Barclays PLC Stock (LON: BARC, NYSE: BCS) in December 2025: 60% Rally, Buybacks, Stress‑Test Win and a Big Wealth‑Management Bet

Barclays has gone from “cheap UK bank” to one of 2025’s standout large‑cap performers. As of 9 December 2025, the stock is trading near multi‑year highs, powered by aggressive share buybacks, a robust Bank of England stress‑test result, and speculation over a major wealth‑management acquisition — all against a softening UK consumer backdrop and a looming interest‑rate cutting cycle. ^[1]

This article brings together the key news, forecasts and analysis around Barclays PLC stock as of 9 December 2025, for both London‑listed BARC and New York‑listed ADR BCS.

Barclays share price in December 2025: a top FTSE 100 performer

By early December, Barclays PLC (LON: BARC) is changing hands at around 437p, after closing at 437.0p on 8 December on the London Stock Exchange. That puts the shares very close to their 52‑week high (roughly 444p) and up dramatically from a 52‑week low near 224p. ^[2]

On a total‑return basis, including dividends, Barclays is up about 63% over the 12 months to 1 December 2025, placing it among the top 10 performers in the FTSE 100 this year, alongside names like Fresnillo, Airtel Africa, Lloyds and Standard Chartered. ^[3]

The U.S.‑listed ADR (NYSE: BCS) tells a similar story. The ADR recently closed around $23.2, near its 52‑week high of about $23.6, with a one‑year gain of roughly 70–72%. ^[4]

In other words: Barclays has already had the kind of year most bank shareholders dream about. The question for investors now is whether December’s news flow and 2026 forecasts justify more upside or suggest a pause for breath.

This week’s big news for Barclays (9 December 2025)

1. Barclays spending data shows UK households cutting back

Barclays’ own payments data is front‑page macro news today. Spending on the bank’s credit and debit cards fell 1.1% year‑on‑year in November, the sharpest drop since February 2021, signalling a clear consumer slowdown heading into Christmas. ^[5]

Key takeaways from the card‑spending report:

• Black Friday was busy, but not enough to offset weak demand across the month.
• Non‑food retail spending barely grew (around 0.1%), while food sales rose about 3% but lagged inflation.
• Pubs, bars and alcohol‑related spending were weak, especially among younger adults, while travel and digital subscriptions remained resilient. ^[6]

For Barclays shareholders, this matters because it raises questions about 2026 credit quality. Softer household spending can mean rising arrears later, especially after a multi‑year rise in interest rates. Barclays’ economists already describe 2025 as a year of economic “slowdown”, and today’s data reinforces that narrative. ^[7]

2. Bank of England stress test: Barclays passes with room to spare

Just days before, the Bank of England published its 2025 Bank Capital Stress Test, and Barclays came out looking comfortably resilient.

According to Barclays’ own disclosure and subsequent analysis:

• Under the BoE’s severe stress scenario, Barclays’ Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio bottoms out at about 9.3%, still well above the 7.2% minimum requirement. ^[8]
• The leverage ratio falls to around 4.2% under stress, versus a regulatory minimum of 3.25%. Actual leverage is closer to 4.9%. ^[9]
• Sector‑wide, the BoE concludes that UK banks could continue to support lending even if conditions turn “materially worse than expected”, and capital requirements for several banks, including Barclays, are being trimmed modestly as a result. ^[10]

The stress‑test result is crucial context for Barclays’ aggressive capital‑return policy. It signals that regulators are comfortable with the bank returning more capital to shareholders while still meeting tougher post‑crisis standards.

3. Barclays eyes Evelyn Partners in a £2.5bn wealth‑management push

The most eye‑catching strategic story this week is the potential acquisition of Evelyn Partners, one of the UK’s largest independent wealth managers.

Multiple reports, citing people familiar with the matter, say: ^[11]

• Barclays is preparing a non‑binding bid by 10 December 2025.
• Evelyn Partners, backed by private‑equity owners Permira and Warburg Pincus, could fetch more than £2.5bn.
• The firm manages roughly £63bn of client assets and focuses on affluent UK clients.
• Other potential bidders include NatWest, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Canada, indicating intense competition for fee‑rich, capital‑light wealth businesses.

