- Q3 results: Total income £7.2bn (+9% YoY, beating ~£7bn consensus) [1]; profit before tax £2.1bn (–7% YoY) after higher provisions [2].
- Year-to-date: Nine-month pre-tax profit £7.3bn (up 14% YoY) with attributable profit £4.98bn (+14%) [3], showing strong momentum.
- Buybacks: Announced a £500m share buyback in Q3 (added to £1bn H1 buybacks) and will make buybacks quarterly, as part of a £10bn shareholder return plan through 2026 [4] [5]. CET1 capital remains high (~14%) and RoTE guidance for 2025 was raised above 11% [6].
- Stock reaction: Barclays stock jumped ~2.6–3% on the news to about 374p [7]. The shares are up roughly 37% so far in 2025 (and 52% over the last year) [8]. At today’s levels, analysts’ average 12-month price targets (~416–425p) imply ~15–20% upside [9] [10].
- Analyst outlook: Market consensus remains a “Buy”. TipRanks notes a recent Barclays stock target of ~425p [11], and technical analysts similarly point to ~400–420p levels [12]. HSBC, Bank of America and others recently reiterated positive views on UK banks.
Strong Q3 results despite charges
Barclays’ Q3 results (to 30 Sept) surpassed expectations. Total income rose to £7.2bn, a 9% year-on-year increase [13], helped by robust trading and higher net interest income. This beat internal forecasts of around £7bn. However, Barclays took extra charges: it raised motor-finance redress provisions to £325m (an extra £235m provision) and also booked a £110m credit charge linked to the collapse of US auto-dealer Tricolor [14]. These drove pre-tax profit down to £2.1bn (–7% YoY) [15], roughly in line with analysts’ models.
In context Barclays’ year-to-date performance remains strong. Profit before tax for the first nine months was £7.3bn (from £6.4bn a year ago), with attributable profit up 14% to £4.98bn [16]. CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan highlighted this resilience, noting the bank’s “robustly and consistently generating capital for our shareholders” over the past quarters [17]. Return on tangible equity (RoTE) came in at about 10.6% for Q3 and 12.3% year-to-date [18]. Barclays responded by upgrading its 2025 RoTE target to above 11% and keeping 2026 guidance above 12% [19].
New buyback program boosts returns
One of the standout surprises was Barclays’ commitment to ramp up share buybacks. The bank announced a £500m share repurchase for Q3 [20], on top of the £1bn buyback it completed in H1. More notably, management said it will shift to quarterly buyback announcements going forward, accelerating its plan to return £10bn of capital to investors by 2026 [21] [22]. As a result, the pro-forma CET1 capital ratio (around 13.9%) remains strong even after the buyback. Barclays’ strategic focus on capital returns – skewed to buybacks rather than dividends – means a shrinking share count and rising per-share payouts over time [23] [24].
The buyback and strong capital position comforted investors. On Oct 22, Barclays shares jumped about 2.6% at the open to ~373.95p [25]. By midday the stock was up roughly 3%, lifting FTSE 100 bank indexes. Analysts note that with Barclays already delivering roughly half of its 2025 shareholder-return goal, dividends will also grow on a narrower share base [26]. In fact, Barclays paid a 3p half-year dividend and analysts expect around 10–10.5p total in 2025, implying a ~2.7–3% yield on today’s price.
Stock outlook and analyst sentiment
Despite near-term charges, most analysts remain bullish on Barclays’ equity. The consensus “Buy” rating reflects the lender’s diversified business mix and improving profitability. For example, RBC’s Benjamin Toms welcomed Barclays’ broad income streams given uncertainty around the UK budget, though he cautioned that its US corporate lending will face more scrutiny [27]. Matt Britzman at Hargreaves Lansdown sums up the view: “Barclays’ latest results show a bank quietly outperforming despite headline noise,” noting that the one-off motor-finance charge was largely anticipated by markets [28] [29].
Technicals and targets are upbeat. TS2 TechStock analysts note Barclays shares have climbed from the low 200p range earlier this year to the 370s, and chart patterns suggest momentum could carry toward ~400p [30]. TipRanks reports that the latest analyst price target is about 425p [31]. With Barclays trading around 374p post-results, that implies roughly 13% upside, plus an attractive yield. Several brokers (including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Citi) rate Barclays as a top UK bank pick for 2026. In short, the consensus is that today’s pullback offers a buying opportunity, not a warning signal [32] [33] – analysts believe underlying fundamentals remain intact.
Sources: Barclays Q3 reports and market reaction [34] [35] [36]; City A.M., Reuters, TechStock² and TipRanks analysis [37] [38] [39].
References
1. www.cityam.com, 2. www.cityam.com, 3. ts2.tech, 4. www.cityam.com, 5. www.ii.co.uk, 6. ts2.tech, 7. www.cityam.com, 8. www.ii.co.uk, 9. ts2.tech, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. ts2.tech, 13. www.cityam.com, 14. www.cityam.com, 15. www.cityam.com, 16. ts2.tech, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. ts2.tech, 19. ts2.tech, 20. www.cityam.com, 21. www.cityam.com, 22. www.ii.co.uk, 23. www.ii.co.uk, 24. www.cityam.com, 25. www.cityam.com, 26. www.ii.co.uk, 27. www.cityam.com, 28. www.cityam.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. ts2.tech, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. ts2.tech, 33. ts2.tech, 34. www.cityam.com, 35. www.cityam.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.cityam.com, 38. ts2.tech, 39. www.tipranks.com
