Aviva plc (LSE: AV.) heads into December 2025 as one of the FTSE 100’s standout performers, with its share price up roughly a third over the past year and more than 40% year‑to‑date as of mid‑November. [1] Backed by a chunky dividend yield, upgraded financial targets and the integration of Direct Line, the Aviva story right now is a mix of growth, cost‑cutting and income.
This article pulls together the latest Aviva share price, Q3 2025 results, Direct Line acquisition details, dividend outlook, and fresh analyst and technical forecasts as of 1 December 2025.
Aviva share price today and valuation (1 December 2025)
At the close of trading on 1 December 2025, Aviva shares changed hands at around 642p (sell 642.2p / buy 642.4p). [2] Intraday data from the Financial Times shows the stock trading near 643p earlier in the day, about 8% below its 52‑week high of 700p set on 12 November. [3]
Key current stats:
- Latest close (1 Dec 2025): ~642p
- 52‑week range: 451.9p (Dec 2024) to 700p (12 Nov 2025) [4]
- 1‑year share price change: +33% (approximate) [5]
- Trailing P/E ratio: ~29x earnings
- Market capitalisation: about £19.9bn [6]
- Annual dividend (forecast for 2025): 36.9p per share, implying a yield around 5.6% at current prices. [7]
For a large UK insurer, that’s a combination of “expensive vs old‑school value stock” on the earnings multiple, but still “high‑yield” on the dividend.
What moved Aviva shares in November 2025
Q3 2025 trading update: strong numbers, jittery reaction
The big catalyst was Aviva’s Q3 2025 “In Focus” trading update and investor event on 13 November 2025. Management said:
- The group is on track to exceed £2bn of operating profit and £1.8bn of own‑funds generation in 2025, hitting its prior 2026 targets a year early. [8]
- New long‑term targets include:
- Operating EPS growth of 11% per year from 2025–2028
- IFRS return on equity above 20% by 2028
- Cash remittances over £7bn between 2026 and 2028 [9]
Operationally, the Q3 numbers showed:
- General insurance (GI) premiums up about 9–12% to £10.0bn for the first nine months, with the UK up 17% and Canada up 3% in constant currency.
- The undiscounted combined operating ratio (COR) in GI improved to 94.4%, from 96.8% a year earlier, helped by better weather losses and prior‑year reserve releases. [10]
- Wealth net flows hit £8.3bn (6% of opening AUM), with workplace pensions and platform business both growing. [11]
So far so good. However, the market’s reaction was… less than ecstatic.
Interactive Investor and Reuters both noted that Aviva’s share price fell about 4–6% on the day, slipping from multi‑year highs close to 700p to a three‑week low, as some investors judged the new 2028 guidance slightly underwhelming relative to very high expectations. [12]
UBS estimated that management’s new 2028 EPS ambition (about 75p) sat roughly 7% below market consensus at around 80p, which may explain part of the wobble. [13] Bank of America, by contrast, argued the guidance still leaves Aviva at the upper end of European insurance peers and maintained a buy rating with a 720p target, highlighting the company’s track record of beating targets. [14]
Since then, the share price has drifted lower from the 700p peak but remained comfortably above 630p, leaving the Q3 update as a classic “great results, stretched expectations” moment.
Direct Line acquisition: synergies, job cuts and capital returns
A major theme in both the Q3 update and analyst commentary is Aviva’s acquisition of Direct Line, completed earlier in 2025 for £3.7bn. [15] Management is weaving this deal into almost every part of the investment case:
- Cost synergies: the company now targets £225m of cost savings, nearly double the original estimate for the Direct Line combination. [16]
- Capital synergies: at least £500m of capital benefits are expected by the end of 2026. [17]
- Job cuts: to realise those savings, Aviva expects a 5–7% reduction in group roles, equating to up to about 2,300 jobs. [18]
The acquisition also accelerates Aviva’s push towards “capital‑light” earnings (business lines that consume less balance‑sheet capital). Management expects more than 75% of earnings to be capital‑light by 2028, which, in theory, leaves more room for dividends and buybacks. [19]
On capital returns, the company has:
- Paused buybacks during the integration, after previously running £300m per year of repurchases. [20]
- Confirmed an intention to restart “regular and sustainable” capital returns (buybacks) alongside the full‑year 2025 results in March 2026, with the scale increased to reflect a higher share count following the Direct Line deal. [21]
In short: near‑term cost and restructuring pain, with the promise of fatter long‑term margins and extra cash for shareholders.
