Updated: November 11, 2025
Key points
- Close: Barclays (LSE: BARC) ended Tuesday at ~425.6p, up ~2% day‑on‑day, with Hargreaves Lansdown’s closing tape showing +8.30p (+1.99%) and bid/offer 425.55p/425.65p. That sets a new 52‑week high around 426p. [1]
- Fresh corporate action: Barclays continued its daily buyback execution, confirming 2,649,035 shares purchased on Nov. 10 (VWAP 415.2457p) for cancellation, part of the programme announced July 30. [2]
- Bigger picture: Since launch, the bank has retired 225,459,912 shares at a VWAP ~377.26p, underscoring consistent buyback support for the stock. [3]
- Funding signal: On Monday, Barclays re‑opened the euro AT1 market for itself for the first time since 2014, drawing strong orders—a sign of improving risk appetite for bank capital. [4]
- Context: The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 4% on Nov. 6 and signalled that cuts could proceed gradually if disinflation continues, a backdrop that has supported lenders’ valuations. [5]
- Performance: Barclays is up ~56% year‑to‑date and ~66% over 12 months, vastly outpacing the FTSE 100 over the same period. [6]
What happened today (Nov. 11, 2025)
Barclays shares extended Monday’s momentum, pushing to a new 12‑month high near 426p and closing just shy of that mark. Real‑time pricing on Reuters showed intraday prints in the 425p–426p band, with previous close at 417.25p. Hargreaves Lansdown’s end‑of‑day snapshot recorded a +1.99% gain for the session. The FTSE 100 also finished firmer, providing a supportive backdrop for UK large‑cap financials. [7]
A tangible near‑term catalyst was an RNS this morning: Barclays confirmed that on Nov. 10 it bought back 2,649,035 shares for cancellation (VWAP 415.2457p; high 417.95p; low 410.70p). Regular buybacks have tightened the free float at a time of improving sentiment toward UK banks. [8]
Why the rally has legs
1) Continuous buybacks
The current programme—running since July 30—has already retired 225.46m shares at a VWAP ~377.26p. Mechanical demand from daily executions can support the share price on weak days and amplify moves on strong days, especially when liquidity is thin outside peak trading hours. [9]
2) Capital‑markets confidence via AT1
On Nov. 10, Barclays mandated and drew strong orders for a euro‑denominated Additional Tier 1—its first such euro AT1 since 2014. Successfully tapping this market signals robust investor appetite for the bank’s capital stack and typically lowers perceived funding risk, an equity positive. [10]
3) Macro tailwinds from the BoE
The BoE’s Nov. 6 decision to hold Bank Rate at 4% while flagging a gradual path to future cuts if disinflation persists has eased discount‑rate pressure on financials. That macro shift, coupled with stabilising inflation dynamics, helps underpin higher fair‑value multiples for UK lenders. [11]
The numbers behind the narrative
- Closing levels:425.55p/425.65p (bid/offer) at the close, +1.99% on the session (Hargreaves Lansdown). Intraday high ~426p on Reuters, marking a fresh 52‑week peak. [12]
- Momentum:YTD +55.64%; 1‑year +65.95% (Yahoo Finance performance table). [13]
- Corporate action today:2.65m shares bought back on Nov. 10; all to be cancelled. [14]
What analysts and market watchers are saying
- Jefferies recently lifted its price target to 470p, citing operating progress and the improving UK backdrop. Citi nudged to 415p, and RBC has highlighted an Outperform stance with commentary around a 500p fair‑value path in recent weeks. While methodologies differ, the consensus direction has been upward into Q4. [15]
- In a widely‑shared read crossing Yahoo Finance, a Motley Fool UK piece that polled ChatGPT suggested a year‑end range of 420p–430p when the shares were near 404p on Nov. 10—a band the stock has effectively entered with today’s close. (AI “forecasts” aren’t investment advice, but they reflect how sentiment has shifted.) [16]
Risks to watch
- Credit and conduct charges: Q3 showed that one‑offs still happen (e.g., motor‑finance provision; exposure to stressed U.S. borrowers), and any new provisions could temper capital returns. [17]
- Policy path uncertainty: Markets are pricing easier policy, but a stickier inflation backdrop or a slower‑than‑hoped disinflation path could delay rate cuts, compressing valuation multiples. [18]
- Funding conditions: While the AT1 order book was encouraging, re‑pricing in hybrid markets can be swift if macro or sector‑specific shocks re‑emerge. [19]
Outlook: What could move BARC next
- Execution of the buyback through year‑end (and any top‑up or 2026 guidance). [20]
- BoE commentary/data between now and December’s meeting; any sign that rate‑cut timing is accelerating or slipping. [21]
- Funding prints (pricing, sizes, investor mix) following the euro AT1; further moves in the capital stack (e.g., redemptions/tenders) that might lower cost of capital. [22]
- Follow‑through from Q3: Barclays’ £500m buyback and ROTE upgrades set a higher bar; delivery on cost saves and stable IB revenues will be scrutinised. [23]
Bottom line
Barclays just logged a new 12‑month high and closed near 426p on Nov. 11. The combination of ongoing buybacks, a re‑opened euro AT1 window with strong demand, and a friendlier BoE backdrop has driven a powerful rerating in 2025. With YTD and 1‑year gains of ~56% and ~66%, respectively, the stock is no longer “cheap on last year’s numbers”—but if management delivers on capital returns and operating targets, the case for holding the breakout remains intact into year‑end. As ever, policy surprises and fresh credit costs are the swing factors. [24]
Sources: Hargreaves Lansdown closing tape; Reuters live quote and ranges; Barclays RNS via Refinitiv/Investegate; Bloomberg reporting on the AT1 sale; Bank of England November Monetary Policy Report; Yahoo Finance performance data; recent analyst target updates. [25]
This article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets move quickly; always check live data before trading.
References
1. www.hl.co.uk, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.investegate.co.uk, 4. news.bloomberglaw.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.investegate.co.uk, 10. news.bloomberglaw.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.hl.co.uk, 13. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. uk.finance.yahoo.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 19. news.bloomberglaw.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. news.bloomberglaw.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.hl.co.uk, 25. www.hl.co.uk