For Barclays, already positioning itself as a “transatlantic consumer and wholesale bank” with a growing private‑bank and wealth franchise, Evelyn would meaningfully deepen its mass‑affluent footprint and add a large pool of assets under management. ^[12]

However, a deal of that size would also raise questions:

• How does it sit alongside Barclays’ commitment to keep CET1 in a 13–14% range? ^[13]
• Will shareholders tolerate a large M&A deal so soon after a big re‑rating in the shares?
• Can management integrate another complex business while simultaneously restructuring the investment bank and cutting costs? ^[14]

For now, the deal is only at the “exploring options” stage — but it’s a central reason Barclays is back on front pages this week.

4. Share buybacks: fresh cancellations and a £1.5bn capital‑return story

On 8 December, Barclays released a “Transaction in Own Shares” announcement confirming it bought 2,274,031 ordinary shares on 5 December at an average price of about 439.75p, for cancellation. That brings total purchases since the current buyback began on 23 October to 17,064,695 shares, leaving total issued share capital just under 13.9bn shares. ^[15]

This is part of a broader plan:

• In October, alongside Q3 results, Barclays launched a new £500m buyback on top of an earlier £1bn programme, taking announced 2025 buybacks to around £1.5bn. ^[16]
• The bank has previously signalled a goal to return at least £10bn to shareholders over 2024–26 via dividends and buybacks, with a clear “preference for buybacks”. ^[17]

Buybacks at these levels have two important implications:

1. Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share can grow faster than profits, as the share count shrinks.
2. They send a strong signal that management believes the shares are still undervalued relative to Barclays’ capital position and earnings power.

5. Best Egg acquisition: US consumer push and more fee income

Another key strategic move — still very much in the current news cycle — is Barclays’ agreement to acquire Best Egg, a U.S. personal‑loan originator and servicing platform, for about $800m. ^[18]

Highlights of the Best Egg deal:

• Best Egg services around $11bn of loans and is expected to originate more than $7bn of new loans in 2025. ^[19]
• Barclays plans to securitise most of the loans, keeping only a small slice on its balance sheet and earning servicing and structuring fees rather than loading up on risk‑weighted assets. ^[20]
• The deal is expected to be ROTE‑accretive by 2027 and is funded largely by the sale of receivables from the bank’s discontinued American Airlines credit‑card portfolio. ^[21]

In short, Best Egg fits the same strategic theme as the Evelyn Partners pursuit: grow capital‑light, fee‑rich businesses while using surplus capital and disposals to support shareholder payouts.

Q3 2025 earnings: higher income, heavier provisions

Barclays’ latest reported quarter (Q3 2025) underpins much of the current bullishness — but also explains some lingering scepticism.

Income and profitability

In Q3 2025:

• Pre‑tax profit came in at about £2.1bn, down 7% year‑on‑year, mainly due to higher litigation and credit‑impairment charges. ^[22]
• Attributable profit to shareholders was about £1.46bn. ^[23]
• Underlying income grew solidly — Barclays’ own disclosures and third‑party summaries point to around 9–11% year‑on‑year growth in group income, with particularly strong trends in UK retail, UK corporate banking and U.S. consumer. ^[24]

Management used the Q3 print to upgrade guidance:

• 2025 Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE): now guided to “greater than 11%”, up from “around 11%”.
• 2026 RoTE target: maintained at >12%.
• Group income target: around £30bn by 2026.
• Net interest income (NII) from interest‑earning businesses (excluding the investment bank and head office) upgraded to more than £12.6bn for 2025. ^[25]

Provisions, litigation and private‑credit risk

The drag on Q3 profits came from a cluster of one‑off and quasi‑one‑off issues:

• Barclays increased its provision for historic motor‑finance commission mis‑selling to around £325m, up from £90m, after reviewing the Financial Conduct Authority’s proposed redress scheme. ^[26]
• The bank also booked about £110m of impairment charges linked to the collapse of U.S. subprime auto lender Tricolor, which has become a poster‑child for risks in the fast‑growing private‑credit market. ^[27]
• Barclays disclosed roughly £20bn of exposure to private credit, or around 6% of its loan book, and has spent some time reassuring investors and regulators that it lends mainly to “experienced managers with a strong track record”. ^[28]

These issues are manageable relative to Barclays’ capital base, but they remain central to the bear case: if the UK consumer and private‑credit cycles both turn down sharply, provisions could stay elevated into 2026.