Dividend and income outlook: why income investors are watching
Aviva has been leaning heavily into its income stock identity.
- In August 2025, the board declared an interim dividend of 13.1p per share for the 2025 financial year, up from 11.9p in 2024 – a roughly 10% increase. [22]
- The group’s policy remains “mid‑single‑digit growth in the cash cost of the dividend” over time, with an extra uplift in 2025 linked to the Direct Line acquisition. [23]
Data from the FT suggests that, based on total expected 2025 dividends of 36.9p per share and a share price around 642p, Aviva currently offers a dividend yield of about 5.6%. [24]
That headline yield has kept income‑hungry commentators busy:
- Articles on Yahoo Finance and The Motley Fool UK frame Aviva as a “passive income star”, exploring how much capital an investor would need to generate £1,000 per year in dividends from the shares. [25]
- Using the FT’s 36.9p per‑share annual dividend, a rough back‑of‑the‑envelope calculation suggests you’d need around 2,700 shares to generate £1,000 before tax and fees – or roughly £17,000 invested at current prices. (That’s just maths, not a recommendation.)
Crucially, Aviva has also reiterated that from 2026 onwards it still expects mid‑single‑digit growth in the cash cost of the dividend and plans to layer share buybacks on top. [26] If management sticks to that script, total cash returns (yield + buybacks) could look very chunky by the late 2020s – assuming the Direct Line integration goes to plan.
Q3 2025 performance in more detail
Beyond the headline targets, the Q3 update gives a granular picture of how the business is performing:
General Insurance
- Gross written premiums (GWP) for General Insurance in the first nine months of 2025 rose from £9.1bn to £10.0bn, up 9% at reported currency and 12% in constant currency. [27]
- UK personal lines premiums jumped 24% year‑on‑year to £3.35bn, helped by Direct Line and growth in intermediated business (including a travel partnership with Nationwide). [28]
- The undiscounted COR improved by 2.4 percentage points to 94.4%, thanks to better weather experience (especially in Canada) and reserve releases. [29]
That combination of strong top‑line growth and a better COR is what you want to see from a mass‑market motor, home and commercial insurer.
Wealth and Retirement
- Wealth net flows reached £8.3bn for the first nine months (vs £7.7bn a year earlier), with workplace pensions and platforms both contributing. [30]
- Workplace net flows grew 3%, with Aviva winning 438 new schemes year‑to‑date. [31]
- Retirement sales (annuities and equity release) totalled £5.3bn, down from £7.3bn in the prior period after a particularly strong 2024. But value of new business fell more sharply as bulk annuity pricing became more competitive. [32]
The picture here is classic Aviva 2.0: solid workplace and platform growth, decent annuity volumes but with pricing and competition acting as a governor on margins.
What analysts are saying about Aviva stock now
Broker price targets: 650p–750p range, some eyeing 800p
Analyst sentiment is generally positive but not unanimous.
According to MarketBeat’s aggregation of broker research (late November 2025): [33]
- J.P. Morgan cut its price target from 735p to 725p but kept an “overweight” rating, implying roughly 13% upside from recent levels.
- UBS maintains a buy rating with a 750p target.
- Citigroup is more cautious with a neutral stance and a 671p target.
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods sits at the bearish end with an underperform rating and a 650p target.
- Overall, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy” with an average target price of around 699p.
Interactive Investor reports that Bank of America sees “upside risk” to Aviva’s new long‑term earnings targets and believes the company could beat them, supporting its buy rating and 720p target. [34]
On the more bullish edge of the spectrum, Yahoo Finance and The Motley Fool highlight that at least one analyst expects Aviva’s share price to push through 800p by November 2026, implying mid‑teens percentage upside over the next year on top of the dividend. [35]
Retail commentary: “high‑yield compounder” narrative
Recently published pieces focus on:
- Aviva as a compounding income stock – for example, a Yahoo Finance feature asking how a hypothetical £20,000 investment in Aviva could grow over time assuming reinvested dividends. [36]
- The 1 December 2025 Motley Fool article directly addressing how many shares are needed for £1,000 in yearly passive income, underlining the stock’s current popularity with UK retail income investors. [37]
These articles are opinion‑driven rather than neutral research, but they illustrate the story ordinary investors are currently telling themselves about Aviva: a boring‑but‑beautiful dividend machine, with some potential for capital growth if the Direct Line synergies and new targets are delivered.
