Australian Stock Market Today: ASX 200 Climbs as Miners Hit Records and RBA Rate-Hike Bets Build

Australia’s stock market bounced back on Thursday, December 11, 2025, as the S&P/ASX 200 pushed higher on the back of surging mining stocks, a softer labor market, and fresh global tailwinds from a US Federal Reserve rate cut.

By early afternoon in Sydney, the ASX 200 benchmark was trading around 0.6–0.9% higher, near 8,630–8,655 points, according to live updates from ABC News, MarketIndex and RTTNews. ^[1]The broader All Ordinaries was also up close to 1%, around 8,949 points. ^[2]

ASX 200 Today: Key Numbers for 11 December 2025

Index snapshot (mid-session, Thu 11 December 2025):

S&P/ASX 200: About 8,630–8,655, up roughly 0.6–0.9% on the day. ^[3]
All Ordinaries: Around 8,949 , up 0.91% . ^[4]
Australian dollar: About US$0.666 , little changed but slightly firmer. ^[5]

Thursday’s gains follow a soft close on Wednesday, December 10, when the ASX 200 slipped 6.5 points (0.1%) to 8,579.4 , its lowest close in more than a week, as investors waited for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. ^[6]

Despite the recent wobble, the index remains up around 5% year‑to‑date , and roughly 2–3% higher than a year ago , according to data cited by Economic Times and Trading Economics. ^[7]The broader picture: the ASX 200 is still trading below its all‑time high near 9,115 set in October 2025 , but well off its recent lows. ^[8]

Mixed Jobs Data and a Hawkish RBA Tone

Thursday’s rally came on the same day as the latest Australian labor force data, which painted a nuanced picture of the economy.

Labour market snapshot

ABS figures for November showed: ^[9]

Unemployment rate: Unchanged at 4.3% , slightly better than the 4.4% expected.
Full‑time employment: Down 57,000 people.
Part‑time employment: Up 35,000 .
Employment has grown 1.3% over the past year , lagging population growth of 2.0% .

MarketIndex notes that the ASX 200 was about 0.8% higher after the employment data, suggesting investors took the report as neither a disaster nor a game-changer. ^[10]

What this means for the RBA

The real story is how the numbers feed into the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook:

ABC’s live markets blog reports that market pricing for a February 2026 rate hike has risen , with swaps now implying a greater chance of higher rates next year after the jobs data. ^[11]
Economists at CBA told ABC they do not expect this labor report alone to shift the RBA’s thinking much, but they still see risks tilted toward higher rates in 2026 . ^[12]
Indeed economist Callam Pickering described the jobs market as sitting on “a knife’s edge”, warning that persistent inflation could force the RBA to raise rates in February if price pressures don’t cool, even as employment growth looks sluggish. ^[13]

Separately, reporting in The Australian highlights that the RBA now sees inflation risks skewed to the upside and has effectively signaled that the recent rate‑cut cycle is likely over, with markets pricing in roughly two 25‑basis‑point hikes by August 2026 . ^[14]

AMP economist My Bui, quoted by MarketIndex, calls Thursday’s labor report “a little bit for everyone”, noting the RBA has turned “significantly more hawkish” on the back of upside surprises in inflation and spending data—but AMP still expects no further rate changes through 2026 . ^[15]

In short: the jobs data is soft enough to worry about growth, but not soft enough to take rate hikes off the table , and that tension is shaping the ASX’s moves.

Miners at Record Highs While Growth and Property Names Lag

The dominant theme on the ASX today is resource strength .

Resource stocks drive the rally

MarketIndex’s live wrap flags the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index as the standout: ^[16]

Up around 1.7–1.9% in early trade.
Up 7.5% so far this month , and now trading at fresh all‑time highs .
Gains are broad‑based across iron ore, gold, copper, lithium and coal names.

