Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) Stock Near 52‑Week High: Davivienda Deal, Q4 2025 Earnings Preview and 2026 Forecast

As of December 2, 2025, Bank of Nova Scotia stock (Scotiabank, TSX: BNS, NYSE: BNS) is trading close to its 52‑week high, just hours before it reports fourth‑quarter 2025 earnings. At the same time, the bank has closed a major Latin American transaction with Davivienda, and analysts are warning that Canada’s big banks are priced for perfection.

This article pulls together all the key news, forecasts, and analyses published since December 1, 2025, and explains what they mean for BNS stock over the next year.

Key takeaways on Bank of Nova Scotia stock today

Price & performance
- On the Toronto Stock Exchange, BNS is trading just under C$97, close to its 52‑week high of about C$97.12, after a strong run from a 52‑week low around C$62.57. ^[1]
- On the NYSE, BNS last traded around US$68.57 on December 1, 2025.
- Over the past 12 months, Benzinga estimates the U.S. listing is up roughly 26–27%. ^[2]
Dividend & valuation
- Scotiabank pays a quarterly dividend of C$1.10 per share (C$4.40 annualized), implying a yield of roughly 4.5% at current TSX prices, with a payout ratio around 82% of earnings. ^[3]
- Valuation is rich relative to history: recent analyses put trailing P/E around 18–18.5x and P/B near 1.5x, close to multi‑year highs. ^[4]
Big‑picture context
- Canada’s Big Six banks (including Scotiabank) are up about 32% year‑to‑date, outpacing the TSX’s roughly 27% gain, and trade around 12.9x forward earnings, about a 23% premium to their 10‑year average — leaving “little room for disappointment” this earnings season. ^[5]
Q4 2025 earnings preview
- Scotiabank reports Q4 results on Tuesday, December 2, 2025. ^[6]
- Consensus expectation ahead of the release is EPS of about US$1.33 for the quarter. ^[7]
- The bank expects C$74 million in reported Q4 net income, and C$82 million on an adjusted basis, from its stake in U.S. lender KeyCorp, booked with a one‑month lag. ^[8]
New strategic deal (December 1, 2025)
- Scotiabank has closed the transfer of its banking operations in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Panama to Davivienda, in exchange for roughly a 20% ownership stake in the new Davivienda Group. ^[9]
- The bank expects to record a C$300 million after‑tax accounting loss in Q1 2026, mainly from foreign currency translation, but also anticipates a 10‑basis‑point boost to its CET1 capital ratio from lower risk‑weighted assets. ^[10]
Analyst stance & targets
- Across 12 analysts covering the TSX listing, consensus is “Hold” (8 hold, 4 buy). ^[11]
- The average 12‑month price target is around C$90.67, implying mid‑single‑digit downside from current levels, although some recent targets run as high as C$108. ^[12]
AI & technical models
- AI‑driven analysis from Meyka and Intellectia shows strong upward momentum but overbought technicals, with short‑term forecasts calling for only modest further gains and wide, uncertain ranges for 2026. ^[13]

BNS stock price and valuation snapshot

On the TSX, the Bank of Nova Scotia share price is sitting in the upper end of its 52‑week range:

Recent price: ~C$96.9–C$97.0
52‑week range: C$62.57 – C$97.12
50‑day average: about C$91.5
200‑day average: about C$78.2 ^[14]

Meyka’s November 28 analysis notes that BNS is trading solidly above both its 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, reflecting a sustained uptrend throughout 2025. The article pegs market cap around C$120–121 billion, with EPS of C$5.23 and a P/E ratio close to 18.5x. ^[15]

On the NYSE, the ADR last traded near US$68.57 on December 1, after opening at US$69.29 and hitting an intraday high of US$69.50. Benzinga notes that as of November 28, BNS shares in New York were up roughly 26.5% over the past year, underscoring how far the stock has already run ahead of Q4 earnings. ^[16]

Across valuation frameworks, BNS now screens as fully valued vs its own history, and broadly in line with other Canadian banks:

GuruFocus calculates a P/E around 17–18x, a P/S near 3.1x and P/B near 1.5x, all close to multi‑year highs. ^[17]
Reuters and Finimize put the Big Six banks’ forward P/E at about 12.9x, roughly 23% above their 10‑year average, with sector share prices up about 32% year‑to‑date versus ~27% for the TSX Composite. ^[18]

In other words: BNS is no longer the bargain bank stock it was in 2023–24. The market is already pricing in a decent amount of good news.

