Bank of Montreal (BMO) Stock on December 3, 2025: Walmart Deal, Q4 Earnings Preview and 2026 Outlook

Bank of Montreal stock is heading into a pivotal week, with a fresh Walmart Canada partnership, new payment APIs, and a closely watched Q4 2025 earnings report all hitting the tape at once. Here’s what investors need to know today.

Where Bank of Montreal stock stands on December 3, 2025

On the New York Stock Exchange, Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO) last closed around US$126 per share, with a market capitalization close to US$90 billion. Trailing twelve‑month earnings per share (EPS) sit just above US$8, implying a price‑to‑earnings ratio around 15x and a forward P/E near 13–14x, according to StockAnalysis and other data providers. ^[1]

The stock’s 52‑week range on the U.S. listing runs from roughly US$85 to US$131, underscoring how far it has come since the 2024–early‑2025 banking jitters. ^[2]

On the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: BMO), shares recently opened around C$174, with a 52‑week range of about C$121 to C$183 and a similar mid‑teens P/E multiple on Canadian‑dollar earnings. ^[3]

Total‑return data show just how strong the recovery has been. Over the past year, BMO’s total return sits in the low‑to‑mid‑30% range, and year‑to‑date performance in 2025 is also up by roughly one‑third, including dividends. ^[4]

BMO remains very much an income stock: the bank pays an annualized dividend of about US$4.60–4.61 per share, translating into a dividend yield around 3.6–3.7% at current prices. ^[5]

New deals and product launches driving fresh headlines

1. BMO and Walmart Canada team up

The biggest headline on December 3, 2025 is a new strategic collaboration with Walmart Canada. BMO and Walmart announced a program that gives new BMO clients up to 12 months of Walmart Canada’s “Delivery Pass” subscription for free, aimed at making shopping “fast, convenient and affordable” for households using BMO for their everyday banking. ^[6]

For BMO, this partnership is about:

New customer acquisition – especially younger and value‑conscious shoppers who may not yet have a primary banking relationship.
Digital engagement – pairing a big‑box retailer’s app and loyalty ecosystem with BMO’s cards, chequing and savings products.
Cross‑selling potential – once shoppers open BMO accounts to unlock perks, they become candidates for credit cards, personal loans, mortgages and wealth products.

Retail co‑branding isn’t new for banks, but teaming up so visibly with a national retailer ahead of holiday shopping season underscores how aggressively BMO is competing for front‑of‑wallet status.

2. Payment APIs and embedded finance push

On December 2, BMO also announced the launch of Payment APIs that allow businesses across North America to embed real‑time payment capabilities directly into their ERP systems, treasury platforms and customer‑facing apps. Developers can access documentation and a sandbox through the BMO Developer Portal. ^[7]

In practical terms, this moves BMO deeper into “banking‑as‑a‑service” and embedded finance, where:

Corporates and fintechs can plug BMO rail into their own software.
Cross‑border and instant payments become more seamless.
Treasury relationships become stickier as clients rely on BMO’s infrastructure, not just loans.

For shareholders, this is more about fee income and competitive positioning than immediate EPS, but it aligns with management’s “Ambition 2025” strategy emphasizing technology, AI and digital client experiences. TS2 Tech+1

3. Brand‑building: charitable giving and small‑business campaigns

BMO has also been busy on the brand and ESG front:

A Giving Tuesday survey released on December 2 shows about 65% of Canadians plan to donate to their communities this holiday season, despite cost‑of‑living pressures. ^[8]
The “Wrap the Good” campaign, relaunched November 28, promotes small businesses across North America via an online gift guide and in‑branch holiday wrapping paper. ^[9]

These initiatives don’t move the earnings needle by themselves, but they support BMO’s positioning as a community‑oriented, customer‑friendly bank, an important intangible when investors weigh reputational risk and long‑term franchise value.

4. New CDRs broaden BMO’s capital‑markets footprint

In the weeks leading up to December, BMO has aggressively expanded its line‑up of Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs)—securities that let Canadian investors buy fractional exposure to U.S. stocks in Canadian dollars:

On October 16, BMO launched CDRs on companies including Nvidia, Tesla and Amazon. ^[10]
On November 20 and 26, it rolled out additional CDRs covering names such as Apple, Intel, Mastercard, Pfizer, Microsoft, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Chevron, Costco, Super Micro Computer and Walmart. ^[11]

This bolsters fee‑based revenue and reinforces BMO’s role as a key capital‑markets and product‑innovation player in Canada.