Capital and regulation: how strong is the balance sheet?

Between BoE stress‑test results and Barclays’ own disclosures, the capital story looks robust:

• Actual CET1 ratio was around 14.1% in Q3 2025, up from 13.6% at end‑2024, comfortably within the group’s 13–14% target range. ^[29]
• Under the 2025 stress test, Barclays’ stressed CET1 fell to 9.3%, still above both the bank’s hurdle rate and the 7.2% system‑wide minimum. ^[30]
• The stressed leverage ratio stayed at about 4.2%, again materially above the 3.25% minimum. ^[31]
• The BoE’s December Financial Stability Report concluded that no major UK bank would fall below minimum capital thresholds in the stress scenario, enabling an overall easing of capital requirements for the sector. ^[32]

In practice, this means Barclays can plausibly continue running sizeable buybacks — and still explore deals like Best Egg and Evelyn Partners — without tripping regulatory wires, provided earnings hold up.

A strategy reset: cost cuts, restructuring and fee‑based growth

Barclays’ management has spent much of 2024–25 trying to convince investors that the bank isn’t just a leveraged bet on interest rates.

Key strategic planks:

• Cost‑cutting and restructuring: Barclays is mid‑way through a plan to achieve about £2bn of gross efficiency savings by 2026, much of it focused on the investment bank. Thousands of roles have already gone since 2023, with more than 200 additional investment‑bank jobs reportedly cut in 2025, and external consultants (including McKinsey) drafted in to find further savings. ^[33]
• Rebalanced business mix: the strategy is to lean on UK retail and corporate banking, payments and U.S. consumer (including Best Egg) while simplifying the more volatile parts of the investment bank. ^[34]
• Capital‑light, fee‑rich businesses: Best Egg, the potential Evelyn Partners acquisition and Barclays’ own wealth and private‑bank franchise all push in the same direction — towards more stable fee income and servicing fees, and away from balance‑sheet‑intensive trading and lending. ^[35]

This is the backdrop against which analysts have been revising their targets and ratings throughout late 2025.

Analyst ratings and stock forecasts for Barclays (2026 view)

London‑listed BARC

Across UK and European brokers, sentiment on Barclays PLC (LON: BARC) is broadly positive:

• MarketBeat data (covering a subset of London analysts) shows a 12‑month average target price around 446p, with estimates ranging roughly 380p–500p, implying only modest upside from current levels. ^[36]
• MarketScreener compiles a wider sample and reports a mean “Outperform” consensus from about 15 analysts, with an average target of around 454p, a high target of 525p and a low near 337p. ^[37]
• RBC Capital Markets, citing the Best Egg deal and better‑than‑expected earnings, recently raised its price target to 525p from 500p and maintained an Outperform rating. ^[38]
• Investing.com’s consensus snapshot shows 11 Buy, 3 Hold and 1 Sell recommendation on BARC, summarised as an overall “Buy” stance. ^[39]
• TipRanks data for London‑listed BARC suggests a “Strong Buy” consensus from nine analysts, with an average 12‑month target around 482.5p (range 440p–525p), implying roughly 10–12% upside from a price near 430p at the time of compilation. ^[40]

Not every house is wildly bullish: some brokers, including Deutsche Bank and Citigroup, have kept targets closer to 400p, warning that macro and regulatory risks could cap valuation multiples. ^[41]

U.S. ADR BCS

For Barclays ADR (NYSE: BCS):

• MarketWatch reports an average target of about $24.84 from 17 analysts, with an overall “Buy” recommendation. With the ADR recently trading in the low‑$23s, that suggests limited single‑digit percentage upside in the base case. ^[42]
• Quantitative screeners like FinViz show BCS on a trailing P/E around 9.5, price‑to‑book around 0.9, and a dividend yield just above 2%, alongside a roughly 70% one‑year share‑price gain — painting Barclays as a still‑cheap, high‑momentum bank stock. ^[43]
• Investor‑focused services such as Investor’s Business Daily recently flagged the ADR’s Composite Rating at 96 out of 99, with an EPS Rating of 80, signalling strong growth and price performance relative to the wider market, albeit with some deceleration in quarterly sales growth. ^[44]

Valuation models and “deep value” claims

Outside mainstream brokerage research, some model‑driven sites claim Barclays is deeply undervalued on discounted‑cash‑flow metrics, with implied “intrinsic value” figures several times the current share price. ^[45]

These kinds of outputs are highly sensitive to growth, discount‑rate and terminal‑value assumptions, and should be treated as scenario illustrations rather than precise price targets.