Fresh news since December 1, 2025

1. Davivienda deal closes: Scotiabank reshapes its Latin American footprint

On December 1, 2025, Scotiabank and Davivienda announced the closing of their previously announced transaction covering Scotiabank’s retail and commercial banking operations in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Panama. ^[19]

Key details:

Scotiabank has transferred those operations to Davivienda in exchange for an approximately 20% equity stake in a new holding company, Davivienda Group. ^[20]
Former Scotiabank operations will operate under a “DAVIbank” transitional brand in Colombia and Costa Rica, with Davivienda branding in Panama. ^[21]
Management highlighted the deal as “key” to its International Banking strategy, stating that the bank is now at scale in all markets where it remains active in the region and expects improved profitability from a more focused footprint. ^[22]

Financial impact:

Scotiabank expects to book a C$300 million after‑tax loss in Q1 2026, mainly from the release of foreign currency translation reserves relating to the divested operations, net of hedges. ^[23]
At the same time, the bank expects its CET1 capital ratio to improve by roughly 10 basis points in Q1 2026 thanks to a reduction in risk‑weighted assets net of the Davivienda investment. ^[24]

What it means for investors

Short‑term, the accounting loss will be a headwind for Q1 2026 earnings, but it’s non‑cash and largely FX‑related. The capital benefit and move from operating ownership to an equity stake in a scaled regional player could:

Reduce volatility and capital intensity of Scotiabank’s Latin American business.
Maintain upside through a sizable strategic stake in a growing regional lender.
Narrow Scotiabank’s set of markets, potentially improving management focus and efficiency.

For valuation, investors will likely look through the near‑term EPS hit and focus on capital strength and profitability trends in the remaining international franchise.

2. Canadian banks head into Q4 at premium valuations

A December 1 Reuters piece (echoed by Finimize) sets the backdrop for all Canadian bank stocks this week. ^[25]

Key sector‑level points:

The Big Six banks — RBC, TD, BMO, CIBC, Scotiabank, and National Bank — wrapped their fiscal Q4 on October 31 and are about to report.
Their shares are up ~32% year‑to‑date, versus ~27% for the TSX Composite, and now trade around 12.9× forward earnings, roughly a 23% premium to their own 10‑year average. ^[26]
Analysts expect Q4 net income growth in a wide 3.5%–41.9% range across the group, mainly driven by capital markets and wealth management as credit costs stabilize. ^[27]
Loan loss provisions are forecast to rise 5–32% at five of the six banks, with BMO alone expected to see a 46% drop, reflecting very different credit stories. ^[28]

On exposure:

RBC analysts highlight that BMO has the largest U.S. footprint, while Scotiabank has the smallest, leaving BNS more levered to Canada and Latin America than to the U.S. cycle. ^[29]

On risks:

Finimize notes that rich valuations leave only a “thin margin for error”. Even a modest earnings beat might not move share prices much, while a miss or negative credit surprise could trigger a sharp de‑rating. ^[30]
Analysts are also focused on private credit and non‑bank lenders, pointing to rapid growth but limited transparency, alongside looming mortgage resets at higher rates in Canada that could stress households. ^[31]

For BNS specifically, this means Q4 results need to be clean on credit quality and guidance to justify its rerating toward the top of its range.

3. Q4 2025 earnings preview: EPS, KeyCorp boost and catalysts

Scotiabank confirmed in early November that it will release Q4 2025 results and host its earnings call on December 2, 2025. ^[32]

Benzinga’s December 1 earnings preview highlights several points: ^[33]

Consensus EPS for the quarter is US$1.33.
In the prior quarter, EPS beat estimates by about US$0.09, and the stock rose modestly the next day.
As of November 28, the New York‑listed shares were trading near US$69.29, up about 26.5% over 12 months.

One important piece of incremental information comes from Scotiabank’s October 17 press release and a GuruFocus summary:

The bank expects its ownership interest in KeyCorp to contribute around C$74 million in Q4 2025 net income, reflecting its share of KeyCorp’s Q3 earnings, net of funding costs. ^[34]
On an adjusted basis (excluding about C$8 million of acquired intangible amortization), the contribution is projected around C$82 million. ^[35]

Given that Scotiabank completed an additional ~10% investment in KeyCorp in late 2024, this is the first full‑period where the enlarged stake makes a notable impact, and it is one of the key upside drivers for Q4 earnings.