Q4 2025 earnings preview: all eyes on December 4

BMO will report fiscal Q4 2025 results before the market opens on Thursday, December 4, followed by an earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET. ^[12]

Consensus expectations for the quarter, based on MarketBeat and other aggregators, are roughly:

EPS around US$2.1 per share – MarketBeat lists a US$2.09 consensus, while Public.com shows an estimate of about US$2.15, reflecting slight differences in the analyst set. ^[13]
Revenue near US$6.5 billion for the quarter. ^[14]

A Reuters sector piece published December 1 notes that Canadian banks in general are expected to post solid Q4 earnings, helped by investment‑banking and wealth‑management revenues, even as markets scrutinize lofty valuations and the outlook for credit quality. ^[15]

Within that coverage, BMO stands out because analysts expect it to reduce loan‑loss provisions by roughly 40–50% in Q4, based on LSEG data compiled across the Big Six Canadian banks. TS2 Tech+1

For investors, the Q4 print will be critical on three fronts:

Credit costs – If provisions for credit losses (PCL) fall as expected without new signs of stress in U.S. or Canadian loan books, that supports the current valuation.
U.S. operations – BMO has one of the largest U.S. footprints among Canadian banks; commentary on U.S. commercial credit, regional banking exposure and private‑credit linkages will matter. TS2 Tech+1
Guidance into fiscal 2026–27 – Street valuations assume continued mid‑single‑digit earnings growth; any wobble in 2026 and 2027 EPS expectations could compress multiples. ^[16]

Under the hood: earnings momentum, dividends and capital

Q3 2025: strong profit growth and higher dividend

BMO’s Q3 2025 results (for the quarter ended July 31) set the tone for the current rally:

Reported net income rose about 25% year‑over‑year to C$2.33 billion, with reported EPS at C$3.14. ^[17]
Adjusted net income reached roughly C$2.40 billion, and adjusted EPS C$3.23, also up solidly from the prior year. ^[18]
Provision for credit losses for the quarter was just under C$800 million, down from around C$900 million a year earlier, reflecting stabilizing credit quality. ^[19]

On the U.S. side, a detailed breakdown from independent research platform TIKR highlights that adjusted net income in U.S. Personal & Commercial banking jumped around 40%+ year‑on‑year, supported by better margins, improved efficiency and easing credit costs. ^[20]

BMO also reaffirmed its status as a dividend stalwart:

The quarterly common‑share dividend was set at C$1.63, up from C$1.55–1.59 a year earlier—roughly 5% year‑over‑year dividend growth. ^[21]
At current TSX prices, this equates to a yield in the high‑3% range for Canadian investors. TS2 Tech+1

Crucially, BMO announced a new normal course issuer bid (NCIB) authorizing buybacks of up to 30 million common shares, replacing a prior program that allowed repurchases of up to 20 million shares. ^[22]

Add that to its long history of shareholder payouts: BMO is frequently cited as Canada’s longest‑running uninterrupted dividend payer, with distributions going back to the 1820s. ^[23]

Capital strength and regulatory buffers

BMO’s Q3 disclosures and regulatory filings show a comfortably capitalized balance sheet:

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio in the mid‑13% range.
Tier 1 capital and total capital ratios in the mid‑teens to high‑teens.
A total loss‑absorbing capacity (TLAC) ratio near 30%, according to data cited in BMO’s U.S. resolution plan. TS2 Tech+1

Those levels place BMO well above domestic systemically important bank (D‑SIB) regulatory minimums in Canada, giving management room to keep funding growth, paying dividends and executing buybacks while absorbing potential credit shocks.

(Capital levels and regulatory metrics are approximate and should always be checked against the latest official filings.)

Strategy check: U.S. expansion, Burgundy acquisition and possible asset sales

Branch optimization: fewer Great Plains branches, more California density

On October 16, 2025, BMO unveiled a major overhaul of its U.S. retail footprint:

It will sell 138 branches in 11 states to First‑Citizens Bank & Trust, transferring about US$5.7 billion in deposits and US$1.1 billion in loans. ^[24]
Over the next five years, BMO plans to open 150 new branches, heavily concentrated in California and other growth markets where it sees better long‑term returns. ^[25]

Management frames this as capital redeployment: trimming sub‑scale branches in slower‑growth geographies and reinvesting in denser, higher‑potential markets, particularly after the earlier Bank of the West acquisition expanded BMO’s U.S. presence. ^[26]

Burgundy Asset Management: wealth and ultra‑high‑net‑worth push

On November 3, BMO completed its acquisition of Burgundy Asset Management, a respected Canadian wealth manager with about C$27 billion in assets under management. The purchase price is around C$625 million, mostly in BMO shares. ^[27]

The deal:

Deepens BMO’s capabilities in high‑net‑worth and ultra‑high‑net‑worth wealth management.
Enhances fee‑based revenue, which tends to be less volatile than pure lending income.
Fits with management’s strategy of balancing traditional banking with capital‑light businesses.

Potential sale of transportation finance arm

A Reuters report in August indicated that BMO is exploring the sale of its transportation finance division—a unit managing roughly US$11 billion in assets, focused on loans and leases for trucks, trailers and related inventory. No deal has been announced, and the bank may ultimately keep the business. ^[28]

If sold, this could free up capital and further tilt BMO’s mix toward businesses with higher returns or more strategic relevance.