Key movers include:

BHP Group (ASX: BHP) – Trading near levels last seen in late 2023 and within about 2% of an all-time high , boosted by iron ore prices holding around US$100–106 a tonne . ^[17]
Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) – At or near record highs , according to MarketIndex commentary. ^[18]
Fortescue (ASX: FMG) – Up about 50% since June , and among today’s notable winners. ^[19]

RTTNews similarly notes that BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are all gaining around or above 2% , helping push the broader market higher. ^[20]

UBS analysts, cited by MarketIndex, point to supportive Chinese commodity data : slightly softer iron ore imports but tight copper supply, firmer aluminum exports, and stronger coal imports on restocking, all of which support metals prices into 2026 . ^[21]

Top gainers and laggards on the ASX 200

According to intraday scans of S&P/ASX 200 stocks: ^[22]

Intraday gainers:

Flight Center (ASX: FLT) – Up about 8.5% , after investors welcomed a new acquisition.
James Hardie (ASX: JHX) – Rallying more than 6% , in line with strength in US-listed homebuilders overnight.
Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) – Gaining around 4–6% , extending recent momentum following a buyback and dividend upgrade.
Zip (ASX: ZIP) and Sims (ASX: SGM) – Up roughly 4% .
Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU) , Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN) and Fortescue (ASX: FMG) all trading around 2–3% higher .

Intraday laggards:

Predictive Discovery (ASX: PDI) and Abacus Storage King (ASX: ASK) – Down around 3–4% .
Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX: TLX) and Regis Healthcare (ASX: REG) – Off roughly 2–2.5% .
Growth and tech-adjacent names like REA Group (ASX: REA) , Liontown (ASX: LTR) , Life360 (ASX: 360) , Seek (ASX: SEK) and Hub24 (ASX: HUB) are also under pressure, down close to 2% .

Recap: Wednesday’s losers and winners

Wednesday’s slightly lower close still featured plenty of stock‑specific action: ^[23]

The ASX 200 dipped 0.1% to 8,579.4 , with nine of 11 sectors in the red .
Tech stocks were the weakest: TechnologyOne and WiseTech Global fell around 1–2% .
Materials provided support: gold miners such as Newmont and Northern Star jumped 4–5% .
DroneShield surged about 16% , Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure gained more than 6% , and Ramelius Resources added over 5% .
St Barbara leaves nearly 11% after securing funding for a PNG gold expansion.
Reliance Worldwide and Iluka Resources were among the worst performers, each dropping more than 4–5% .

This two‑day pattern— resources in favor, growth and rate‑sensitive sectors struggling —is central to the current market narrative.

Domestic Headlines: Regulation, Banks and Corporate Risk

Beyond index moves, several domestic stories are also shaping sentiment:

Bupa fined $35 million: The Federal Court ordered health insurer Bupa to pay a $35 million penalty for misleading and unconscionable conduct in rejecting thousands of claims, with the ACCC saying some customers delayed or skipped treatment as a result. ^[24]
IAG–RAC Insurance deal blocked: The ACCC opposed IAG’s planned acquisition of RAC Insurance , warning the pair would control 55–65% of WA’s motor insurance market and 50–60% of home and contents , potentially leading to higher premiums and lower quality. ^[25]
Westpac AGM tensions: Westpac’s annual meeting attracted climate protests over fossil fuel lending, while non-executive director Peter Nash appears to have survived a shareholder push to vote him off the board over his previous role at the ASX. ^[26]

These stories feed into a broader theme of regulatory scrutiny and governance risk , which investors are increasingly factoring into their views on Australian financials and insurers.

Global Tailwinds: Fed Rate Cut Gives Risk Assets a Lift

Thursday’s ASX rally is not happening in isolation. It follows a highly anticipated decision by the US Federal Reserve .

On Wednesday (US time), the Fed: ^[27]

Cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5–3.75% , the third cut this year .
Reported it now sees policy “broadly in neutral” , suggesting a potential pause from here.
Revealed a divided committee, with multiple dissents and a median projection of only one further cut in 2026 .