Other Q4 watchpoints

Analysts and investors will be focused on:

Loan loss provisions: whether Scotiabank continues to see stable or improving credit trends, especially in Canadian mortgages and Latin American consumer portfolios.
Net interest margins: how falling central‑bank rate expectations and prior prime‑rate cuts are feeding through to margins. ^[36]
Cost control & efficiency: earlier in 2025 Scotiabank embarked on efficiency initiatives, including job cuts, to sharpen profitability; investors will want to see operating leverage hold up.
Updated guidance for 2026, especially around international banking, capital deployment, and the impact of the Davivienda and KeyCorp positions.

Analyst ratings, dividend and price targets for BNS

MarketBeat’s forecast page for the TSX‑listed BNS pulls together the current sell‑side consensus: ^[37]

Consensus rating:Hold (12 analysts; 8 hold, 4 buy, no sells).
Average 12‑month price target:C$90.67, implying about 5.6% downside from the recent C$96.03 quote.
Target range:C$78.00 – C$108.00. The high end (e.g., Raymond James’ C$108 target with an “Outperform” rating) assumes continued earnings growth and robust capital markets, while the low end (e.g., National Bank’s C$81 Sector Perform target) reflects cautious views on credit and valuation. ^[38]

Despite the overall Hold stance, November saw a flurry of upward price‑target revisions:

Jefferies lifted its target from C$86 to C$96.
Barclays nudged its target from C$86 to C$95.
CIBC raised its target from C$93 to C$100.
TD Securities boosted its target from C$93 to C$99. ^[39]

This pattern suggests that while analysts see limited upside from here, they acknowledge:

The stock has re‑rated thanks to stronger earnings and capital returns.
The bank’s strategic moves (KeyCorp, Davivienda, share buybacks) support a more constructive medium‑term view.

Dividend profile

Scotiabank remains a classic income stock:

Quarterly dividend:C$1.10 per share.
Annualized dividend:C$4.40 per share.
Dividend yield: roughly 4.5% at a ~C$96 share price. ^[40]
Payout ratio: around 81–82% of earnings, meaning most earnings are returned to shareholders as dividends. ^[41]

Combined with an approved program to repurchase up to 20 million common shares (announced and cleared with regulators in May 2025), the bank is returning a significant amount of capital to shareholders. ^[42]

The trade‑off: a high payout and buybacks support the stock but reduce flexibility if credit costs rise or regulators tighten capital requirements.

AI, technical and seasonal forecasts for BNS stock

Beyond traditional analysts, several AI‑driven and technical platforms have updated views on BNS in late November.

Meyka: near highs, overbought but still upward trend

Meyka’s November 28 article, “Will The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO) Reach New Heights Near C$97.12?”, emphasizes: ^[43]

BNS.TO was trading around C$96.88, essentially on top of its C$97.12 year high.
The stock is well above its 50‑day (C$91.52) and 200‑day (C$78.18) moving averages, signaling a strong, established uptrend.
The RSI around 72–73 indicates overbought conditions, while MACD and ADX readings remain bullish, pointing to a strong and persistent trend.
Meyka cites analyst targets being revised up from roughly C$88.29 to C$92.21, and its AI forecasts suggest:
- Next‑quarter average price around C$100.97.
- Three‑year price potentially around C$109.57, assuming favorable conditions.

Meyka’s own disclaimer stresses that these are model‑based forecasts, not guarantees, and that results depend heavily on upcoming earnings and macro conditions — a critical reminder for investors not to rely solely on AI projections.

Intellectia: short‑term neutral‑to‑bullish with wide 2026 range

Intellectia’s BNS forecast page takes a different tack, blending technical signals, short‑selling data, and long‑term statistical modeling: ^[44]

As of early December 2, 2025, the technical signals tally 3 buys and 2 sells, with:
- Price above the 5‑day moving average.
- 5‑day above 20‑day, and 20‑day above 60‑day.
- 60‑day above 200‑day — a fully bullish moving‑average stack.
Short‑selling data as of November 28 shows a short sale ratio of 10.68%, down from the previous day, which Intellectia interprets as possible short‑covering.
The AI 1‑month price prediction is about US$69.44, implying a very modest +0.21% move from late‑November levels — essentially a “steady as she goes” forecast.
For 2026, Intellectia projects monthly average prices in a wide band between roughly US$50 and US$65, with minimum forecasts dipping into the high US$30s and highs into the low US$70s.

Intellectia also notes that historically, November has been the best month for positive returns in BNS (around a 61.5% probability of a gain), while December’s odds are more balanced at ~54%. ^[45]

Again, these are statistical projections, not investment advice — helpful for framing potential volatility, but they should sit beside, not above, fundamental analysis.

