth and central‑bank policy, hard‑asset exposures often look more attractive than banks or consumer stocks. ^[29]

Global strategists warn of a correction

A Reuters poll of 87 equity strategists on major global indices published last week found that most major stock markets are expected to trade higher by the end of 2026, but more than half of respondents believe a correction in the coming months is likely. Returns in 2026 are expected to be lower than this year’s surprisingly strong performance. ^[30]

For Australian investors, that implies a bumpy path: modest index‑level gains, frequent bouts of volatility, and significant dispersion between winners (often in resources and select industrials) and laggards (particularly stretched growth stocks and highly leveraged plays). ^[31]

Key risks: from outages to overseas central banks

Monday’s trading glitch is a reminder that operational risk is now firmly on investors’ radar alongside the usual macro themes. The ASX is already under pressure from both the RBA and ASIC to prove that its market infrastructure is robust after previous systems issues, and today’s outage will likely invite further scrutiny — and possibly higher investment and compliance costs for the exchange operator itself. ^[32]

Beyond Australia’s shores, global central banks remain a swing factor for the ASX. On the same day local investors digested their own inflation worries, Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that the BOJ could raise rates at its December 18–19 meeting — a hawkish turn that pressured global equities and contributed to the cautious tone on the ASX. ^[33]

If the US Federal Reserve, BOJ or European Central Bank tighten more than expected, risk assets globally — including Australian shares — could face renewed selling, even if the RBA stays on hold. ^[34]

What this means for investors

For everyday investors, Monday’s moves reinforce a few themes:

Short‑term volatility is normal. A 0.5–1.0% index move, even when triggered by a headline such as an exchange outage, is not unusual in a market that has already experienced double‑digit swings this year. ^[35]
Interest‑rate sensitivity matters. With inflation still above target and the RBA signalling caution, sectors tied closely to borrowing costs — banks, REITs, highly leveraged growth stocks — may remain volatile as each new data release shifts rate expectations. ^[36]
Resources and quality defensives may remain in favour. Strategists pointing to a mining‑led upswing and to resilient, cash‑generative businesses suggest that stock‑pickers focused on balance‑sheet strength and pricing power could be better positioned than those chasing speculative growth. ^[37]

As always, any allocation decisions should be based on personal circumstances, time horizon and risk tolerance. The information above is general in nature and not personal financial advice.

Over the next two weeks, Q3 GDP, the RBA’s December decision and any follow‑up from regulators on today’s ASX outage will set the tone for how the Australian stock market finishes 2025 — and how it sets up for 2026. ^[38]