London, Jan 15, 2026, 07:13 GMT — Premarket update.
- Shares of BAE Systems slipped 1.6% to 2,038 pence by Wednesday’s close.
- Deutsche Bank downgraded BAE to “hold” and lowered its price target to 2,140p.
- BAE announced it secured a $184 million contract from the U.S. Marine Corps for an additional 30 Amphibious Combat Vehicles.
BAE Systems (BAES.L) shares are under the spotlight ahead of Thursday’s London open after a broker downgrade hit a stock that has already surged this year. On Wednesday, the shares slipped 1.64%, closing at 2,038 pence. 1
Timing is crucial here. Defence stocks have become a crowded trade across Europe, and any pullback can quickly snowball as fund managers question what’s already baked into prices.
That trend remains intact. Europe’s aerospace and defence index has gained roughly 55% over the last year. Meanwhile, defence budgets among EU countries rose to 343 billion euros in 2024 and are expected to reach 381 billion euros in 2025, according to a Reuters review of official figures. 2
This week, Deutsche Bank downgraded BAE from “buy” to “hold,” lowering its price target to 2,140 pence from 2,220 pence. Analyst Christophe Menard flagged concerns over Maritime margins, which came in at 6.5%, well below the 8% guidance, making it unlikely BAE will beat FY25 results expectations. He noted better showings in Air and Cyber & Intelligence, but that wasn’t enough to offset the weakness. 3
The bank also highlighted cash generation, defining “free cash flow” as the cash remaining after operating expenses and investments. Menard projected roughly 1.5 billion pounds in free cash flow, falling short of certain market forecasts, and estimated 7%-8% organic growth in 2026, excluding currency fluctuations and acquisitions.
BAE dropped fresh contract news. The company announced a $184 million order from the U.S. Marine Corps for 30 more Amphibious Combat Vehicles, part of an already awarded full-rate production batch. This bumps ACV-30 orders past the 100-vehicle mark. “The ACV has shown time and time again how adaptable it is, capable of handling everything from open ocean to tough inland missions,” said Rebecca McGrane, vice president of Amphibious programs at BAE Systems. 4
BAE revealed another round of buybacks, purchasing 99,750 shares on Jan. 14. The volume-weighted average price came in at 2,042.46 pence. The company said it intends to cancel these shares. 5
Deutsche Bank joined the selloff by downgrading Leonardo and Thales alongside BAE, Reuters reported. Defence stocks dropped 1.6% on Wednesday, ending their streak of eight consecutive gains. 6
The downside scenario is straightforward: shipbuilding margins remain weak, contract awards slow, and budget “affordability” turns from talk into a real issue in the UK and U.S. Even with solid orders coming in, a single stumble in guidance could weigh on a stock trading close to its recent highs.
Traders will be eyeing whether the buzz around BAE’s contract wins and ongoing buyback chatter can steady the shares at the open and keep them supported through the week. The next major event is the company’s full-year results due on Feb. 18. 7
