Barclays PLC (LSE: BARC, NYSE: BCS) is ending 2025 with the kind of momentum investors in UK banks haven’t seen in years. The share price is flirting with record territory, buybacks are running hot, and management is layering bold strategic moves on top of upgraded return targets.
As of late morning on 11 December 2025, Barclays shares in London were trading in the mid‑440p range, having set a new 52‑week high around 446.8p earlier in the session. Over the past year the stock has climbed roughly 64%, one of the strongest rallies in the FTSE 100’s financial sector. [1]
Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analyst views shaping the investment case for Barclays PLC as of 11 December 2025.
1. Share price snapshot: near the top of the range
London-listed shares (BARC.L)
- Last trade (mid‑session, 11 Dec 2025): about 441–445p, modestly higher on the day. [2]
- Intraday high: around 446.8p, a fresh 52‑week high. [3]
- 52‑week range: roughly 223.75p (low in April) to ~445p (high in December). [4]
- Market cap: about £61–62 billion. [5]
- Trading momentum: the stock recently crossed above its 200‑day moving average of ~371p, trading as high as 442.6p on heavy volume above 68m shares. [6]
U.S. ADR (BCS)
On the NYSE, Barclays’ American depositary receipts recently closed at $23.82, up almost 3% on the day, with modest pre‑market softness on 11 December. [7]
The move caps a powerful rerating: multiple UK commentary pieces note that Barclays’ share price is up more than 60% year‑to‑date, dramatically outpacing the wider FTSE 100 while still being portrayed as potentially undervalued. [8]
2. Buybacks front and centre: £1.5bn+ returned in 2025 and counting
The single most important storyline for Barclays’ equity this year is capital return.
2.1 HY 2025 £1bn buyback completed
Barclays completed a £1 billion first‑half 2025 share buyback at the end of November. Across that programme, the bank repurchased 262,093,958 shares at a volume‑weighted average price of about 381.5p, reducing the share count to roughly 13.91 billion. [9]
2.2 Q3 2025 £500m buyback under way
On 23 October 2025 Barclays launched a new buyback of up to £500 million, to follow directly after the HY programme. [10]
Regulatory filings and exchange notices show how aggressively that programme is being executed:
- A transaction in own shares RNS dated 8 December 2025 disclosed that the bank had bought back about 2.27 million shares on 5 December at around 440p per share. TechStock²+1
- The latest RNS on 11 December 2025 confirms that 2,723,521 shares were purchased on 10 December for cancellation under the Q3 buyback. [11]
- Taken together, disclosures indicate that since the 23 October launch of the current programme, Barclays has repurchased roughly 25.3 million shares at an average price in the mid‑430s. [12]
Each cancellation shrinks the share count and makes it easier for earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share to grow even if total profits are only stable.
2.3 The £10bn capital return promise
These buybacks are part of a wider commitment: management has repeatedly stated a target to return at least £10 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, mainly via buybacks rather than dividends. [13]
In its Q3 2025 results, Barclays also flagged a shift to quarterly buyback announcements, reinforcing the idea that regular repurchases – not occasional one‑off programmes – are now baked into the equity story. [14]
3. Q3 2025 results: upgraded guidance and double‑digit returns
Barclays’ Q3 2025 results, published on 22 October, set the foundation for the recent rally and buyback acceleration. [15]
3.1 Headline numbers
From the Q3 statement: [16]
- Income: £7.2bn, up around 9% year‑on‑year.
- Profit before tax: £2.1bn (slightly down vs Q3 2024, largely due to higher provisions).
- Group RoTE:10.6% for Q3; 12.3% year‑to‑date.
- Earnings per share:10.4p in Q3; 35.1p year‑to‑date.
- Cost:income ratio: 63% in Q3; 59% year‑to‑date, reflecting operating leverage.
- Loan‑loss rate: 57 bps in the quarter; 53 bps YTD, within the 50–60 bps “through‑the‑cycle” range.
- CET1 ratio:14.1%, or 13.9% pro‑forma for the £500m buyback announced alongside the results.
- Tangible net asset value (TNAV):392p per share.