Short‑term technical outlook: sideways with mixed signals
For those who like their stocks with a side of technical analysis, StockInvest.us currently categorises Aviva as a “sell candidate” in the very short term, despite a generally constructive medium‑term trend. [38]
Their latest update (based on the 28 November close at 651.8p) notes:
- The stock is moving in a horizontal trading range, and there is a 90% probability of trading between roughly 623p and 683p over the next three months if the range holds.
- A short‑term moving average still gives a buy signal, but the long‑term moving average sits higher and flashes a sell, creating mixed signals.
- A double‑top pattern triggered a bearish signal around 12 November, with a theoretical downside target near 629p by late December, though technical patterns are probabilistic, not guarantees.
In plain language: technicians see Aviva bumping around in a wide sideways band, with risk of near‑term pullbacks but scope for a push back toward the top of the range if momentum returns.
Key risks investors are watching
Even with healthy momentum and generous cash returns, Aviva isn’t a risk‑free story. The main watch‑points in current coverage are:
- Integration risk: Direct Line is a large, complex acquisition. If cost savings disappoint or integration disrupts service, the expected uplift to earnings and capital could fall short. [39]
- Execution on new targets: The bar is now higher. An 11% EPS CAGR and >20% ROE by 2028 are demanding outcomes in a cyclical industry, especially if competition intensifies in bulk annuities and motor insurance. [40]
- Regulatory and political risk: As Reuters reported, Aviva is already fielding more calls from customers anxious about pension tax changes around the UK Budget. Changes to pension rules, solvency requirements or price controls could affect profitability and capital. [41]
- Macro environment: Slower UK growth, shifting interest‑rate expectations and claims inflation (particularly in motor and property) can all move the needle on earnings and valuations.
Bottom line: where Aviva plc stands on 1 December 2025
As of 1 December 2025, Aviva sits in an interesting spot:
- The share price has cooled from its 700p peak to around 642p, yet remains up strongly over 12 months. [42]
- The dividend yield around 5.5–6%, combined with guidance for further growth and the prospect of renewed share buybacks in 2026, gives the stock clear income appeal. [43]
- The Direct Line acquisition raises both the upside (bigger cost and capital synergies, more capital‑light earnings) and the execution risk (large integration, job cuts, political scrutiny). [44]
- Analysts are mostly constructive, with a cluster of price targets between 650p and 750p and at least one outlier eyeing 800p. [45]
Whether Aviva deserves its new, higher valuation multiple depends on how much you trust management to hit those upgraded long‑term targets – and how comfortable you are owning a big, regulated, cyclical insurer in a jumpy macro environment. For now, the market seems to be saying: “Prove it… but we like the dividends while we wait.”
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. www.hl.co.uk, 3. markets.ft.com, 4. markets.ft.com, 5. markets.ft.com, 6. markets.ft.com, 7. markets.ft.com, 8. www.aviva.com, 9. www.aviva.com, 10. static.aviva.io, 11. static.aviva.io, 12. www.ii.co.uk, 13. www.ii.co.uk, 14. www.ii.co.uk, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.ii.co.uk, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.aviva.com, 20. www.ii.co.uk, 21. static.aviva.io, 22. www.aviva.com, 23. static.aviva.io, 24. markets.ft.com, 25. www.fool.co.uk, 26. static.aviva.io, 27. static.aviva.io, 28. static.aviva.io, 29. static.aviva.io, 30. static.aviva.io, 31. static.aviva.io, 32. static.aviva.io, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.ii.co.uk, 35. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 36. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 37. www.fool.co.uk, 38. stockinvest.us, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.aviva.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. markets.ft.com, 43. markets.ft.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.marketbeat.com