How analysts and models see BMO stock now

Sell‑side analysts: “Hold” with modest to strong upside, depending on listing

Across major data platforms:

For the NYSE listing, BMO carries a consensus rating of “Hold”, with an average 12‑month price target of about US$163, implying roughly 30% upside from current U.S. prices. ^[29]
For the TSX listing, platforms such as TipRanks and MarketBeat show average targets clustered around C$175–C$190 per share, implying anywhere from flat to high‑single‑digit upside after this year’s rally. TS2 Tech+2TipRanks+2

However, the tone has cooled in the last 48 hours:

On December 3, MarketBeat reported that National Bank of Canada downgraded BMO from “strong buy” to “hold”, noting limited upside after the recent run. The story also highlights a consensus US$163 target and a U.S. 12‑month price range of about US$85–US$131 over the past year. ^[30]
A new Seeking Alpha article (“Bank Of Montreal: Downgrading And Exiting Banks”) likewise argues that the stock has become significantly overvalued, prompting a rating cut to Hold and a reduced appetite for bank exposure overall. ^[31]

At the same time, earlier pieces this year—including “Bank of Montreal: Apparently, It’s Reasonably Priced While Trading Above Support Levels” and “Bank of Montreal: Canada’s Longest‑Running Uninterrupted Dividend Payer”—were more constructive, emphasizing strong fundamentals and long‑term dividend appeal. ^[32]

Fundamental research: steadier returns into 2026

Independent equity research from TIKR (November 2025) characterizes BMO as aiming for “steadier returns and lower risk heading into 2026”, pointing to: ^[33]

Double‑digit EPS growth driven by U.S. operations.
Stabilizing credit costs and solid capital ratios.
The combination of share buybacks and dividend growth as a key driver of total shareholder return over the next couple of years.

Meanwhile, valuation‑focused pieces from Simply Wall St note that after a 25%+ year‑to‑date rally on the TSX, BMO now trades close to many fair‑value estimates, with less of the deep discount seen in 2023–2024. Their models generally group BMO among fairly valued quality banks, rather than a deep value play. ^[34]

Quant and technical models: mild near‑term gains, mixed long‑term view

Algorithmic and technical‑based forecasts are more cautious—and very heterogeneous:

CoinCodex projects BMO’s U.S. shares to rise roughly 1–2% by late December and about 5% by late May 2026, but its 12‑month model actually expects a mid‑single‑digit price decline over the next year. ^[35]
StockScan.io’s long‑term forecast is even more conservative, with an average price in the 2025–2030 period below today’s levels and only modest gains projected by 2040—an artifact of a model driven entirely by historical price patterns, not bank fundamentals. ^[36]

These tools can be useful for gauging sentiment and volatility, but they are not substitutes for fundamental analysis, especially for a capital‑intensive, regulated bank.

Key risks investors should watch

Even with strong recent performance, BMO is not risk‑free. Key watchpoints include:

Valuation risk
Canadian banks as a group are trading above their long‑term average forward P/E multiples. Reuters highlights that sector valuations now embed optimistic assumptions for 2026–2027 earnings; any disappointment on growth or credit could compress multiples quickly. ^[37]
Credit and macro risk
BMO has big exposures to Canadian residential mortgages, commercial real estate and U.S. corporate lending. A sharper‑than‑expected downturn, or stress in private‑credit and non‑bank financials, could force higher provisions and pressure earnings. TS2 Tech+2BMO Newsroom+2
Execution risk in strategy shifts
Selling 138 U.S. branches, opening 150 new ones, integrating Burgundy Asset Management, and scaling new products like CDRs and payment APIs all require balanced execution. Integration missteps or weaker‑than‑expected returns from new branches and acquisitions would weigh on profitability. ^[38]
Regulatory and capital requirements
As a D‑SIB in Canada with a growing U.S. footprint, BMO faces complex capital and resolution rules in multiple jurisdictions. A change in regulatory capital requirements could constrain buybacks or dividends. ^[39]

Bottom line: Is BMO stock attractive at current levels?

As of December 3, 2025, Bank of Montreal stock is no longer the obvious bargain it was a year ago, but it remains:

A core Canadian bank franchise with diversified earnings across Canada, the U.S., wealth management and capital markets.
A reliable dividend payer with nearly two centuries of uninterrupted distributions.
A bank leaning into growth initiatives—U.S. branch densification, wealth‑management expansion via Burgundy, product innovation with CDRs, and a deeper push into embedded finance.

At the same time:

Valuations have re‑rated sharply higher after a 30–40% total return run, leading multiple analysts (including National Bank of Canada and Seeking Alpha contributors) to downgrade from “buy” to “hold” in recent days. ^[40]
Near‑term upside now appears tightly linked to flawless Q4 execution—particularly on credit costs and 2026 guidance.

For long‑term, income‑oriented investors, BMO still looks like a solid, blue‑chip bank whose combination of dividend yield, buybacks and stable earnings can compound capital over time—provided you’re comfortable with the usual bank‑sector risks and are not counting on another year of 30%+ gains.

For shorter‑term traders, the risk/reward into Thursday’s Q4 report is more finely balanced. With expectations high and valuations no longer depressed, any negative surprise on provisions, U.S. loan quality or guidance could produce outsized volatility in the share price.

Important: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.