Fundamental backdrop: how strong is Scotiabank heading into Q4?

Scotiabank’s Q3 2025 results, released on August 26, set a constructive tone: ^[46]

Reported net income:C$2.53 billion, up from C$1.91 billion in Q3 2024.
Reported diluted EPS:C$1.84, vs C$1.41 a year earlier.
Adjusted diluted EPS:C$1.88, vs C$1.63 in Q3 2024.
Adjusted ROE:12.4%, up from 11.3% a year ago.
CET1 capital ratio:13.3%, indicating a strong capital position.

By business segment:

Canadian Banking delivered adjusted earnings of about C$959 million, up sharply from the prior quarter, helped by margin expansion and deposit mix. ^[47]
International Banking generated roughly C$716 million in adjusted earnings, with positive operating leverage and improving profitability metrics. ^[48]
Global Wealth Management and Global Banking & Markets both saw double‑digit earnings growth, supported by higher mutual‑fund fees, brokerage revenue, and strong capital‑markets performance. ^[49]

Combine that with:

A planned buyback of up to 20 million common shares. ^[50]
The KeyCorp stake, now contributing tens of millions of dollars per quarter. ^[51]
The newly closed Davivienda transaction, which reduces low‑scale operations while preserving regional exposure via an associate stake. ^[52]

And BNS looks fundamentally solid heading into Q4, with robust capital, improving profitability, and several strategic levers to drive future earnings.

The flip‑side, as GuruFocus points out, is that:

Scotiabank’s leverage is relatively high, with a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 3.6–5.7x depending on the measure.
Its beta around 1.2 implies higher volatility than the overall market. ^[53]

So the bank is well‑positioned but not risk‑free.

Key risks to the BNS stock thesis

Even fans of Scotiabank should keep several risk factors in mind:

Valuation risk
- BNS is trading near its 52‑week high and on elevated valuation multiples vs its own history. ^[54]
- The sector is priced at a 23% premium to its decade‑long average forward P/E, which leaves banks vulnerable to any earnings disappointment, negative guidance, or uptick in credit stress. ^[55]
Credit and housing risk
- Canadian households face higher mortgage payments as fixed‑rate loans reset, raising concerns about delinquencies and loan losses. ^[56]
- Analysts are increasingly worried about private credit and non‑bank lenders, where rapid growth and limited disclosure could mask risks that might eventually spill back into the banking system. ^[57]
Interest‑rate and margin risk
- Central banks are edging toward rate cuts, which could pressure net interest margins over time.
- Scotiabank has cut its Canadian prime rate several times in 2024–25, which supports borrowers but may weigh on interest income unless offset by volume growth. ^[58]
Execution risk in Latin America and the U.S.
- The Davivienda transaction reduces operational risk in Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama, but Scotiabank still needs to realize value from its 20% stake while absorbing the C$300 million FX translation loss in Q1 2026. ^[59]
- The KeyCorp stake ties part of Scotiabank’s earnings to the fortunes of a U.S. regional bank, adding another layer of cross‑border exposure — albeit one that has boosted near‑term earnings. ^[60]
High payout ratio
- A dividend payout above 80% plus buybacks limit how much capital can be retained to absorb shocks or fund growth. If credit conditions worsen, regulators or management could opt to slow buybacks or hold the dividend flat.

Is Bank of Nova Scotia stock a buy, hold or sell now?

Only you can decide how BNS fits into your portfolio, but the market’s message right now is fairly clear:

Wall Street consensus:Hold, with average TSX price targets below the current share price but a few bullish outliers up to C$108. ^[61]
Income profile: A 4.5% dividend yield from a large, systemically important bank with strong capital is attractive for long‑term income‑oriented investors who can tolerate cyclicality.
Growth and total‑return potential: AI and analyst forecasts suggest modest further upside over the next year and potential for mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit annualized returns over a multi‑year horizon — but only if earnings stay strong and credit stays contained. ^[62]

In practical terms:

If you’re seeking yield and are comfortable with bank‑sector risk, BNS can still make sense as part of a diversified income portfolio, especially if you’re investing on multi‑year time horizons.
If you’re a strict value investor hunting for deep discounts, BNS at current levels is no longer cheap; you might prefer to wait for either a pullback or a step‑change improvement in fundamentals.
If you’re a short‑term trader, the upcoming Q4 earnings release and Davivienda integration updates are likely to be major volatility events. Overbought technicals suggest the reaction could be sharp in either direction.

In all cases, it’s important to match any investment in BNS to your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio objectives, and to consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making large or concentrated bets.