Divisional highlights included strong income growth in Barclays UK and UK Corporate, modest but positive progress in Private Bank & Wealth, and solid performance in the Investment Bank, even as some advisory and capital‑markets fees lagged U.S. peers. TechStock²+1
The quarter was not without blemishes: Barclays took a £235m charge for UK motor‑finance redress and a further hit linked to the collapse of U.S. lender Tricolor. TechStock²+1
3.2 Upgraded guidance into 2025 and 2026
Despite those charges, management upgraded its 2025 and 2026 guidance: [17]
- 2025 Group RoTE: raised to “greater than 11%” (from about 11%).
- 2025 Group net interest income (ex‑investment bank and head office): raised to >£12.6bn.
- 2026 targets:
- RoTE above 12%,
- Group income around £30bn,
- Cost:income ratio in the high‑50s,
- £2bn of cumulative gross efficiency savings by 2026,
- Capital returns of at least £10bn over 2024–26.
The bank also signalled that new financial targets through 2028 will be unveiled with its FY25 results on 10 February 2026. [18]
4. Strategic deals: Best Egg and the Evelyn Partners bid story
Alongside buybacks, Barclays is reshaping its business mix with a tilt toward capital‑light, fee‑driven income – particularly in U.S. consumer finance and UK wealth management.
4.1 Best Egg: a $800m bet on U.S. consumer lending
On 28 October 2025, Barclays announced an agreement for its U.S. consumer banking arm to acquire Best Egg, a U.S. personal‑loan origination platform, for $800 million. [19]
Key points from the deal:
- Business model: Best Egg originates unsecured personal loans, servicing around $11bn of balances and having facilitated more than $40bn in loans for over two million customers. [20]
- Strategy: Barclays plans to securitise most of these loans (generating fee income) while keeping only a smaller slice on balance sheet – a deliberate push into capital‑light servicing rather than pure balance‑sheet lending. [21]
- Timing and capital impact: The acquisition is expected to close in Q2 2026, after Barclays completes the previously announced sale of its American Airlines co‑branded credit‑card receivables. Combined, the two transactions are projected to increase the Group CET1 ratio by around 6 bps, even though Best Egg alone will initially consume about 16 bps of capital. [22]
Analysts generally see Best Egg as a calculated pivot toward personal lending and fee‑based income in the U.S., compensating for some of the volatility in investment banking and card partnerships. The move also answers long‑standing criticism that Barclays lacked scale and differentiation in its U.S. consumer franchise. [23]
4.2 Evelyn Partners: potential UK wealth management acquisition
On 5 December 2025, Reuters reported that Barclays is exploring a bid for Evelyn Partners, one of the UK’s largest wealth managers, which could be valued above £2.5bn. [24]
Highlights from that coverage:
- Evelyn, formerly Tilney Smith & Williamson, oversees around £63bn in client assets. [25]
- Other potential bidders include NatWest, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Canada; no transaction is guaranteed. [26]
- For Barclays, a deal would deepen its reach into mass‑affluent wealth management, a segment seen as fee‑rich and capital‑light, complementing its existing private‑bank and wealth operations. TechStock²+1
Investors are weighing the strategic fit – stronger fee income and broader client relationships – against the capital commitment and integration risk. Barclays has spent the past two years convincing the market it can both invest for growth and return large sums of capital; a sizeable acquisition will be judged against that promise.
5. Capital strength: stress tests and credit ratings
5.1 Bank of England stress tests
On 2 December 2025, the Bank of England released the results of its latest stress tests, covering the seven largest UK lenders, including Barclays. All banks, Barclays included, remained above minimum regulatory capital requirements even under a scenario involving: [27]
- A severe global recession and a 5% contraction in UK GDP,
- Sharp falls in house prices (around 28%),
- A spike in interest rates to 8%, and
- A large jump in energy prices.
