Live price snapshot
Aviva (LSE: AV.) traded at 664.60p at 09:53 GMT, down 28.00p (-4.04%) versus Wednesday’s close. Intraday, the stock has moved between 656.08p and 675.99p; its 52‑week range stands at 451.90p–698.40p. Figures are delayed and time‑stamped. [1]
What’s moving the shares
The drop follows Aviva’s third‑quarter trading update and “In Focus” presentation, which raised medium‑term ambitions and nearly doubled expected cost savings from the Direct Line acquisition. Management now targets operating EPS growth of 11% (2025–2028 CAGR), IFRS ROE above 20% by 2028, and >£7bn cash remittances over 2026–2028. Cost synergies from Direct Line are lifted to £225m (run‑rate in 2028), with >£0.5bn of capital synergies expected by end‑2026 (subject to approvals). Aviva also guided to ~£2.2bn group operating profit for 2025, including ~£0.15bn from Direct Line. Shares fell despite the upgrade, after a strong year‑to‑date rally that set a high bar for today’s news. [2]
Key numbers from today’s update (13 Nov)
- New Group targets: 11% operating EPS CAGR (2025–2028); >20% IFRS ROE by 2028; >£7bn cash remittances (2026–2028). [3]
- Direct Line synergies:£225m cost savings (run‑rate in 2028), plus >£0.5bn capital synergies by end‑2026; ~£350m total costs to achieve. [4]
- 2025 profit guide:~£2.2bn operating profit, including ~£0.15bn from Direct Line. [5]
- Q3 trading highlights: General‑insurance premiums +12% to £10.0bn (9M); wealth net inflows £8.3bn with assets of £224bn; Solvency II shareholder coverage 177% (end‑Oct). [6]
- Capital returns: Aviva signalled a restart of regular share buybacks with FY2025 results next March, alongside its dividend policy. [7]
Why the market reaction looks muted despite stronger guidance
After rallying roughly 48% year‑to‑date into this morning, Aviva needed a genuinely surprising step‑up to extend gains; early trading suggests investors are banking profits and digesting execution risks and cost‑to‑achieve (~£350m) on the Direct Line integration. The company’s stronger targets and faster synergy timetable are clear positives, but today’s move hints that a portion was already priced in. [8]
What to watch next
- Integration milestones: Aviva expects about £40m of synergy savings to be in place by year‑end 2025, with the full £225m cost benefit by 2028; capital synergies >£0.5bn depend on regulatory approvals expected around end‑2026. Execution against these markers is the near‑term yardstick. [9]
- Capital returns timing: Management plans to reintroduce buybacks alongside FY2025 results in March 2026—a potential catalyst if markets remain favourable. [10]
- Diary date: FY2025 results are scheduled for 5 March 2026 (provisional). [11]
Aviva share price: today’s quick facts (as of mid‑morning, London time)
- Price: 664.60p; Change: −4.04% vs. prior close. [12]
- Day range: 656.08p–675.99p; 52‑week range: 451.90p–698.40p. [13]
- Context: Stock down on the day after guidance upgrades and synergy uplift tied to the Direct Line deal; management also signalled the return of larger buybacks next year. [14]
All market prices are delayed/timed as cited above and can change during the session. This article is for information only and not investment advice.
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. static.aviva.io, 3. static.aviva.io, 4. static.aviva.io, 5. static.aviva.io, 6. static.aviva.io, 7. static.aviva.io, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. static.aviva.io, 10. static.aviva.io, 11. www.aviva.com, 12. markets.ft.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.reuters.com