Valuation after the rally: still value stock, or fairly priced?

Even after a 60‑plus percent total return over the past year, many observers still argue Barclays trades on modest valuation metrics:

• Recent commentary notes that, despite the rally, the forward price‑to‑earnings multiple sits around 11–12x, below many U.S. money‑centre peers and slightly under the broader market. ^[46]
• The shares still change hands at less than book value (P/B <1), a long‑standing feature of European and UK banks, albeit less extreme than in the post‑Brexit doldrums. ^[47]
• Dividend yields in the 2–3% range look modest for a bank, but when combined with regular buybacks and targeted RoTE above 11–12%, the total‑capital‑return story is compelling if management delivers. ^[48]

Retail‑investor commentary — including several recent articles asking whether Barclays is “still a bargain” after a 63% share‑price surge or whether it can “keep defying gravity” — captures the mood perfectly: valuations look attractive on paper, but the easy money may already have been made. ^[49]

Key risks on the radar for 2026

Despite the positive momentum, several risk factors loom large in current analysis:

1. UK consumer and mortgage pressure
   • Barclays’ own card‑spending data confirms that households are already cutting back. ^[50]
   • A “mini price war” in UK mortgages, with Barclays among the lenders cutting rates, may squeeze net interest margins if rate cuts arrive faster than expected. ^[51]
2. Motor‑finance redress and regulatory overhang
   • The FCA’s motor‑finance investigation could ultimately cost the sector an estimated £11bn, with complaint handling now set to resume in May 2026. ^[52]
   • Barclays’ £325m provision may prove conservative or adequate, but until the redress framework is fully finalised and applied, tail‑risk remains hard to model. ^[53]
3. Private‑credit exposure and Tricolor‑style events
   • The £110m Tricolor loss is manageable, but it has put the spotlight on Barclays’ £20bn private‑credit exposure, and on questions about opacity and fraud risk in that market. ^[54]
4. Execution risk on cost cuts and acquisitions
   • Cutting billions from the cost base, reshaping the investment bank, integrating Best Egg and possibly Evelyn Partners — all while running large buybacks — is ambitious. If execution falters, the RoTE >12% by 2026 goal could slip. ^[55]
5. Tax and regulatory environment
   • UK banks still face relatively heavy sector‑specific taxes and evolving regulatory expectations, which can dampen valuation multiples versus U.S. peers even when profitability looks similar on paper. ^[56]

Bottom line: what 9 December 2025 means for Barclays investors

As of 9 December 2025, the Barclays investment story can be summarised in three layers:

• Cycle and macro: UK consumers are tightening belts, and the Bank of England is edging toward rate cuts. That eventually pressures net interest margins and raises questions about future impairments, particularly in unsecured lending. ^[57]
• Capital and resilience: Stress‑test results, high CET1 and leverage ratios, and modestly lower regulatory capital requirements give Barclays ample room to keep running meaningful buybacks and to pursue capital‑light deals like Best Egg and Evelyn Partners, assuming earnings stay roughly on track. ^[58]
• Valuation and expectations: After a 60‑plus percent rally, Barclays no longer looks like a distressed deep‑value play, but it still trades at single‑digit or low‑double‑digit earnings multiples, below book value and with a solid capital‑return plan. Consensus forecasts see moderate further upside rather than explosive gains, with scenarios ranging from “fairly valued” to “still meaningfully undervalued” depending on one’s view of credit, regulation and execution. ^[59]

For now, December’s mix of strong stress‑test results, ongoing buybacks, a potential flagship wealth‑management acquisition and credible 2026 RoTE targets explains why Barclays remains firmly on the radar for global investors — even as the macro clouds over UK consumers darken.

References

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