The BoE noted that Standard Chartered and Barclays ended the stress scenario with the lowest capital headroom among the cohort, but still above required buffers. It also cut the overall capital requirement for UK banks from 14% to 13%, freeing up some flexibility for future distributions. [28]
5.2 Credit ratings
Credit rating agencies continue to view Barclays as solidly investment‑grade:
- DBRS Morningstar rates Barclays PLC’s short‑term instruments R‑1 (low) with a Positive trend, signalling a strong short‑term credit profile. [29]
- According to Barclays’ own fixed‑income investor materials, S&P rates the holding company A‑2 short‑term, while key operating banks such as Barclays Bank PLC and Barclays Bank UK PLC are rated A‑1. [30]
These ratings, plus the strong CET1 ratio around 14%, give management room to keep running buybacks and pursue targeted M&A – provided asset quality and earnings remain on track. [31]
6. What analysts are saying: from ‘Moderate Buy’ to ‘Top Pick’
Analyst sentiment has turned decisively positive in 2025, and the recent rally has been accompanied – and in some cases led – by a steady stream of upgrades and higher price targets.
6.1 London consensus (LSE: BARC)
On TipRanks, which tracks London‑listed Barclays, the stock currently carries a “Strong Buy” consensus: [32]
- 9 analysts in the last three months: 8 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell.
- Average 12‑month price target:479.4p, implying about 10% upside from a reference price of 434.4p.
- Target range:440p (low) to 525p (high).
MarketBeat, which looks at UK coverage from another angle, reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on six analysts: five Buy and one Hold, with an average target of 445.8p. [33]
6.2 Key houses and target prices
Recent notable calls include:
- UBS: reiterated Buy, calling Barclays a “top pick” among European banks and raising its price target to 515p from 455p. UBS argues the bank is heading into 2026 with one of the sector’s most compelling growth profiles, forecasting 44% EPS growth by 2027 vs 2025, and still trades at roughly 7.9x 2026 and 6.9x 2027 earnings and about 1.1x TNAV. [34]
- RBC Capital: lifted its sterling price target to 525p from 500p and kept an “Outperform” rating, partly on the back of the Best Egg acquisition and improved long‑term earnings forecasts. FactSet data cited alongside the call points to an average London price target around 456p, meaning RBC sits toward the bullish end of the range. [35]
- JPMorgan: earlier in the autumn raised its target from 420p to 500p, and more recent commentary continues to rate the stock Overweight with a 500–525p target band, implying double‑digit upside from current levels. [36]
- Jefferies: increased its objective from 455p to 470p, with a Buy rating. [37]
- Citigroup: maintains a more cautious Neutral stance, with a target in the 415p area for the London line and a Hold recommendation on the OTC line (BCLYF). [38]
On the ADR (BCS) side, MarketWatch data point to an average rating of “Buy” with a consensus target around $25.06 from roughly 17 analysts, implying modest upside from current prices. [39]
Interestingly, the BCS forecast page on StockAnalysis shows a more dated picture – just one analyst and a “Hold” tag – but still embeds forecasts for robust revenue and EPS growth through 2026 (see next section). [40]
7. Earnings and valuation: still cheap after a 60% rally?
7.1 Revenue and EPS growth expectations
Consensus data compiled by StockAnalysis suggest analysts expect strong double‑digit earnings growth from Barclays over the next two years: [41]
- Revenue 2025: about £29.2bn, up 20.4% vs 2024.
- Revenue 2026: around £30.7bn, a further 5.1% increase.
- EPS 2025: roughly 0.43 (per ADR), up almost 25% vs 2024.
- EPS 2026: about 0.53, another 23% growth.
Those growth rates are broadly consistent with Barclays’ own guidance for RoTE rising above 11% in 2025 and 12% in 2026, assuming a relatively benign credit environment and continued cost control. [42]
7.2 Valuation metrics
Several data points help frame where Barclays trades today:
- MarketBeat puts BARC’s P/E ratio around 10.9x, with a market cap of about £61.4bn and a 50‑day moving average near 403p. [43]
- ValueInvesting.io, using peer P/E multiples, estimates a “fair value” of 615.9p per share for BARC, versus a current price of 442.25p – a 39.3% implied upside. Their fair‑value range runs from around 489p to 773p, implying the stock trades at the lower end of what comparable multiples would suggest. [44]
- That same analysis shows trailing P/E ratios mostly between 5x and 6x through late 2025, highlighting how quickly earnings have grown relative to the share price. [45]
On top of this, multiple UK investment articles – including coverage on Yahoo Finance and The Motley Fool – have repeatedly framed Barclays as a stock whose share price has soared (50–60% in a year) yet still screens as cheap on valuation models, especially versus historic price‑to‑book and price‑to‑earnings levels. [46]
Put simply: even after a huge run, many analysts and valuation screens still see meaningful upside, though the easy money from the early‑2025 lows has clearly already been made.