Wall Street reacted positively: the Dow gained about 1.05%, the S&P 500 rose 0.67%, and the Nasdaq added roughly 0.33% , according to Reuters. ^[28]That risk‑on tone has spilled into Asia‑Pacific markets, supporting Australian equities—particularly cyclical and resource names that benefit from easier global financial conditions and robust commodity demand. ^[29]

At the same time, the Fed’s signal of a near‑term pause on further cuts, combined with the RBA’s more hawkish rhetoric, means relative interest‑rate dynamics could start to favor the Australian dollar , especially if local inflation remains sticky. That, in turn, influences offshore earnings, commodity pricing in local terms and foreign investor appetite for ASX 200 stocks.

Analyst Views: Valuations Reset and New Opportunities on the ASX

Today’s move higher comes after a sharp pullback from October’s record highs .

Morningstar’s latest Australian Equity Market Outlook for Q1 2026 , published on 11 December, notes that: ^[30]

From the late‑October peak , the ASX 200 had fallen about 5% by the end of November , taking it close to a six‑month low.
Year‑to‑date returns halved from around 10% earlier in the year to roughly 5%.
For much of 2025, Australian and New Zealand stocks traded well above Morningstar’s fair value estimates , but now sit at only a 2% premium , a level they consider “fairly valued”.
About 36% of covered stocks are rated 4‑ or 5‑stars , versus a 10‑year average of about 25%, indicating more opportunities than usual.
The most attractively priced sectors are energy, healthcare and consumer defensives , with select opportunities emerging in technology after the recent global AI‑driven tech sell‑off.

Morningstar highlights WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC) as a 5‑star‑rated stock recently added to its “Best Ideas” list, arguing that quality tech names hit by sentiment‑driven selling may now offer long‑term value. ^[31]

Other commentators, including brokers quoted by The Motley Fool, point to select ASX 200 dividend and growth stocks that could deliver 30–40% upside into 2026, though these calls are highly stock‑specific and dependent on earnings delivery . ^[32]

Taken together with the strong run in miners and the cooling of stretched bank valuations, the consensus forming across research desks is that:

The easy phase of the 2025 rally is over .
The ASX is no longer obviously expensive , but not deep‑value either.
Returns from here are likely to be more uneven , driven by stock picking, sector rotation and the trajectory of RBA policy and Chinese demand .

What Today’s ASX Moves Mean for Investors

For investors following the Australia stock market today , several themes stand out:

Resources are in the driver’s seat
Record‑high materials indices and strong moves in BHP, Rio and Fortescue show that commodity‑linked names remain the market’s leadership group , supported by resilient iron ore and copper fundamentals and constructive Chinese trade data. ^[33]
Rate‑sensitive sectors are under pressure
Even with the Fed cutting, the RBA’s hawkish tilt and talk of possible 2026 hikes are weighing on tech, high‑multiple growth, REITs and parts of financials , where future cash flows are most sensitive to discount‑rate assumptions. ^[34]
Macro signals are mixed, not catastrophic
The labor market is softening—full-time jobs are falling—but unemployment remains low by historical standards. That fits a narrative of a cooling, not collapsing, economy , making a deep local recession scenario less likely in the near term, but keeping volatility elevated. ^[35]
Valuations look more reasonable than earlier in 2025
The pullback from October’s highs and Morningstar’s fair‑value work suggests the Australian sharemarket is now closer to fair value , with pockets of opportunity in defensives, energy and select tech, rather than being uniformly cheap or expensive. ^[36]
Policy uncertainty will drive 2026 positioning
With the Fed now in “wait and see” mode and the RBA openly discussing the possibility of rate hikes resuming , central banks will remain a key driver of sector performance and currency moves—both crucial inputs when assessing Australian stocks. ^[37]

Final Word

Today’s session on 11 December 2025 shows an Australian stock market that is resilient but finely balanced :

Commodity strength and a Fed rate cut are providing strong support.
Local labor data and a more hawkish RBA are tempering enthusiasm and reshaping expectations for 2026.
Valuations have cooled , opening doors for selective opportunities rather than a simple index‑level call.

For traders and long‑term investors alike, the key will be where you look on the ASX —and how you position for a world in which inflation is not yet fully tamed, but central banks are increasingly reluctant to keep cutting.