8. Macro backdrop and sector context
Barclays doesn’t operate in a vacuum; part of the bull case rests on a friendlier macro and regulatory setup for UK banks:
- The Bank of England’s stress tests confirmed that the big UK lenders can withstand a severe downturn and still meet capital requirements, and the BoE has trimmed the systemic capital buffer, effectively loosening constraints on bank balance sheets a little. [47]
- In October, Barclays’ stock jumped about 5% in a single session after the bank surprised the market with the £500m buyback and an upgrade to its RoTE guidance, helping lead a broader rally in UK bank shares as lower‑than‑expected inflation stoked hopes for rate cuts. [48]
- UK lenders overall are benefitting from still‑elevated interest margins, though markets are now looking ahead to a gentle easing cycle rather than more rate hikes.
This backdrop has turned banks like Barclays from value traps into genuine growth‑and‑income stories in the eyes of many global investors.
9. Key risks investors are watching
Despite the upbeat tone, there are several risks that feature prominently in research and news coverage:
- Credit quality and UK macro:
Higher rates, a cooling housing market and lingering cost‑of‑living pressures could drive higher impairments, especially in unsecured and SME lending. Barclays’ loan‑loss rate remains within its through‑the‑cycle range, but that assumption will be tested in a tougher macro scenario. [49] - U.S. consumer exposure and Best Egg:
The Best Egg deal tilts Barclays further into U.S. consumer lending. While the platform focuses on prime borrowers and a securitisation‑heavy model, any deterioration in U.S. credit or funding markets could weigh on returns or slow planned growth. [50] - Potential Evelyn Partners acquisition:
A successful bid would deepen fee income but could absorb several billion pounds of capital and pose integration challenges. Investors will scrutinise the price paid, projected synergies and the impact on the £10bn capital return roadmap. [51] - Regulatory and conduct risk:
The Q3 motor‑finance provision shows legacy issues can flare up unexpectedly. Further conduct charges (in motor finance or elsewhere) would directly erode capital and returns. [52] - Execution on cost and revenue targets:
Upgraded RoTE and income targets assume continued success on cost‑efficiency and stable or rising income. Any slippage—especially if capital markets revenues soften or structural hedge income fades—could cause analysts to trim earnings and price targets. [53]
10. Bottom line: Barclays PLC stock on 11 December 2025
As of 11 December 2025, Barclays PLC sits at an interesting crossroads:
- Price action: Shares are trading near all‑time or multi‑year highs, up around 60–65% over 12 months and having broken decisively above key moving averages. [54]
- Capital returns: A completed £1bn HY buyback, an ongoing £500m Q3 buyback, and a £10bn 2024–26 capital‑return framework give significant support to EPS growth and the share price. [55]
- Fundamentals: Q3 results showed solid top‑line growth, double‑digit RoTE, a CET1 ratio at the top of the target range, and upgraded profitability guidance. [56]
- Strategy: The Best Egg acquisition and potential Evelyn Partners bid indicate a pivot toward capital‑light fee businesses in U.S. consumer finance and UK wealth management. [57]
- External validation: The BoE’s stress tests, resilient credit ratings, and a chorus of analyst upgrades – with targets stretching to 515–525p – underpin a bullish institutional view. [58]
- Valuation: Despite the rally, independent valuation screens still suggest 10–40% upside depending on assumptions, and most brokers rate the shares Buy or Strong Buy, albeit with growing emphasis on execution risk after such a fast run. [59]
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